France v Ireland prediction: Les Bleus to ‘kick off with a bang’ as ‘Paris factor’ drives Antoine Dupont’s men to statement victory
Antoine Dupont (left) and Jamison Gibson-Parl (right) will be at the heart of France v Ireland this week.
France and Ireland will go toe-to-toe in the opening fixture of the 2026 Six Nations, with both teams looking to show their title credentials against one of their main rivals.
The two Test heavyweights have held a duopoly over the Championship in recent years, with them splitting the past four titles between them equally, and they once again come into the 2026 edition with their sights firmly set on silverware.
You feel there is a tad more expectation on Les Bleus this year, given they come into it as defending champions. Fabien Galthie has also only heightened that following the shock omissions of stalwarts Gael Fickou, Gregory Alldritt and most notably Damian Penaud, with him starting to look for fresher options across his squad. However, they are boosted by the return of star man and captain Antoine Dupont after his ACL rupture, suffered in their previous outing against Ireland, while the likes of Matthieu Jalibert
Ireland, however, will still certainly be in the conversation come March, but there are questions over them as well. Despite finishing on a record of four wins from five, they finished the 2025 edition third in the table and were left hoping for results to go their way on the final weekend if they wanted to claim a third title in succession. Since then, they also endured a turbulent Autumn Nations Series campaign, notably losing to the Springboks, and also come into the Six Nations in the midst of a major injury crisis.
This clash in Paris gives both teams the chance to get their campaign off to the best possible start, while denting a key rival’s chances in the process.
Where the game will be won
As is the case whenever these sides meet, the battle between the forwards is likely going to define the outcome of the Test.
Be it around the park, the set-piece or even the benches – with both sides opting for a 6:2 split – whichever pack dominates the tight exchanges should set the platform for a big victory. Both groups have also undergone plenty of change ahead of this Championship, with a number of high-profile names missing for various reasons across the 23-man squads, but that only gives those new faces a chance to prove their value heading into the rest of the Six Nations and even further onto the 2027 World Cup.
Looking on paper, both sides seem pretty evenly matched, with the coaches seemingly meeting fire with fire. They both basically have four back-rowers on the pitch, with Charles Olivon and Tadhg Berine named as locks alongside their respective flankers and number eights, while also opting to have a major enforcer alongside them too, with Mickael Guillard and Joe McCarthy included from the off.
That just whets the appetite even more for what will be a huge battle up front.
Last time they met
What they said
Speaking ahead of the game, Fabien Galthie expressed his excitement at seeing Antoine Dupont back in the France jersey after nearly a year out of the side.
“Antoine Dupont is a plus, that’s for sure,” he said. “He’s a plus in many areas, but that means more demands to work harder to match his ambitions — and that’s why he’s our captain.”
“It means harder work collectively for the players around him, more commitment asked of the team to follow his captaincy and what he imposes on the team, both strategically and in terms of the intensity put on the opposition.”
The head coach also called for his side to improve their discipline this Championship, citing their issues in that area during the Autumn Nations Series.
“The figures showed that we were the most indisciplined team (in the autumn), the most penalised for offside.
“That was something that needed a lot of commitment from the players because they also had to change the way they tackle.
“And during these last 10 days, physically as well as psychologically, they really showed up.”
Ireland have already had to jump a number of hurdles heading into the Championship, but head coach Farrell insists his side are just controlling what they can.
“Well, so you (the media) keep on telling me, yeah, so I’ll take that,” he said when asked if this was his most challenging Six Nations campaign to date.
“It’s obvious why you guys (the media) say that, and who the favourites are and all of that.
“But it really doesn’t matter. To us, all we control are the controllables.
“We want to be as good a team as we can possibly be. If we’re pulling in the right direction and chasing that down, we need to prove to ourselves that we can also be the best team in the competition.”
Of his team selection, Farrell added: “I’ve been pleased with the application of the squad since we linked up last week and we’ve a good body of work under our belts from our training camp in Portugal as we face into an exciting test match against France. The Six Nations is an amazing tournament to compete in, and it brings out the best in players,” Farrell said.
“We have played at the Stade de France many times, and it’s a terrific stadium with an incredible atmosphere.
“We know from our experiences on the road how proud and vocal the travelling Irish support can be, and it’s a huge motivator for the squad knowing that we have so many Irish supporters behind us.”
Farrell has also named brothers Cian and Sam Prendergast in the same starting XV for the first time in a Test match, with this also the back-rowers’ Six Nations debut.
“It’s lovely,” Farrell said of the brothers starting together. “You can tell that they try to keep it on the down-low in front of all their team mates, but I’m sure behind the scenes, along with their parents, they’re as proud as punch.”
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Players to watch
A lot of the chat around France’s selection has been the inclusion of Matthieu Jalibert, but for what feels like the first time in his Test career, it’s entirely positive. The fly-half is in the form of his life right now, taking a starring role for Bordeaux-Begles on their quest for back-to-back Investec Champions Cup titles and a possible Top 14 trophy to go alongside it, and it’s that form which has catapulted him back into the starting XV following the injury to Romain Ntamack. This also feels like the best chance for him to fully show his quality at Test level, something which he hasn’t quite been able to do just yet for a number of reasons.
