Springboks team v All Blacks? Rassie Erasmus’ five biggest selection headaches for Eden Park showdown
Rassie Erasmus has several tough selection calls to make ahead of the Springboks clash against the All Blacks at Eden Park.
South Africa arrive in Auckland looking to become the first team since France in 1994 to beat New Zealand at their fortress, with the hosts boasting a 50-Test unbeaten run at the venue.
The Boks head into the game off the back of a victory over the Wallabies in Cape Town after falling to the same opposition at Ellis Park a week prior.
Erasmus made 10 changes to his starting XV for the second match, and with the head coach routinely opting for wholesale changes, it’s difficult to predict who he will select for the Eden Park showdown.
Springboks assistant coach Tony Brown stated that this is perhaps the biggest game for the team since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, so one can assume that the matchday 23 that features against the All Blacks in round three of the Rugby Championship will essentially be what Erasmus deems to be his best squad.
However, there are still some crucial selection calls he will have to make. We take a look at the five biggest headaches the coaching staff will be mulling over for the Boks’ first visit to Eden Park since 2013.
The starting tighthead prop
We start off with a healthy headache in the front-row, with Erasmus likely to lean on the expertise of scrum coach Daan Human to steer the selection debate.
Three world-class tighthead prop options have travelled to New Zealand in the form of Wilco Louw, Thomas du Toit and Vincent Koch, with the trio filling the two roles.
Previously, the number three jersey for such a fixture would be a straightforward selection with Frans Malherbe being the anchor of the Green and Gold scrum. However, the double World Cup-winner won’t feature for South Africa this year, meaning that Erasmus has a tricky call to make.
Koch has all the experience one could wish for, but he has usually been used off the bench for the Springboks. Still, even his role in the famed ‘Bomb Squad’ is no longer guaranteed.
This is due to the form of the two other tightheads, with Louw emerging as one of the most dominant scrummagers in world rugby, while Du Toit continues to prove his worth on both sides of the scrum, but has been particularly spectacular since joining Bath.
Du Toit offers more mobility around the park, particularly in the carries, and while he is no slouch in the scrums, Louw is more aggressive. The former is arguably more suited for the bench role in the Boks’ system, but against the Wallabies in Cape Town, the latter made a telling impact off the bench, and that could be used as a benchmark for the Auckland showdown.
Erasmus can’t really go wrong here, but it is still a tough balancing act.
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Who starts at number eight?
Again, this would be a straightforward selection if Jasper Wiese were not suspended. His younger brother Cobus, would have been a solid call too, but he has been put on the standby list for the tour.
This leaves Erasmus choosing between Jean-Luc du Preez, Siya Kolisi and Kwagga Smith. Sure, Pieter-Steph du Toit could potentially do a job at the back of the scrum, but that is incredibly unlikely.
The remaining options aren’t exactly ideal either. Du Preez hasn’t played since the end of June after missing the clash in Cape Town against the Wallabies through illness. He was set to pack down in the number eight jersey before his late withdrawal.
Meanwhile, Kolisi shone in the role at Ellis Park but isn’t exactly a like-for-like replacement for Wiese, admitting himself that he isn’t quite in the mould of a traditional Springbok number eight. What plays in favour is his experience at international level, and if fit, he is a shoo-in selection.
Lastly, Smith did impress in Cape Town after filling in for Du Preez, but his best performances for the Springboks have mostly come from the replacements. He is undoubtedly one of the team’s most consistent performers, but including him in the starting line-up does take away from the bench’s impact somewhat.
Fly-half conundrum
Spoilt for choice. The selection at fly-half could well show the Springboks’ hand in how they will approach the fixture. Manie Libbok and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu will offer flair and attacking brilliance, and with the new approach under attack coach Brown, are perhaps better suited to the position than veteran pivot Handre Pollard.
South Africa’s best quarter of rugby this year came with Grant Williams and Libbok in the starting half-backs as they raced into a 22-point lead over Australia in Johannesburg. However, the team imploded thereafter, which creates doubt over whether Libbok is the right man to run the show as the Boks chase history.
