Nick Easter: Why England can take ‘free shot’ against Springboks and claim victory but only if they contain ‘freak’ forward
The Springboks host England at Ellis Park on Saturday.
England land on the Highveld four defeats deep, and that is the best thing they have going for them. Nobody expects a thing.
The pressure that has weighed on them through this run has gone, and when it goes the shackles tend to go with it. We saw it in Paris, where they chased France to 48-46 with the freedom the Northampton spine plays with when nobody is sitting on it. That is the England I want at altitude, the one that stops nursing the game from its own half and backs its pace.
The 48-46 needs context before anyone swings it at South Africa. France’s defence is poor right now, the line speed slow and the system disjointed with Shaun Edwards pushed to the margins, and England were not the only side to help themselves. Scotland put 50 on the same team. France won that night on their attack and their transition, the speed they turn broken field into points, and little else. The same flattering runs across all four defeats. Even the tries against Wales came with Wales down to 14, and once to 13. England’s evidence that they can open a side up is built on broken defences and missing men. South Africa give you neither. Their defence is hard and organised, set up to deny exactly the space France and a short-handed Wales left lying about. England will have to make their own space here, because none will be handed to them.
South Africa have picked close to their strongest side, which is a compliment in itself. It is a first hit-out of the season for plenty of them, but the spine is settled. The back-row has been together for years, the second-row carried most of the autumn, and the front-row is huge and picked to go after England early. Men who have packed down in Test after Test alongside each other hold a real edge this early in a cycle.
Size of England’s problem
Look hard at that pack and you see the size of England‘s problem. Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese in the back-row, Eben Etzebeth anchoring the second, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nché and Thomas du Toit across the front. You do not out-muscle that, and it does not ease off when the bench empties. South Africa build their games to be won in the last quarter, when fresh giants arrive and the collisions start to tell. Parity early will not be enough on its own. England have to bank territory and points while they are fresh, because the longer this stays a straight forward contest the more it tilts South Africa’s way.
Their one real question is the same one any side carries in a first game, which is cohesion. The fly-half is part of that. Manie Libbok lifts everything when the tempo is up and the ball is alive, and his management can wobble when it tightens. He was hauled off around the half-hour in the wet World Cup semi-final and Handre Pollard came on to win it, because a running 10 was the wrong tool for that night. Running rugby is the hardest game to switch on cold. It comes once a side has a game or two in the legs together, and South Africa do not have that yet. If it clicks they are close to unplayable. If it does not, there is a way in.
The scrum decides whether England can take it. Without parity at the set-piece they have no chance, and the man in their way is a freak. Nché is built low, around five foot eight against tightheads of six foot three, with the genetics the job asks for. He scrummages up off his inside leg, shuts the channel so the tighthead cannot get round him, and links through his hooker so the whole left side goes forward together. Very few looseheads still drive a scrum forward like that. The one chink is at the strike, the hit and the hook, and that is where England put their work. Get parity on South African soil and you hold a weapon for the last 20 minutes, when the game is tight and a scrum wins you penalties. Keep South Africa honest at the lineout too, deny them a clean platform, and the game opens up.
Selection is straightforward to me. Henry Pollock starts, and he and Ben Earl go in the same back-row. Build the tight five and the blindside round an Ollie Chessum-led group at four, five and six, and let seven and eight balance it. Give Tom Curry a rest. Picking him here is madness when he is already on tour and needs one, and there is nothing to gain spending that mileage on a series England can play with house money. Pollock and Earl bring the dog and the dynamism.
In midfield, pick Henry Slade at 13 and England get battered, simple as that. Go with Tommy Freeman at outside centre and Seb Atkinson inside him, two big men who stand up to South African carriers instead of being run through. Fin Smith is the obvious 10 and should have been for three years, and England have wasted hard-won caps not committing to him. Ben Spencer or Alex Mitchell does the job at nine.
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England win this with a kicking game and line speed, nothing fancier. Kick early, kick often, and refuse South Africa easy entries. Put it into the corners and behind a back three that has not been tested in months, make them turn and run back towards their own line, and England build pressure without playing the loose, offload-heavy game South Africa would happily defend all day. Then hunt in defence with volume and pace. Chase the fly-half who has not played in weeks, put his skills under pressure, force his decisions at speed before his side has found a rhythm. The 13 channel is where South Africa will try to play through you, so it has to hold. Stay disciplined at the breakdown too, because at Ellis Park the posts are in range from inside your own half and South Africa will not turn down three. None of it is easy up there, where the repeat efforts and the work up and back drain the legs in a way sea-level rugby never does. I expect South Africa to do little early, to sit on a tight territorial game and feel England out, and to cut loose only once the platform is laid. With Tony Brown already confirmed for New Zealand after the World Cup, even that licence may come with a touch more caution.
England need to front up
It matters beyond one Test, and England need to front up for the whole of it. Fiji at home is a far bigger test than some armchair fans believe, the kind of side that beats you up and embarrasses you the moment heads drop. Argentina away is harder still, a top-five contender on the road in their own backyard. Go nought from three and the screw tightens on Steve Borthwick, with the changes that have been threatening made, and made fast.
All of which is why this first game is the one to throw caution at. It is a free hit. Nobody has England down to win at Ellis Park, and that is exactly when a side with nothing to protect can do something special.
I have a funny feeling England could nick it. A side with nothing to lose and a yard of pace is dangerous on its day, and I felt the same before Paris. The honest counter is the one that settles most of these games. South African forward power, the weight and momentum of that pack, usually proves too much. If there is a way past it, it runs through the scrum and the kicking game, getting parity up front and making South Africa play under pressure on a day they have not yet found their cohesion.