Springboks in pole position but Wallabies have a better chance than the All Blacks of winning the Rugby Championship
Springboks captain Siya Kolisi and an inset of Wallabies star Joseph Suaalii.
Argentina are the only nation who are out of the running for the Rugby Championship title, with the competition going down to the very last game.
South Africa are in the box seat, having won three of their five matches to date, which gives them a one-point buffer over the tournament’s perennial winners, New Zealand.
As for Australia, they are four points adrift of the table toppers in third place, but can still clinch their first title since 2015 if they shock the All Blacks in Perth and the result in London goes their way.
Ahead of the final round of action, we break down what the three teams that remain in the race need to achieve in order to win the Rugby Championship.
First up, here are the competition rules and how the table is decided in the event of two teams being tied on points.
Rugby Championship competition rules
Points will be awarded in all TRC matches on the following basis: Win 4 points, Draw 2 points, Loss 0 points for loss of more than 7 points, 1 bonus point for 3 tries or more than opponent, 1 bonus point for a loss within 7 points or less.
Position on the competition table shall be determined by competition points as set out above:
1. In the event of two or more teams being equal on competition points for any position on the competition table such position shall be determined by the team with the most wins in the series.
2. In the event of (a) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined by the team with the most wins against the other team/s tied on the same points.
3. In the event of (b) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the margin of points scored for and against in the series. The team with the highest margin of points scored for and against being considered as the winner.
4. In the event of (c) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the margin of points scored for and against by those competing teams. The team with the highest margin of points scored for and against being considered as the winner.
5. In the event of (d) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the basis of the team scoring most tries in the series.
6. In the event of (e) above not providing a decision, the Series shall be shared between the two teams.
How things stand ahead of the final round
The Rugby Championship table.
What the Wallabies need
Joe Schmidt’s charges head into the clash in Perth knowing that they are not fully in control of their own fate, with their chances hinging on the result of the later kick-off between Argentina and South Africa.
The odds are stacked against Australia, though, as their best chance is a victory over the All Blacks, paired with an Argentine win over South Africa, with the latter not earning a losing bonus point. That would see the Wallabies finish on 16 league points, ahead of the Boks by one.
A bonus point win over the All Blacks, accompanied by South Africa collecting zero league points against Argentina, would also be enough, while the Wallabies will also be crowned winners in the event that they end the tournament with the same number of league points as the table toppers.
As detailed above in the competition rules, if two teams cannot be separated by the number of wins or wins in the head-to-head series, then an aggregate scoreline from the head-to-head series will be used to determine the victor.
The Wallabies beat the Springboks 22-38 at Ellis Park before losing 30-22 in Cape Town, meaning that they won the series 52-60 on aggregate.
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What the All Blacks need
Much like the Wallabies, the All Blacks will need a favour from Argentina to win the Rugby Championship.
Being just one point adrift means that a win for New Zealand, paired with a Springboks defeat, will see the former lift the trophy.
Unlike Australia, the All Blacks would not win the Rugby Championship if they finish on the same number of league points as the Springboks, as the latter won the series on an aggregate scoreline of 34-60.
What the Springboks need
Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks are in the fortunate position that they will know precisely what is required of them prior to kick-off against Argentina.
Still, if they back up their performance in Durban and deliver a bonus point victory, they will retain the Rugby Championship title for the first time in the tournament’s history – regardless of the earlier result.
If New Zealand claim a bonus point victory over Australia, then a win of any kind will be sufficient for South Africa as detailed above. However, the Springboks will need to better the Wallabies’ league points tally by one if Schmidt’s charges better the All Blacks.
For example: If Australia claim a win, without a bonus point, South Africa would need just one bonus point to retain the title. If the Wallabies get a bonus point win, the Springboks will need at least two league points.