Six Nations prediction: Gregor Townsend’s job risks becoming ‘untenable’ as Scotland set for another failure
Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend, fly-half Finn Russell and rising star Freddy Douglas.
Next up in our set of previews ahead of the 2026 Six Nations we examine the prospects of last year’s fourth-placed finishers, Gregor Townsend’s Scotland.
After years of promise but very little success, expectation appears to have been tempered heading into the 2026 Championship. With the hype not matching the results, the optimism which filled their supporters appears to have dissipated somewhat.
While the talent is still there in most positions, that has not been matched by the performances, and you rather feel that this is the last chance saloon for head coach Townsend to convince the fans that he can bring them more silverware than just the Calcutta Cup.
Scottish fans, perhaps used to the horror years in the 2000s, have been remarkably patient with the current squad, but that is now wearing thin, as shown by their reaction to the defeat to Argentina in the November Tests.
From 21-0 in front with 25 minutes remaining, they conceded five tries to Los Pumas in the latter stages to succumb to a shocking loss, with boos greeting the final whistle. A poor start here, which culminates in another underwhelming tournament, will only result in more unrest.
Three wins will be the minimum requirement but even that might not be enough to satisfy their loyal faithful, who want to see them become genuine contenders in the Six Nations. It is time for the excuses to end and for Scotland to finally deliver.
Last year
It was more or less the same as it has been throughout Townsend’s tenure. That is not to say it was poor but, considering the talent Scotland have at their disposal and the experience they have gleaned at the top level, it was another underwhelming 12 months.
And this time they didn’t even have the Calcutta Cup to savour. Their victories over England – four in a row between 2021 and 2024 – have to some extent saved their year. Those performances have also tended to be their best, and at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham in 2025 they once again showed up against the Auld Enemy, but unfortunately for them, Finn Russell left his kicking boots at home.
Three missed conversions, including a final-minute effort which drifted wide, resulted in a narrow 16-15 defeat to the English. It meant wins – and relatively unconvincing ones at that – over Italy and Wales was all they had to show for their efforts in the Six Nations, putting them under pressure ahead of the end-of-year series.
Before that was the British and Irish Lions series in Australia, which saw more Scottish representation than usual – a nod to the individual talent they now possess – while Townsend’s second-string went on their tour to the southern hemisphere, defeating the Maori All Blacks and Samoa but losing to Fiji.
Scotland therefore needed some big results and performances to rescue their 2025, but they were not forthcoming. Defeats to the All Blacks and Argentina were perhaps unsurprising but the manner of them irked the supporters, especially the aforementioned implosion against Los Pumas. It has put Townsend and the team under significant pressure going into the 2026 Six Nations.
This year
If this was a Scotland side you thought would be genuine title challengers, the fixtures actually fall rather nicely. Two of their first three games are the easiest in Italy and Wales – which would ordinarily give them a couple of bonus-point triumphs – and sandwiched in between them is a clash against England, who they have dominated under Townsend.
Three victories would see Scottish fans dreaming of glory once again ahead of their home encounter against France at Murrayfield – the only place they can realistically overcome the fantastic French. They then finish the tournament by heading to Dublin to face Ireland, but they are a side that have beaten Scotland on 11 successive occasions.
The optimistic observers would predict wins over Italy, England and Wales ahead of the fallow week, and it is not out of the equation, but equally, severe doubts remain about this side under Townsend and it is conceivable that they lose two out of three, effectively ending their chances going into the final couple of rounds.
Key players
It is not a Scotland preview without discussing Finn Russell, who, as ever, will be their linchpin and ultimately decide the success and failure of the team. The issue for the Scots is that he hasn’t actually been in particularly good form for Bath since throwing an intercept against Argentina, which completely swung the momentum of that game and, seemingly, his performances.
Russell should combine with Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones in the midfield, a partnership which has proven to be among the best around for both club and country. Nicknamed ‘Huwipulotu’, they give them a real cutting edge in attack, as well as physicality in defence, but they also need the pack to fire to give them front-foot ball.
There are certainly plenty of good players up front, particularly in the back-row, but the key man is no doubt Zander Fagerson, who anchors the scrum from tighthead. They lack depth and talent at prop, but Fagerson is genuinely a top-class player and much will rest on whether he can give them a platform.
When he and Scott Cummings play, the set-piece tends to be pretty efficient. They are unlikely to dominate too much, especially against the bigger and more athletic sides such as England, Ireland and France, but it does at least give them a chance. Cummings has turned into a top-class lock and was unfortunate not to get an opportunity in the Tests during the British and Irish Lions tour last year, but Scotland certainly value what he provides.
Scotland’s 2026 Six Nations: Squad, fixtures, referees, TV channels, kick-off times and more
Players to watch
It is a shame Edinburgh’s hugely talented teen Ollie Blyth-Lafferty hasn’t been called into the squad as he is very much the future of that Scotland front-row, but another age-grade sensation, flanker Freddy Douglas, has been given a deserved opportunity in the squad. It is not guaranteed that he will feature but, given his excellence at club level, we can’t see how Townsend doesn’t pick him in the 23.
In truth, we haven’t seen a better player over the ball since David Pocock emerged on the scene and Douglas’ pilfering ability should become a feature of the next decade at Test level. That is not the only string to his bow either, with the flanker a good carrier with soft hands, and opposition teams should be wary of what he can do.
It would have been fun watching Douglas and Liam McConnell together in the back-row, but unfortunately the latter has picked up an injury. McConnell may not have been involved anyway, but his absence makes it more likely for Gregor Brown to start. Although he has been behind Matt Fagerson in the pecking order for Glasgow Warriors recently, Brown has been in fine form all season and offers Scotland real physicality and another lineout option in the back-row.
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Elsewhere, there may not be too many surprises, but it will be interesting to see how Townsend selects his backline, especially in the back three. Blair Kinghorn has been the usual full-back but, with Duhan van der Merwe not in the best of form and the aerial game now absolutely crucial, Kinghorn could shift to wing to allow Tom Jordan to come in at 15. That gives them better skills out wide but also more creativity with Jordan adept at fly-half and inside centre.
Prospects
Wins in their opening two matches and Scotland could conceivably have a good Six Nations but there is not quite as much positivity emanating from the national team going into this tournament. While Glasgow Warriors are going well and that core is combined with talent based outside of Scotland in Ben White, Russell and Kinghorn, they have not performed consistently enough in previous years to be in contention for the title.
With Townsend under pressure and the supporters now demanding, rather hoping, for success, a bad Six Nations could well see the end of the head coach. The Scottish Rugby Union have backed him to the hilt, but his position may well be untenable if they once again fall short of expectations, which we predict. Fifth.
Fixtures
Saturday, February 7 v Italy (Stadio Olimpico, Rome)
Saturday, February 14 v England (Murrayfield, Edinburgh)
Saturday, February 21 v Wales (Principality Stadium, Cardiff)
Saturday, March 7 v France (Murrayfield, Edinburgh)
Saturday, March 14 v Ireland (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)
READ MORE: 2026 Six Nations: Comprehensive TV broadcast guide, how to watch the action anywhere in the world