Last year, Feinberg-Mngomezulu featured in both wins over the All Blacks, starting the first and coming off the bench in the second. However, leading the attack in New Zealand, at Eden Park, with just 11 caps under his belt, is a major ask. He certainly has the goods to get the job done, but perhaps this is too bold a selection even for Erasmus.
If the Bok coach were to go with perceived riskier options of Libbok or Feinberg-Mngomezulu, he could do so and add the insurance policy of Pollard on the bench but history has shown, when the Boks go full-tilt in the crunch matches, it is the veteran playmaker they turn to. And who can blame for doing so?
Pollard is a proven match-winner and usually produces his best on the biggest stage. In Cape Town, he was far from perfect but the manner in which he controlled the game was a sight to behold. The Boks didn’t play particularly well in that match but it mattered little as Pollard ensured they played the right percentages and in the right areas of the pitch. When he starts, the Boks might not always win pretty, but they do tend to win quite a lot more frequently, particularly the tight encounters.
South Africa’s second-highest points scorer seems like the logical call, but don’t be shocked if Erasmus throws Libbok or Feinberg-Mngomezulu into the cauldron.
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Experience, youth, or wild card?
Again, when the Boks have faced their toughest opposition, the selections on the wings have been rather easy: Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse. However, the latter has not made the trip out to Aotearoa due to injury, leaving a void to be filled.
Edwill van der Merwe has enjoyed a marvellous start to his international career, but he too is sidelined, meaning that Kolbe is set to be accompanied by one of Canan Moodie, Makazole Mapimpi, Ethan Hooker or even Aphelele Fassi. The wing roles may well be dictated by the selection at fly-half and full-back, too.
Moodie was the man backed for the round two clash against the Wallabies and could well retain the position for Eden Park. The 22-year-old has started against the All Blacks previously, running out at centre in London as South Africa surged to a record 35-7 victory in 2023 and last year, he featured on the wing in the 18-12 win.
Meanwhile, Mapimpi remains a solid performer for club and country despite initially losing his place in the Springboks squad ahead of the Rugby Championship. The 35-year-old still knows the systems well and is a real threat under the high ball, which could be a real weapon against the All Blacks.
On the more bullish front, Erasmus could turn to rookie back Hooker, who has just a handful of minutes under his belt at the highest level. The Sharks back offers an option in the centres as well, and that is perhaps where his future lies, but he was sensational for the Durbanites on the wing last season. A serious athlete, he would offer pace, power and height to the wing position, but handing the 22-year-old a first Test start at Eden Park would be a gamble.
Another wild card selection could see full-back Fassi deputise on the wing. He has finished games in that position this year for South Africa, but hasn’t started a Test match in the role since 2021. Selecting him on the wing could open a place for Damian Willemse or Willie Le Roux at full-back. A serious operator under the high ball, his selection on the wing could be an inspired one against the All Blacks, who have struggled in that department.
Bench make-up
Earlier this week, Springboks great Schalk Burger bemoaned the lack of real impact from South Africa’s bench with the famed Bomb Squad failing to really fire the side over the line.
He believes that a lot of this is due to the plethora of injuries that the team has suffered in the loose forwards and front-row, which has put a bigger emphasis on the starters to perform.
That will certainly play into Erasmus and his coaching team’s thinking when they look to nail down their selections and the split.
Last year, the Boks deployed a 6-2 and 5-3 split respectively in the wins over Scott Robertson’s men, but the year prior, they rolled the dice on their pack dominating name a 7-1 split on the latter two meetings of 2023, including the World Cup final.
Against Australia, Erasmus opted for a 5-3 split on both occasions, with Andre Esterhuizen playing a hybrid role covering the backs and the pack. The Esterhuizen ploy hasn’t quite paid dividends just yet for South Africa, but one can see the Boks giving it another crack.
That would allow Erasmus to select two locks on the bench as well as a scrum-half and a utility back, whether that’d be Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Le Roux or even Pollard.
