World Rugby rankings: England could plummet as top 10 shake-up on the cards in round one of the Six Nations
World Rugby rankings and an image of England captain Maro Itoje.
The opening round of the 2026 Six Nations could shake up the makeup of the top 10 of the World Rugby rankings.
South Africa and New Zealand cannot be overtaken at the summit of the standings, regardless of the results from round one, with England, Ireland and France unable to secure enough ranking points to surpass the top-ranked nations.
In fact, England is the only nation that cannot improve on their current third-place ranking, but Steve Borthwick’s men could fall as low as fifth if results don’t go their way. We run through the World Rugby rankings permutations for round one of the Six Nations.
How England could plummet
If Wales manages to end England’s 11-match winning streak in international rugby, they will be rewarded handsomely in the World Rugby rankings. A victory by a small margin will earn them a full two ranking points.
It would not be enough to see Steve Tandy’s men improve on their 11th-placed ranking unless they defeat England by more than 15 points, and that result is paired with a Scotland win by a similar margin.
The three points gained from that win, paired with Italy losing 1.76 rating points in defeat, would see Wales lead the Azzurri by the smallest possible margin, 0.01 rating points.
England cannot gain any rating points with an opening day victory over Wales, regardless of the margin of the win they are expected to collect over their visitors. Wales cannot fall below 11th place as Georgia won’t earn any points from beating Switzerland this weekend in the Rugby Europe Championship. However, England will lose one point, Wales will gain one, in the event of a draw.
Meanwhile, the winner at the Stade de France on Thursday evening will end the weekend as the highest-ranked team between France and Ireland, with the latter currently occupying fourth spot.
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A simple swap of positions will occur if France beats Ireland by any margin, unless it is paired with a Wales win in Twickenham. If England do beat Wales and Ireland beat France, then Andy Farrell’s men will hold onto fourth place. Anything less than a victory will see England drop at least one position, with the winner in Paris moving up.
Tenth-placed Italy host ninth-ranked Scotland in the final game of the weekend, with the winner of the fixture also ending the weekend as the highest-ranked nation. The Azzurri could drop to 11th in the standings in the event that Scotland and Wales win by more than 15 points this weekend.
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However, Gonzalo Quesada’s men could jump to ninth, swapping spots with Scotland, with a win of any kind. A narrow victory for Scotland will see them move into eighth place, with Fiji dropping to ninth and they will move up two positions into seventh, ahead of Australia, if they beat Italy by more than 15 points.
FRANCE (5) 87.24 v IRELAND (4) 87.97
France win by 15 points or less – France 88.01, Ireland 87.19
France win by more than 15 points – France 88.40, Ireland 86.81
Draw – France 87.01, Ireland 88.19
Ireland win by 15 points or less – France 86.01, Ireland 89.19
Ireland win by more than 15 points – France 85.40, Ireland 89.81
ITALY (10) 78.98 v SCOTLAND (9) 80.22
Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 79.81, Scotland 79.40
Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 80.22, Scotland 78.99
Draw – Italy 78.81, Scotland 80.40
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Italy 77.81, Scotland 81.40
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Italy 77.22, Scotland 81.99
ENGLAND (3) 89.41 v WALES (11) 74.23
England win by 15 points or less – England 89.41, Wales 74.23 (no change)
England win by more than 15 points – England 89.41, Wales 74.23 (no change)
Draw – England 88.41, Wales 75.23
Wales win by 15 points or less – England 87.41, Wales 76.23
Wales win by more than 15 points – England 86.41, Wales 77.23
Latest World Rugby Rankings
1 South Africa 93.94
2 New Zealand 90.33
3 England 89.41
4 Ireland 87.97
5 France 87.24
6 Argentina 84.97
7 Australia 81.53
8 Fiji 81.14
9 Scotland 80.22
10 Italy 78.98
11 Wales 74.23
12 Japan 74.09
13 Georgia 73.18
14 Uruguay 69.19
15 Spain 69.01
16 USA 68.26
17 Chile 66.72
18 Tonga 66.66
19 Samoa 66.43
20 Portugal 64.98
