Argentina v Springboks prediction: Rassie Erasmus’ men to cruise to victory and hoist the Rugby Championship title in London
Argentina captain Julian Montoya and Springboks skipper Siya Kolisi.
It will all come down to the final game of the Rugby Championship to decide the 2025 champions with Los Pumas and the Springboks battling it out at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham.
South Africa became the first team in the competition this year to break the win-lose or lose-win trend by thrashing Argentina 67-30 in Durban last weekend, which means that they lead the standings with one round to go.
The Springboks have a one-point buffer on the league table over New Zealand heading into the game in Twickenham and will be armed with the knowledge of what is required to defend the title prior to the first whistle against Argentina.
It’s all to play for in perhaps the most competitive Rugby Championship ever, even though Los Pumas are out of the running, as the carrot of moving up the World Rugby rankings ahead of the 2027 draw and the chance to knock over the world champions, adding to their victories over the British and Irish Lions, Australia and New Zealand, remains.
Where the game will be won
A masterclass performance from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu turned a closely fought Test match into a one-sided thrashing in Durban last weekend. Another outrageous individual performance could well be the difference between the two nations again, but it would be remiss to ignore the armchair ride that Feinberg-Mngomezulu received from his pack and the manner in which the Springboks dismantled the best lineout team, until that point, in the competition.
The Pumas lineout operated at an 88.4% success rate before the fixture in Durban, where they won just 67% of their own, but the possession that they did win was far from clean or conducive to their attack. The scrum was a similar story where the men in Green and Gold were able to turn the screws and win penalties.
South Africa’s ability to bust through tackles, win the gain-line and strike when their opportunities arose was all set from the platform the forwards had laid in the scrums and lineouts, and the Pumas defence just couldn’t cope, particularly when injuries took their toll.
In response to the defeat, head coach Felipe Contepomi has shaken up his starting second-row with lineout expert Guido Petti elevated to the run-on team to help solve the team’s woes in that facet of the game.
Argentina have proven that they have the attacking prowess and the grunt up front to mix it with the best of the best in the world, but they simply cannot afford to replicate their efforts at the set-piece and on the gain-line as they did last week again in London; if they do, a similar scoreline is on the cards.
Last time they met
What they said
Returning Springboks hooker Bongi Mbonambi is bracing for another tough outing against Argentina despite the comprehensive nature of the result last week.
“If you watch last week’s game, you’ll see that it was not as easy as the score may suggest,” he said.
“It definitely wasn’t a walk in the park in Durban, and over and above that, a lot can happen in a week in rugby, so we need to go out there and give our best on the field to get the result we want.”
Starting tighthead prop Thomas du Toit echoed the thoughts of his fellow front rower, stating that this game is an entirely new challenge for the Boks.
“We approach each match as a new block, so this week we trained as though we would for any other Test week,” said Du Toit.
“It was all about going back to basics for us and sticking to our processes because last week’s result is history. This is a new game and a fresh challenge, so what happened in Durban has no significance.”
Centre Damian de Allende added: “Argentina will come out fighting. They may not be able to win the competition anymore, but they defeated New Zealand, Australia, and the British & Irish Lions this year already, so we need to stay focused on the task at hand to get the desired result.”
Players to watch
Injuries have forced Contepomi’s hand as a new half-back combination will debut against the Boks as Simón Benítez Cruz and Geronimo Prisciantelli take over the scrum-half and fly-half roles, respectively. It will be Benítez Cruz’s second start for Argentina and Prisciantelli’s first after the latter debuted off the bench in Durban. The absence of Gonzalo Garcia and Tomas Albornoz are massive blows for the men in blue and white hoops, but it also creates an opportunity for Conetpomi to test his depth. The absent duo have enjoyed meteoric rises in the Pumas jersey under the legendary former fly-half and there is no reason why this week’s starting pair can’t do the same, particularly with the place-kicking pressure off the shoulders of Prisciantelli, with Santiago Carreras retained in the starting XV but shifting to full-back.
It’s rare for Julian Montoya to have a poor game and even rarer for the world-class Puma to produce two. The proud Argentine will be hellbent on producing a better shift at the set-piece and even more driven to make his mark on the pitch, particularly in the match where he breaks the record for the most caps as captain of his country, edging past the legendary Agustin Creevy.
