Springboks v England prediction: Rassie Erasmus’ side to blow the English away in ‘bloody’ and ‘painful’ Ellis Park showdown
Ox Nche and Joe Heyes will face off in the Springboks v England fixture on Saturday.
Eight years ago, England walked into Ellis Park, scored 24 unanswered points in 20 minutes, and still lost. That 42-39 epic in June 2018 was the first Test of the Rassie Erasmus era, the first of Siya Kolisi’s captaincy, and the start of a run that has since delivered back-to-back World Cups.
On Saturday, England return to the scene of the crime for the first time since, and they do so as the opening act of the inaugural Nations Championship, in front of a Johannesburg crowd that has waited eight years to renew hostilities.
The build-up has been unkind to the visitors. England arrive off the back of their worst Six Nations campaign in history, one win from five and a first defeat to Italy in 33 meetings, whilst the Springboks warmed up by putting 80 points on the Barbarians in Gqeberha. Erasmus, who draws level with Jake White’s record of 54 Tests in charge this weekend, has resisted any temptation to blood his new generation and instead named a starting XV containing just one player with fewer than 20 caps.
Cheslin Kolbe and Damian Willemse both win their 50th caps, Manie Libbok gets the keys at fly-half in the absence of the injured Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, and Handre Pollard, England’s eternal tormentor, does not even make the 23. Erasmus has made no secret of the emotional charge either, saying the double milestone “will certainly add to our motivation this week”.
Steve Borthwick has sprung selections of his own. Jamie George captains the side from hooker, Jack van Poortvliet is, surprisingly, preferred to Alex Mitchell or Ben Spencer at scrum-half, Fin Smith wears the 10 shirt, and Tom Curry returns to openside with Henry Pollock held on the bench as a second-half accelerant. The history makes grim reading for England: 47 meetings since 1906, 29 Springbok wins, 16 English, two draws, and four South African victories in the last five, two of them World Cup knockouts. In Johannesburg the picture darkens further: England‘s only win in this city came at Ellis Park in 1972. The most recent meeting, a 29-20 Bok win at Twickenham in November 2024, followed the familiar pattern of English endeavour dismantled by South African brute force.
Where the game will be won
Start, as ever against the Springboks, at the set-piece. The Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, Thomas du Toit front-row is the finest scrummaging unit in world rugby, with the reigning World Rugby Player of the Year at its heart, and behind it Eben Etzebeth returns from a hip complaint to bring his 141 caps of malice to the engine room.
England’s scrum was genuinely excellent in Paris in March, seven tries and a forward performance that deserved more than a last-minute Thomas Ramos penalty, and Ellis Genge has long insisted his set-piece can go toe-to-toe with anyone. Saturday is where that theory meets 1,753 metres of altitude and the most ruthless scrummaging culture on the planet.
The lineout is where England’s one genuine structural opportunity lies. With Franco Mostert and Lood de Jager unavailable and Riley Norton released injured, Erasmus carries no second-row cover on his bench, meaning Pieter-Steph du Toit shifts to lock the moment Etzebeth or Ruan Nortje departs. George Martin, so effective against Etzebeth in the 2023 World Cup semi-final, returns from 14 months out alongside Alex Coles and Ollie Chessum, and if England are to manufacture pressure anywhere, it is at that seam in the final half hour, particularly at maul time under the revised guidelines.
Then there is the collision, the contest South Africa prize above all others. Jasper Wiese, Du Toit and Etzebeth against Curry, Ben Earl and Chessum reads close to even on paper. But the Boks won the gainline war in the 2023 semi-final, won it again at Twickenham in 2024, and have picked a side built to win it a third time.
Finally, the aerial game, and this is the battleground Erasmus himself identified this week, noting the running and kicking threats emerging from the Prem. His back three of Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Willemse remains the most lethal kick-return unit in Test rugby. England’s entire selection at nine screams contestable kicking, and at altitude, where the ball flies further and hang times deceive, execution is everything. Kick well, and George Furbank and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso can compete. Kick loosely, and Willemse and Kolbe will run the returns back with interest until the scoreboard becomes embarrassing.
What they said
Borthwick kept his framing simple. “Playing South Africa at Ellis Park is one of the great Tests in world rugby,” said the England head coach, adding that he senses real excitement within the squad as they open their Nations Championship campaign.
Erasmus was respectful about the opposition and honest about his own side. The England squad, he noted, is young yet experienced, and the young players “will add fearlessness” to a group that reached a World Cup semi-final. He conceded that Borthwick’s tactical evolution makes preparation difficult, admitting that any read on England’s plan is “a guesstimate”. On the motivation running through his own camp, the double World Cup winner went deeper. “My biggest fear is not losing,” he said, explaining that what he truly fears is surrendering the togetherness South Africa has built. Asked about Pollock, the man the entire Republic wants flattened, Erasmus refused the bait, comparing the hype around the youngster to that around Feinberg-Mngomezulu and concluding that his output has been “exceptional”.
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Felix Jones, the former England assistant now back in the Bok camp and armed with a year of Pennyhill Park intelligence, saw this coming months ago. “The game here in the summer will be tasty,” said the Irishman, who insists England’s trajectory over two seasons has been upward regardless of the Six Nations wreckage.
Kolisi, who first captained his country against England on this very ground, called the armband “a really good feeling”, whilst Earl gave England’s most honest assessment of the stakes. “The currency of playing international sport, the currency is winning,” said the number eight, describing the fixture as a bucket-list occasion and revealing he has been preparing for this Test for nearly three weeks.