World Rugby Player of the Year nominee Louis Bielle-Biarrey is also going to be right at the forefront of this French performance. His electric pace off the mark simply leaves defenders chasing shadows, and if afforded time and space on the ball, he can be deadly. Like Jalibert, he has been in utterly breathtaking form for Bordeaux ahead of the Championship, and was also a genuine bright spark for Les Bleus across the Autumn Nations Series as well.
Up front, Francois Cros and Charles Olivon have proved themselves to be a real cornerstone of this French side across the past few years, and will need to once again step up to the plate to beat Ireland. Both men’s work rate around the park just helps France dominate those tight exchanges, and they back that up with superb work in the breakdown as well. They will also likely play a key role in the lineout.
There will once again be an intense spotlight on Sam Prendergast’s performance, given the continuing debate around the Irish number 10 jersey. Prendergast has held it for a good while now, dominating the battle during the Six Nations and later reclaiming it during the Autumn Nations Series, but he will have to put on a good display to keep the likes of Jack Crowley and Harry Byrne away from the starting XV next weekend. The Leinsterman’s defence will also certainly be tested to its full extent this weekend, with France’s midfield duo both relishing those hard lines against the grain, but that gives him a big opportunity to prove himself in that area.
Jacob Stockdale has also been given a golden ticket to once again nail his spot down in the Test side, deposing James Lowe in the process. The Ulster back has been in very good touch across the season to date, seemingly enjoying his role within their new-look attack, but with him replacing a stalwart like Lowe, he will need to have a big impact on proceedings if he wants to keep the jersey moving forward. One thing that will be interesting to see is the sort of freedom he’s given to float around the backfield, given he’s spent most of the season with 15 on his back, but that could actually add a lot to the Ireland attack.
Caelan Doris, Tadhg Beinrne and Dan Sheehan will also need to be at the very top of their game if Ireland want to leave the French Capital with a win. Across their respective times in the green jersey, they have both been real driving forces within Farrell’s pack, setting the tone for the rest of the unit with some huge efforts on both sides of the ball. They will also bring serious leadership and experience to what is a pretty fresh-looking forward group this weekend.
Main head-to-head
One of the juicier head-to-heads of the weekend comes in the form of Antoine Dupont and Jamison Gibson-Park, with the duo two of the greatest scrum-halves of this generation.
While they play in very different styles, they are both right at the forefront of their sides’ attack. As with any French side, Dupont is the beating heart of his side’s attack, usually finding himself as their chief playmaker. His desire to get the ball out of the ruck quickly is so crucial to France’s wide, expansive attack, but he balances that with effortless control with the boot as well. Around that, he also offers a genuine threat ball-in-hand, which in turn keeps the defence fixated on him and creates pockets of space elsewhere.
Gibson-Park is also built in that French number nine mould, acting as Ireland’s conductor. His ability to toy around with the speed of ball at the ruck is so important to their overall attacking shape, with it often changing depending on the pictures the scrum-half sees. He also guides his forward pack around expertly and then pulls the trigger when the chance presents itself.
This is going to be some battle between the pair.
Prediction
As mentioned previously, there is a lot on the line for the two sides in this opener, but you feel the Paris factor will see Les Bleus kick off with a bang.
With the crowd behind them, Les Bleus are an entirely different prospect. They feed off the atmosphere, unlike any other team in World Rugby, allowing it to fuel genuine confidence and almost swagger. In turn, that will unlock the full potential of the likes of Jalibert, Bielle-Biarrey and Theo Attissogbe ball-in-hand, while adding extra fire to their efforts up front and in the scrum, especially.
They will also be looking to appease their home support early doors after their own underwhelming November series, and what better way to do that than with a statement victory over a Six Nations title rival.
The effect the crowd can have in that cauldron cannot be overstated, and Les Bleus should tap into it. France by 15.
Previous results
2025: France won 27-25 in Dublin
2024: Ireland won 38-17 in Marseille
2023: Ireland won 32-19 in Dublin
2022: France won 30-24 in Paris
2021: France won 15-13 in Dublin
2020: France won 35-27 in Paris
2019: Ireland won 26-14 in Dublin
2018: Ireland won 15-13 in Paris
2017: Ireland won 19-9 in Dublin
2016: France won 10-9 in Paris
The teams
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Theo Attissogbe, 13 Nicolas Depoortere, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Anthony Jelonch, 7 Oscar Jegou, 6 François Cros, 5 Mickael Guillard, 4 Charles Ollivon, 3 Dorian Aldegheri, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Regis Montagne, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Emmanuel Meafou, 21 Lenni Nouchi, 22 Baptiste Serin, 23 Kalvin Gourgues
Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Cian Prendergast, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Jeremy Loughman
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Nick Timoney, 22 Craig Casey, 23 Jack Crowley
Date: Thursday, February 5
Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Kick-off: 21:10 local time (20:10 GMT)
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (RA), Jordan Way (RA)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
FPRO: Richard Kelly (NZR)
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