France v Springboks prediction: Rassie Erasmus’ men to ‘rub salt in French wounds’ with another clutch victory
One of the most highly anticipated encounters of the last two years is finally here as France host the world champion Springboks at the Stade de France.
Just over two years ago, South Africa crushed France’s dream of hoisting the William Webb Ellis Cup on home soil, clinching a clutch 29-28 victory.
This sets up a mouth-watering epic at the same rugby cathedral as France are out for revenge, while the Springboks will be eager to prove that 2023 was no fluke and continue their domination at the Stade de France, a ground where they boast a 10/13 winning record.
Further spice is sprinkled into the fixture, not that it needed it, as it sees the best of the north host the best of the south as the Six Nations and Rugby Championship holders collide.
A blockbuster of epic proportions would be underselling this. If it’s anything close to what we saw 25 months ago, it will be an all-time classic.
Where the game will be won
Much has changed since these two sides faced off, with France head coach Fabien Galthie issuing countless new caps, his counterpart Rassie Erasmus too. In fact, just nine of the 23 feature again for France, while that number is 11 for the men in Green and Gold.
One of the big absentees for Les Bleus is captain Antoine Dupont, one of the best players in the world, while the same is true for the Springboks with powerhouse prop Ox Nche also sidelined.
The pair are both crucial to their respective teams’ causes, with Dupont central to France’s kicking and attacking game while Nche is the wrecking ball that has demolished almost every international forward pack that has crossed his path. However, both teams have able, though admittedly less glamorous, replacements that can get the job done.
Just a point separated the two teams last time they met, and we can expect much the same this time around, with this match bound to be decided by the smallest of margins.
South Africa found that margin in the air, at the breakdown, and in the scrum last time around and even in doing so, still only won by a single point.
Why the Springboks are in white jerseys against France and could be for the rest of 2025
The stats heading into the encounter suggest that we are set for another nail-biter as France have won the most turnovers per game of any Tier 1 side in 2025 (6.9), while South Africa have conceded the most turnovers per game (17.3) and rank second from bottom for average turnovers won (4.4)
As for the lineout, Les Bleus boast the highest success rate (95%) this year while the Boks possess the lowest (85%). However, Erasmus’ men have stolen an average of two opposition throws per game, the joint-most of any nation with Japan.
Quite simply, there isn’t one area of the game where it will be won or lost; rather, like South Africa did in 2023, it will be the slightest of edges in multiple areas paired with winning the big moments – even then, it might not be enough.
Last time they met
What they said
The 2023 quarter-final was an unavoidable topic in the build-up to the showdown, and Maxime Lucu was not afraid to air his views, stating that South Africa ‘stole’ the World Cup.
“It was a massive defeat for us (the World Cup quarter-final in 2023)”, Lucu told EPCR’s website..
“For us, the French people, it’s really stuck with us. It was our World Cup and they came and stole it off us. It was such a great game”.
Looking ahead to this weekend, the number nine added: “The Springboks are much more than just brutes.
“It’s true they’re unbelievably strong, but they’ve also got a lot of quick and nimble youngsters coming through.
“There’s talent everywhere; they’re a complete side.”
Romain Ntamack: World Cup ‘trauma’ affected more than just France’s 23
Fly-half Romain Ntamack shared similar sentiments, even though he was not part of the matchday 23 last time around due to injury.
“It’s a big challenge,” the son of France legend Emile Ntamack said in an interview with RugbyRama ahead of the grudge match at the Stade de France.
“I wasn’t part of that World Cup quarter-final squad, but the trauma affected more than just the 23 players on the team sheet.
“Since then, all that has passed, and now we’re focused on Saturday night’s match.”
On his opposing number 10, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, he added: “He’s an additional weapon and also brings out the best in exceptional players like Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse. We’ll have to keep him and the others contained… Physically, it will be a very tough challenge.”
As for France head coach Galthie, he described the current Bok side as ‘maybe the best team ever’, a compliment Erasmus accepted but not without stating that it might be a psychological ploy to fire up the French players.
“Well, if it’s honest, then it’s a nice thing to say,” the Springboks boss quipped.
“If he wants to take the pressure off them and put it on, I also understand that, all of those things count in a game, but we know if we take it our guys man-for-man with theirs and everybody plays to the best of their ability, this game is in the balance on both sides.”
Starting Bok scrum-half Cobus Reinach is also expecting a fired-up, emotional French team on Saturday.
“They are going to be charged. They haven’t forgotten about the 2023 World Cup, and we haven’t forgotten about it either,” he said.
