Wallabies v All Blacks prediction: Australia to bounce back from Eden Park reversal and end long losing streak against trans-Tasman rivals
Wallabies midfielder Joseph Suaalii and All Blacks counterpart Quinn Tupaea.
The All Blacks will be hoping to hammer home their dominance of the Bledisloe Cup when they renew hostilities with the Wallabies at Optus Stadium in Perth on Saturday.
Scott Robertson’s troops made sure they retained the famous cup for the 23rd successive year when they clinched a 33-24 victory over Joe Schmidt’s charges at Eden Park in Auckland last weekend.
That result will boost New Zealand‘s confidence ahead of this weekend’s encounter but they can expect a tough challenge from their hosts, who have enjoyed a resurgence in 2025 and become much more competitive than previous years.
Although the Bledisloe Cup is still in the All Blacks’ possession, this match forms part of the Rugby Championship and New Zealand and Australia will be highly motivated to secure victory as both sides as well as the defending champions South Africa can still win the competition.
Ahead of the sixth and final round of the tournament, the Springboks are setting the pace at the top of the standings with 15 points amassed while the All Blacks are one adrift and four clear of the Wallabies, with Argentina the only side out of the reckoning to lift the title on nine points.
Heading into Saturday’s showdown in Perth, the Kiwis will be brimming with confidence as they have won their last 10 Tests against the Wallabies and another victory for the men in black will be a momentous one as it will mark their most successive wins over their trans-Tasman rivals in the professional era.
However, they will underestimate the Wallabies at their peril as the home side have an impressive record in Perth as they have won seven out of their last 10 Tests in the Western Australian city, including a 47-26 triumph in this fixture in 2019 which is their biggest ever winning margin over the All Blacks.
Where the game will be won
With both sides renowned for their attacking approach to the game, we expect this to be a free flowing encounter with plenty of end-to-end action. However, for that to happen, both sides will have to master the basics which means the forward battle will have a big impact in the grander scheme of things. As usual, the set-piece battle will be huge and these two sides come into this fixture as the leading teams in the execution of their scrums and lineouts.
Australia have a perfect 100% record for scrums won while New Zealand are not far behind on 93% in that department. Meanwhile, the All Blacks are setting the pace for lineouts won with 86.1% with the Wallabies hot on their heels on 85.9% in second position. Whoever dominates those categories and has the upper hand at the breakdowns should give their respective backlines good front-foot ball from which they can launch attacks that will ultimately pave the way to victory.
Last time they met
What they said
Although the All Blacks will be determined to seal their 11th successive win over the Wallabies, Schmidt is backing his troops to end their losing streak this weekend.
“If we could get a win this week, at worst, we’d finish second,” he said.
“That would be incredible compared to last season and the season before that where there was the winless season that was in the Rugby Championship. Building our way forward, I do think that it gives us a little bit more confidence.
“They will be bristling with physicality. I thought [Peter] Lakai came onto the field last weekend and was very dynamic. Obviously, Ardie (Savea) is as well.
“That back-row, very dynamic. A couple of changes in the front row as well. I think they’re through injury with Ethan de Groot getting a head knock last week.
“We know they’ve got strength and depth. That’s demonstrated in the competition we play in.
“They’ve got three of the four best teams based on the Super Rugby competition. We know that’s not something that’s going to be a distraction for us because we know how tough they’re going to be.”
Meanwhile Robertson, who has rung the changes to his matchday squad, has urged his troops to be more consistent as they are yet to win two successive Tests in the Rugby Championship.
“We have got to get more back-to-back moments where we can put pressure on teams and create,” he said.
“You get a ref’s call, don’t get a ref’s call. There’s a bounce of a ball … things can change quickly. All the stuff that we can get better in, our personal self-control and game management, that’s what we are focusing on.”
Players to watch
For the home side, this encounter will be a special occasion for their veteran front-rower James Slipper, who is making his final appearance at international level for his country. The 36-year-old has been a loyal servant of Australian rugby for the past 15 years after making his Test debut against England in 2010 and finishes his career on his own terms as the Wallabies’ most capped player with 151 appearances. A victory for the home side will be a fitting way for Slipper end his career in Wallaby gold.