Players to watch
For England, all eyes fall first on Jack van Poortvliet, the most debated name on the team sheet. His selection over Mitchell is a statement of tactical intent: this is a gameplan with kicking at its heart, and Van Poortvliet’s boot is the reason he wears nine. The picture is more complicated than the selection suggests. From hand in loose play he is a genuine weapon, capable of changing games with his length and accuracy in open field, but his kicking from the base is another matter entirely: laborious in its wind-up, a brake on England’s tempo, and prone to the charge-down, an invitation the Springbok edge rush will accept with relish. Add a pass that remains the slowest of England’s scrum-half options, slow distribution that gives rush defences a picture of every first receiver, and against a Springbok blitz that feasts on slow ball, everything Fin Smith wants to do could be hampered before it starts. Has he sped up? His PREM performances suggest so, but Ellis Park will provide a brutal answer.
Tom Curry‘s return at openside is the emotional heartbeat of the England pack. There was a period between 2019 and 2021 when he was the best seven in the world, and injuries, surgeries and sheer accumulated mileage have dimmed that light. Facing Du Toit and Kolisi in their own cathedral is the sternest possible examination of whether the old Curry can be recovered.
Fin Smith, meanwhile, has the clearest brief of anyone in white. George Ford and Marcus Smith still circle in reserve, and with a World Cup 15 months away, the Northampton man has this window to make the shirt unarguably his own. Front-foot ball may be rare on Saturday, and what he does with scraps will tell Borthwick everything.
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For South Africa, Manie Libbok has the hardest job in the side. His brief from Erasmus is explicit: unlock an attack that has sometimes idled behind the game’s most dominant pack. His distribution and vision are beyond dispute, his place-kicking has been painstakingly rebuilt, and yet the question that has followed him since 2023 persists. Can he do it when the Test is tight and the air is thin?
Grant Williams is the stylistic contrast of the weekend: Bok pace against Pom plod. The fastest scrum-half in world rugby faces a different style of player in JVP, and if the Boks generate quick ruck ball through Wiese’s carries, Williams’ sniping could shred England’s fringe defence before the bench arrives.
Thomas du Toit brings a subplot of his own. The Bath tighthead has spent three seasons scrummaging against Ellis Genge, Beno Obano (albeit in training) and every loosehead England possess, and that Prem knowledge is now turned on the men he knows best.
Damian Willemse marks his 50th cap in the position where he is most dangerous, and Van Poortvliet’s kicking game might just prove to be his fuel. A loose box kick or a misjudged contestable is an invitation for the most instinctive counter-attacker in the game to light up his milestone afternoon.
Main head-to-head
An unusual head-to-head for a match stuffed with marquee names, and precisely the right one, because this collision decides the platform on which everything else is built. Joe Heyes has been one of English rugby’s quieter improvement stories. Once viewed as a solid Prem operator, the Leicester tighthead has transformed himself over two seasons into a genuine Test scrummager, his hit-and-chase markedly more aggressive, his bind stronger, his work in the loose unrecognisable from the 2022 vintage.
His reward is the hardest afternoon in the sport. Ox Nche is, by some distance, the best scrummaging loosehead in the world, a man who has dismantled Lions, French and All Black tightheads and made most of it look routine. The Springbok gameplan flows directly from him: Nche wins a penalty, Libbok kicks to the corner, Marx throws, the maul rumbles, and the scoreboard ticks without a backline movement ever being required.
If Heyes survives, and merely surviving would represent a triumph, England have a foothold in the match. If he is dismantled, the contest is effectively over by the hour mark. Hugely improved against the very best in the world: that is the story of England’s entire evening, and it starts here.
Prediction
England are better than their Six Nations suggested, and Earl is right that clarity has returned to their rugby. None of it will matter. The altitude, the hostility, the front-row, the aerial bombardment and the sight of Pollock, Marcus Smith and Luke Cowan-Dickie arriving off the bench into a game already slipping away will combine into something England simply will not cope with. The Springboks at Ellis Park, first Test of a season, with milestones to honour and a point to prove, are the closest thing world rugby has to a certainty. It will be bloody, it will be painful, and for this England group it might well prove to be rather chastening. South Africa 42-17 England
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The teams
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Zach Porthen, 19 Marco van Staden, 20 Cameron Hanekom, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Andre Esterhuizen, 23 Canan Moodie
England: 15 George Furbank, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Jack van Poortvliet, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Ollie Chessum, 5 George Martin, 4 Alex Coles, 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George (c), 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Beno Obano, 18 Asher Opoku-Fordjour, 19 Charlie Ewels, 20 Guy Pepper, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Alex Mitchell, 23 Marcus Smith
Date: Saturday, 4 July, 2026
Venue: Ellis Park Stadium, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 17:40 (local), 16:40 (UK), 17:40 (France), 17:40 (South Africa), 01:40 (5 July, AEST), 03:40 (5 July, New Zealand), 12:40 (Argentina), 00:40 (5 July, JST), 11:40 (EDT)
Referee: James Doleman (NZR)
Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace (IRFU), Pierre Brousset (FFR)
TMO: Richard Kelly (NZR)
FPRO: Olly Hodges (IRFU)
Broadcasters: ITV (United Kingdom), TF1 (France), Virgin Media Television (Republic of Ireland), Sky Italia (Italy), Wowow (Japan), Sky Sport (New Zealand), Nine Network / Stan Sport (Australia), SuperSport (South Africa)