“It’s a rugby game which we all look back on. We all learn from it and try to use it to prepare for the following game. So, yes, they’re going to be charged up, but their emotion and what they have in their camp, like Rassie said, cannot affect us; it cannot affect the way we prepare for the game and how we put together our plan on the field.
“We know they are going to come at us physically, and we are ready for it.
“It’s not rocket science what is going to happen out there; it’s going to be a huge battle.”
Players to watch
The biggest selection call that Galthie made was in the number eight jersey with Mickael Guillard replacing Six Nations-winning captain Gregory Alldritt. The latter has been a staple in the Les Bleus set-up since 2020, even before then, but has been left out of the first full-strength matchday 23 since the Six Nations and not through injury. Guillard has been a rising star in the French ranks since touring with the squad to Argentina last year, but really shone when he moved from his usual role in the second-row to the number eight jumper against the All Blacks this July. He features in a large, hefty back-row with fellow loose forwards Anthony Jelonch and Paul Boudehent who wouldn’t be completely out of their depth if they were to pack down in the second-row.
While the rest of the forward pack are proven quality at the international level, the same cannot really be said of starting props Baptiste Erdocio and Regis Montagne. The duo will both be earning just their third caps for their country after debuting in New Zealand, with the latter earning his first start.
Louis Bielle-Biarrey had a tough old night in the quarter-final, but since then, the diminutive speedster has gone from strength to strength in the blue jersey. This year, he equalled the record for the most tries in a single Six Nations crossing for eight tries in five appearances.
As for the Springboks, the pressure is on Boan Venter to perform in the absence of Nche. It would be unfair to expect the same level of performance considering the disparity in Test-level experience, but Venter is no slouch and will be aiming to nail his core duties, particularly in the scrums.
Pieter-Steph du Toit will also be the centre of attention, but for the French fans after the Springboks’ red card against Les Bleus in 2022, before he escaped sanction for what many deemed as the same offence a year later. While the public was enraged about that decision, Jonathan Danty too, the back-rower is still held in high regard, as showcased by him winning Midi Olympique’s fan-voted Oscar Monde, for the best player in the world.
In the backs, the rise of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has been the real talking point for the Boks over the past two years, and this is perhaps the youngster’s greatest litmus test to date. Not only does he go against the world-class Ntamack, but he does so in one of the most hostile grounds in the international game. He has been dubbed a generational talent, and producing the goods in this fixture will not only confirm that as true but put the entire rugby-playing world on notice.
Prediction
The last three Springboks victories over France have come by a margin of just three points, while Les Bleus’ 2022 win came by four. Will 2025 break the trend of winning margins of less than a try? Surely not. Man-to-man, there isn’t much splitting these two sides. Diving into the stats doesn’t make a prediction any easier, either. Frankly, it’s bound to come down to the bounce of the ball, an individual error, a referee’s call or a moment of magic, take your pick. It’s two behemoth packs, not just in size but ability, two glorious backlines, two power-packed benches and two wily head coaches.
The only factors that really separate the teams are cohesion and experience, two areas where the visitors have the edge. Erasmus insisted on a Test match before the French game, which cost him the services of Nche, but it does mean that many of the Japan-based men are more battle-hardened; how much so is the crucial part. In contrast, this is the first match that France are at full-strength since winning the Six Nations. Can they click immediately? Possibly.
It’s nip-and-tuck, a coin flip, but ultimately, South Africa looked set to rub salt into France’s wounds with another clutch single-digit victory, beating France by less than five points.
Rassie Erasmus responds to Fabien Galthie’s claim that the Springboks are the ‘best team ever’
Previous results
2023: South Africa won 28-29 in Paris
2022: France won 30-26 in Marseille
2018: South Africa won 29-26 in Paris
2017: South Africa won 18-17 in Paris
2017: South Africa won 35-12 in Johannesburg
2017: South Africa won 37-15 in Durban
2017: South Africa won 37-14 in Pretoria
2013: South Africa won 19-10 in Paris
2010: South Africa won 42-17 in Cape Town
2009: France won 20-13 in Toulouse
The teams
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Gael Fickou, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Nolann le Garrec, 8 Mickael Guillard, 7 Paul Boudehent, 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Regis Montagne, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Baptiste Erdocio
Replacements: 16 Guilaume Cramont, 17 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Nicolas Depoortere
Springboks: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Ruan Nortje, 21 Andre Esterhuizen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Date: Saturday, November 8
Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Kick-off: 20:10 local (22:10 SAST)
Referee: Angus Gardner (RA)
Assistant referees: Nika Amashukeli (GRU), Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
FPRO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