Joining Slipper amongst the Wallabies forwards is another experienced campaigner in Will Skelton whose presence in the home side’s starting line-up should boost the confidence of their supporters. Although the behemoth second-row does not jump in the lineouts, he brings a unique skill-set to the Wallabies’ onslaught as his immense physical presence gives his side good momentum as a ball carrier, while his huge frame also gives him the ability to disrupt his opponents’ attacks at close quarters in the forward exchanges.
Amongst the Wallabies’ backs, this will be a huge encounter for rookie fly-half Tane Edmed, who is only making his fourth appearance and second start in the international arena. Despite his inexperience, Schmidt has preferred the 25-year-old to veteran playmaker James O’Connor, who wore the number 10 jersey at Eden Park last weekend. Edmed will have to hit the ground running in Perth with his game management and goal-kicking expected to be of a high standard if the hosts want to end their losing streak against the All Blacks.
Meanwhile, the All Blacks welcome back their captain and second-row stalwart Scott Barrett, who missed his side’s previous Bledisloe Cup encounter due to a shoulder injury. Apart from possessing good leadership skills – which will be crucial in this encounter – Barrett is an uncompromising lock who thrives in the implementation of his core duties up front with his ball carrying, lineout and defensive work his main strengths.
Another forward who will be keen to make an impact is rookie back-row Peter Lakai, who comes into the All Blacks’ starting line-up at number eight where he replaces Wallace Sititi. It will be a momentous occasion for Lakai as he is making his first start at Test level after coming off the bench in all four of his previous Test appearances. The 22-year-old brought plenty of energy to the All Blacks cause during an 18-minute stint at Eden Park and will be keen to continue where he left off in that clash.
Also keep an eye on Leicester Fainga’anuku who returns to action for the All Blacks after last featuring for them at the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France. Since then, the 25-year-old spent a couple of seasons at Top 14 outfit Toulon but returned to New Zealand a couple of months ago and has delivered some excellent performances for Tasman in the NPC. Equally at home on the wing or in midfield, Fainga’anuku will wear the number 11 jersey in Perth and should prove a handful with ball in hand to the Wallabies defence.
Main head-to-head
Robertson has sprung a surprise by dropping Billy Proctor from his matchday squad and his spot has been taken by Quinn Tupaea, who comes into the starting XV at outside centre after some barnstorming performances off the bench in New Zealand’s previous Rugby Championship encounters. Although Tupaea has impressed with ball in hand, he faces a difficult task against Wallabies excitement machine Joseph Suaalii, who comes into this encounter as the competition’s leading try-scorer with four five-pointers. Both Suaalii and Tupaea are exceptional attackers which means it could be a case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object when these two collide in midfield. Don’t be surprised if whoever comes out on top in this direct duel, also finishes on the winning side.
Prediction
Just like their previous Bledisloe Cup encounter, we expect this to be a tight affair between two evenly matched teams and, like last weekend, this encounter should also be decided in the game’s closing stages. Although New Zealand will come with a massive onslaught, Australia will do enough to keep them at bay. Wallabies to win by three points and, in doing so, they will end their long losing streak in this fixture.
Previous results
2025: New Zealand won 33-24 in Auckland
2024: New Zealand won 33-13 in Wellington
2024: New Zealand won 31-28 in Sydney
2023: New Zealand won 23-20 in Dunedin
2023: New Zealand won 38-7 in Melbourne
2022: New Zealand won 40-14 in Auckland
2022: New Zealand won 39-37 in Melbourne
2021: New Zealand won 38-21 in Perth
2021: New Zealand won 57-22 in Auckland
2021: New Zealand won 33-25 in Auckland
The teams
Australia: 15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Rob Valetini, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Josh Flook
New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Ruben Love
Date: Saturday, October 4
Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth
Kick-off: 17:45 local time (10:45 BST, 09:45 GMT)
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Morné Ferreira (SARU)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
FPRO: Marius Jonker (SARU)