Predicted Wales team v Springboks: Louis Rees-Zammit among key changes with Steve Tandy to make ‘crucial’ selection amid captaincy loss
Steve Tandy (left) could pick both Jac Morgan (centre) and Louis Rees-Zammit (right) to take on the Springboks
Ahead of Wales’ Test against the Springboks on Saturday, here is how we think Steve Tandy’s side will line up in Durban.
The last time the two teams met, it was an ugly, ugly day for Welsh rugby, but Tandy’s side are an entirely different prospect now not even 12 months on.
Wales are still focusing on getting improved performances rather than wins, but victories are slowly coming back into the form guide with two in their previous three Tests. Tandy’s side also ran Argentina close last time out, which again shows just how much they have come on in a short space of time.
But the lingering question for the head coach is does he stick or twist with his selection? There seems to be a real spine forming within his run-on group now, with Eddie James and Joe Hawkins positioning themselves as the starting centre pairing, Blair Murray returning to full-back and Aaron Wainwright and Jac Morgan consistently starting together in the back-row, but Tandy has still done a bit of tinkering around that cohort.
Sam Costelow and Dan Edwards are back fighting for the 10 shirt, Ellis Mee, Josh Adams and Louis Rees-Zammit are all scrapping over two starting jerseys, Max Llewellyn is back up and running and James Botham, Alex Mann and even Kane James are all in a position to stake a claim for the six shirt.
This selection feels like a big one for Tandy. It feels like it could define the next mini-cycle, November’s Nations Championship Tests the Six Nations and, dare we say, the World Cup.
What he does now will be crucial.
Experience counts
Tandy’s likeliest selection headaches come in the backline, with the likes of Rees-Zammit, Llewellyn, Costelow, Edwards, Kieran Hardy, Williams and Murray all vying for spots.
James and Hawkins seem almost certain to remain in the centres, given that has been the go-to pairing in recent outings, but it’s which players does Tandy pick around them that is the million-dollar question.
To take on the Springboks, even with them rotating a lot and naming a starting team with four debutants, you need Test experience, and it feels like if there is a 50/50 call to be made, that will swing it.
In that frame, Rees-Zammit should come back into the run-on group to link up with Murray and Adams in the back-three, with Edwards then taking over at fly-half. Williams should remain at scrum-half.
While experience might be the defining factor in their selections, it is a backline designed to play expansive rugby and crucially the sort of style that Matt Sherratt likes.
Williams is potentially among the top scrum-halves in the world when on top form, and acts as Wales’ chief playmaker within this new system. His connection with Edwards is also getting better with each Test, with the duo starting to play off each other nicely. The Ospreys man also likes to take the line on and engage defenders, which then brings in the likes of James or even Hawkins outside him.
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Rees-Zammit and Murray also both like to get their hands on the ball in broken field where they can use their pace, and their ability to shift between wing and full-back should also create a really interesting fluid unit. Adams also gives them real stability out wide.
The bench is also likely to be a point of discussion. Tandy does prefer a 5:3 split rather than a 6:2, but again it’s just who he picks. Hardy and Llewellyn both got the nod last time out and could again feature, but the final spot could be taken by either Costelow or Mee.
Hawkins’ ability to cover fly-half does mean they can run with two outside backs on his bench, but Costelow is a player the head coach wants to get a proper look at at this level, which could see him edge out the Scarlets winger.
Similar pack
While the backline could see a few changes, the pack will likely be pretty similar to what it was against Argentina. Captain Dewi Lake is expected to miss out due to a groin injury, which could see Ryan Elias promoted to the run-on group and Elliot Dee added to the bench, but that could easily be the only change to the starting unit.
Wainwright, Morgan and Botham seems to be the probable back-row combination, as it gives Wales two genuine ball-carriers in the tight alongside Morgan’s breakdown threat. The Gloucester-bound flanker is also the front-runner to captain the side in Lake’s absence.
Around them, Adam Beard, Ben Carter, Dillon Lewis and Rhys Carre should also continue in the starting group, with Nicky Smith, Ben Warren and Teddy Williams featuring on the replacements.
Tandy’s major headache within his replacement forwards is likely the number 20 shirt, with Mann, James, Taine Plumtree and Tommy Reffell all viable options to feature. It does seem Mann is the front-runner to get the nod, though, with the Cardiff back-rower again likely to add a bit more of a carrying threat in the tight.
Wales predicted team v Springboks in full
Starting XV: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Ben Warren, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Alex Mann, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Max Llewellyn