He will need the assistance of the brilliant Guido Petti. The experienced second-rower has taken a bit of a backseat in the Test set-up as Contepomi builds the experience of Pedro Rubiolo and Franco Molina. However, Petti is proven pedigree at this level and is a welcome returnee in the pack.
The only ‘change’ to the Springboks starting XV is the return of Ox Nche, who withdrew from last weekend’s encounter. The powerhouse Springbok is comfortably one of the best loosehead props in the game and poses a massive threat to Argentina’s scrum. Joel Scalvi is no slouch in the front-row, but he was put under the pump in Durban by Boan Venter, and frankly, Nche is the superior scrummager of the two Bok props.
All eyes will be on Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu this weekend to see if the Springboks playmaker can back up his phenomenal shift in Durban. He returns to the stadium where he made his Test debut and will be eager to put in another mighty performance. His partnership with Damian Willemse is becoming increasingly more important for the Boks’ attack and tactical kicking, and it will be crucial for the side’s success again.
Main head-to-head
While the battle up front will be crucial in either team’s success again this week, much will rely on the respective side’s glue men, Santiago Chocobares and Damian de Allende.
Despite his compact size, Chocobares packs a lethal punch with ball in hand and is equally adept defensively. This week, he is without his regular centre partner, Lucio Cinti, with Justo Piccardo taking over the number 13 jumper. Argentina’s defence was ripped apart in Durban last week, and the new midfield pairing will be pivotal in producing a more astute shift in London.
Threatening that is the presence of De Allende in the Green and Gold number 12 jumper. The veteran centre continues to put in outstanding performances regardless of who he is partnered with, and despite assumptions, he has thrived in Tony Brown’s attacking structures.
The forwards will lay the foundations for either side, but the two inside centres will be key to determining how well their team capitalise on their opportunities, particularly with such inexperienced fly-halves and outside centres they have been paired with.
Prediction
The form guide so far in the Rugby Championship suggests that the Springboks are due a defeat and Argentina a victory. South Africa did break the win-lose trend, but all of the series so far have been one apiece. However, with the title on the line and considering all the setbacks that Los Pumas have been dealt, another win for the Boks is on the cards. South Africa have backed consistency in selection again, which paid dividends in KZN and should do so in London too. It won’t be an easy task, but Rassie Erasmus’ charges have risen to the occasion when it has mattered most. It might not be a cricket score or a thrashing like they dealt out last week, but the Springboks should cruise to a comfortable 10-point victory and create another bit of history as they hoist the Rugby Championship title for a second year, defending the crown for the first time.
It’s worth noting just how successful South Africa have been at Twickenham in recent encounters. They have beaten England twice in three meetings since 2021 and handed the All Blacks their heaviest defeat on foreign soil two years ago. Their four-game winning run at the home of English rugby also includes a 41-13 hammering of Wales.
Previous results
2025: South Africa won 67-30 in Durban
2024: South Africa won 48-7 in Mbombela
2024: Argentina won 28-27 in Santiago del Estero
2023: South Africa won 24-13 in Buenos Aires
2023: South Africa won 22-21 in Johannesburg
2022: South Africa won 38-21 in Durban
2022: South Africa won 36-20 in Buenos Aires
2021: South Africa won 29-10 in Gqeberha
Argentina v South Africa: How to watch, live stream, kick-off time
The teams
Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras , 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Justo Piccardo, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Juan Cruz Mallía, 10 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 9 Simón Benítez Cruz, 8 Santiago Grondona , 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Pedro Rubiolo , 4 Guido Petti, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julián Montoya (c), 1 Mayco Vivas
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Juan Martín González, 21 Joaquín Oviedo, 22 Agustin Moyano , 23 Rodrigo Isgro
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Morne van den Berg, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Jesse Kriel
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Twickenham
Kick off: 14:00 (local), 15:00 (RSA), 2:00 (NZL, Sunday), 23:00 (AEST), 10:00 (ARG)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR)
Assistant referees: Nika Amashukeli (GRU), Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
FPRO: Matteo Liperini (FIR)
