Scotland v All Blacks prediction: New Zealand to avoid ‘unwanted history’ and stretch Murrayfield streak to 20 games
Finn Russell and Beauden Barrett face off in the Scotland v All Blacks clash.
Scotland have never beaten the All Blacks but New Zealand have been rather good at creating unwanted history over the past few years.
Starting with Steve Hansen’s reign and continuing into Ian Foster’s and Scott Robertson’s, they are certainly not as unbeatable as they once appeared. Scotland will hope to be the latest side to end their dreadful record against New Zealand, but that may well be a stretch.
There is a statistic which shows the longest streak without losing at one venue in international rugby. The top five is of course filled with countries who have dominated on their own ground, but there is one outlier which rather stands out.
It has the All Blacks playing 19 games successive games at Murrayfield without tasting defeat since 1935, and they will expect to make it 20 on Saturday. That rather displays the dominance they have enjoyed over the Scots and the challenge that is facing Gregor Townsend’s men.
There is genuine hope, however, that they can finally rid themselves of that curse. Standing in their favour is the fact that this is one of the best squads they have produced, while the opposition certainly aren’t at the level they were once were.
Robertson’s All Blacks remain a fine side, though, as was evident in their ultimately comfortable success against Ireland in Chicago. Only the Springboks sit above them in the World Rugby standings and it is hard to argue with those rankings, but there is still an element of fallibility about New Zealand.
Scotland will look to exploit that and in Finn Russell they have the ideal player, but he needs to get front foot ball first and that is where their problems may lie.
Where the game will be won
Although this All Blacks outfit are hardly the most free-flowing team at the moment, their front-row is in good working order, while the bench is packed with power, and that is where the Scots have traditionally struggled over recent years. Without Zander Fagerson, you can’t see anything other than Townsend’s team going into reverse at the scrum and maul. The lineout might be a different matter, particularly with the visitors having a new combination at four, five and six, but it is difficult to see Scotland matching the New Zealand pack.
If the front five can at least get stability then they are always good over the ball at the breakdown and that will duly provide opportunities for Russell, both off turnovers and in phase play. Scotland have five British and Irish Lions tourists in the backline, with the other two, Rory Hutchinson and Glasgow Warriors captain Kyle Steyn, outstanding players and also in good form. Such is the depth, they can afford to drop Duhan van der Merwe, but if they can’t halt the New Zealanders at close quarters then they will have no chance.
There were signs at the end of the Ireland clash that it was starting to click for Robertson’s men, but they will want to build on the attacking creativity they showed in the final quarter and score a few more tries at Murrayfield. They may be missing Jordie Barrett but Leicester Fainga’anuku did a fine job as a replacement and it is that ball carrying prowess the All Blacks have throughout the side which can really hurt the Scots.
Last time they met
What they said
Scotland head coach Townsend was full of praise for starting wing Steyn and insists his recall to the team at the expense of Van der Merwe is fully deserved.
“It’s really rewarding Kyle’s form this season, and probably since he came back from injury after the Six Nations,” he told BBC Sport.
“Not all of our players have been able to play a number of games leading into this tournament, but Kyle’s been consistently strong in all aspects of his game so he’s earned this opportunity.”
Meanwhile, All Blacks head coach Robertson is expecting a tough opponent on a special day in this Scottish capital, touching on the recent scorelines between the sides.
“We are honoured to be part of the 100th anniversary of rugby at Murrayfield, it will be a special occasion,” he said.
“We have a proud history with Scotland and recent games between us have been close.
“We have named the best team to reflect the challenge we know Scotland will present.”
Players to watch
There is one absolute certainly; if Scotland are to win Finn Russell has to play well. Even if he does, they might not, but with the fly-half on top form, the hosts at least stand a chance. He is the absolute linchpin of this side and their main creator, but previously has been prone to some brain fades. However, Russell has matured over recent seasons, knowing when to not throw a speculative pass and instead kick, and that will help the home side this weekend.
His playmaking cohorts, Blair Kinghorn and Sione Tuipolutu, are also vitally important, providing the eyes and ears in the wider channels, but no doubt much of the onus falls on the forward eight to get parity. The All Blacks may well have dominated in scrum even with Fagerson available, but his absence means that D’Arcy Rae has to have the game of his life at tighthead.
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Pierre Schoeman is a proven performer on the opposite side of the scrum while Ewan Ashman is a hugely gifted young player, but we’re not sure they will have the capabilities of stopping Ethan de Groot and co. Where they could get an edge is in the lineout with Scott Cummings and Grant Gilchrist fine exponents aerially.
As a result, Josh Lord needs to replicate what he did in Chicago after coming on for captain Scott Barrett. The All Blacks suffered a couple of early blows at Soldier Field after losing two Barretts – Jordie being the other – but Lord and centre Fainga’anuku did fine jobs in their absence. Only injury has prevented the lock from getting more game time at the highest level, but he now has the opportunity to nail his spot in the squad.
Alongside Lord in the pack is flanker Wallace Sititi, who gets a start after impressing off the bench against Ireland. After winning the World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the Year in 2024, most expected Sititi to kick on in 2025, but injury has rather hampered his form and, therefore, the back-rower’s development. He looked back to his best in Chicago, however, and it will be intriguing to see if he can build on that at Murrayfield.
Finally, in the backline, Cam Roigard continues upward trajectory and must surely be considered one of the best scrum-halves in the world, but the biggest pressure is probably on the midfield duo of Quinn Tupaea and Leicester Fainga’anuku. They did excellently in difficult circumstances against Ireland, but there is now an expectation for them to step it up in Edinburgh.
Prediction
New Zealand simply have too much power up front and class in the backline and while Scotland will fire shots, ultimately it will be Robertson’s men who come out on top, thus extending that incredible record at Murrayfield. All Blacks by 20 points.
Previous results
2022: New Zealand won 31-23 in Edinburgh
2017: New Zealand won 22-17 in Edinburgh
2014: New Zealand won 24-16 in Edinburgh
2012: New Zealand won 51-22 in Edinburgh
2010: New Zealand won 49-3 in Edinburgh
2008: New Zealand won 32-6 in Edinburgh
2007: New Zealand won 40-0 in Edinburgh
2005: New Zealand won 29-10 in Edinburgh
2001: New Zealand won 37-6 in Edinburgh
2000: New Zealand won 48-14 in Auckland
The teams
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Kyle Steyn, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Matt Fagerson, 6 Gregor Brown, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 D’Arcy Rae, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Marshall Sykes, 20 Rory Darge, 21 Josh Bayliss, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Tom Jordan
All Blacks: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea (c), 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Billy Proctor, 23 Damian McKenzie
Date: Saturday, November 8
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 15:10 local (04:10 NZT)
Referee: Nic Berry (RA)
Assistant referees: Pierre Brousset (FFR) and Morné Ferreira (SARU)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
FRPO: Marius Jonker (SARU)
READ MORE: Autumn Nations Series: Team news, kick-off times, venues and how to watch week two