World Rugby rankings: All Blacks and Ireland target top spot, Wallabies risk all-time low in Joe Schmidt farewell and how the Springboks could fall
Latest World Rankings and an image of Wallabies captain Harry Wilson.
The Springboks put top spot in the World Rugby rankings on the line again this weekend in the Nations Championship, while Australia risk dropping to an all-time low.
The final round of the southern hemisphere leg of the new competition could have a major impact on the top 10 of the World Rugby rankings, with something to play for in every match this weekend.
With the help of World Rugby, here are the weekend’s permutations.
World rankings permutations
Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks cannot improve their rating with a win over Wales regardless of the scoreline because of the 17.58-point differential between the teams. However, if South Africa fall to a defeat at the hands of the lowest-ranked team (12th) in the Nations Championship, they could surrender top spot depending on the result at Eden Park in Auckland.
A loss of any kind paired with an All Blacks victory of more than 15 points over Ireland would see New Zealand return to the summit. Essentially, New Zealand will return to number one in the world if they beat Ireland and South Africa lose to Wales, provided one of the margins is by more than 15 points.
As for Ireland, they will climb above New Zealand into second if they end the All Blacks’ 52-match unbeaten run at Eden Park. Andy Farrell’s men can leapfrog New Zealand and South Africa, returning to top spot for the first time since November 2024, but they will need to win by more than 15 points with South Africa also losing by the same margin in Durban.
The All Blacks can still reduce the gap between the teams to as little as 1.68 rating points in victory. Meanwhile, France are unable to improve their rating with victory over 11th-ranked Japan due to the 11.01-point differential between the teams.
However, Les Bleus will drop two places to sixth if they lose by more than 15 points and Argentina and Scotland beat England and Fiji respectively. France will lose fourth place with a smaller margin of defeat if England beat Los Pumas.
Eddie Jones’ Japan can return to the top 10 for the first time since July 2023 if they avoid defeat and Italy lose to Australia in Perth. The Brave Blossoms can go as high as ninth if they beat France and both Fiji and Italy lose.
Australia risk all-time low
The Wallabies could fall to a new low in Joe Schmidt’s final game as head coach if they lose by more than 15 points to Italy. If that occurs, Australia will drop out of the top 10 for the first time since the World Rugby Men’s Rankings were introduced in October 2003.
That margin alone would not be enough for this to happen, but it would require Fiji to beat Scotland and Japan or Wales to upset France or South Africa, respectively. The Wallabies will drop below a victorious Fiji if beaten by the Azzurri.
Italy would also drop out of the top 10 if they lose by more than 15 points. The Azzurri will become the higher-ranked of the two nations if they win by more than 15 points, with eighth possible if Fiji are beaten by Scotland.
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An equal all-time high of fifth awaits Scotland if they beat Fiji by more than 15 points and Argentina v England ends in a draw. If this scenario plays out in tandem with a France loss by the same margin to Japan, then Scotland will enter the top four for the first time.
A beaten Scotland cannot be caught by Australia this weekend, but they will fall a place regardless of the result in Santiago del Estero. Fiji will climb above Australia into eighth place if they claim a first Nations Championship victory and the Wallabies lose to Italy. However, defeat will put Fiji’s place in the top 10 at risk if Japan and Italy cause upsets.
Finally, England and Argentina will swap places if Los Pumas are victorious. Argentina can go as high as fourth if France lose by more than 15 points to Japan. England can only improve on fifth place with a win if Les Bleus lose in Tokyo.
NEW ZEALAND (2) 91.04 v IRELAND (3) 89.32
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – New Zealand 91.87, Ireland 88.49
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – New Zealand 92.28, Ireland 88.08
Draw – New Zealand 90.87, Ireland 89.49
Ireland win by 15 points or less – New Zealand 89.87, Ireland 90.49
Ireland win by more than 15 points – New Zealand 89.28, Ireland 91.08
JAPAN (11) 76.42 v FRANCE (4) 87.43
Japan win by 15 points or less – Japan 78.42, France 85.43
Japan win by more than 15 points – Japan 79.42, France 84.43
Draw – Japan 77.42, France 86.42
France win by 15 points or less – Japan 76.42, France 87.43 (No change)
France win by more than 15 points – Japan 76.42, France 87.43 (No change)
AUSTRALIA (8) 80.60 v ITALY (10) 77.31
Australia win by 15 points or less – Australia 81.27, Italy 76.64
Australia win by more than 15 points – Australia 81.61, Italy 76.30
Draw – Australia 80.27, Italy 77.64
Italy win by 15 points or less – Australia 79.27, Italy 78.64
Italy win by more than 15 points – Australia 78.61, Italy 79.30
FIJI (9) 78.69 v SCOTLAND (6) 84.09
Fiji win by 15 points or less – Fiji 80.23, Scotland 82.55
Fiji win by more than 15 points – Fiji 81.00, Scotland 81.78
Draw – Fiji 79.23, Scotland 83.55
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Fiji 78.23, Scotland 84.55
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Fiji 78.00, Scotland 84.78
SOUTH AFRICA (1) 93.96 v WALES (12) 76.38
South Africa win by 15 points or less – South Africa 93.96, Wales 76.38 (No change)
South Africa win by more than 15 points – South Africa 93.96, Wales 76.38 (No change)
Draw – South Africa 92.96, Wales 77.38
Wales win by 15 points or less – South Africa 91.96, Wales 78.38
Wales win by more than 15 points – South Africa 90.96, Wales 79.38
ARGENTINA (7) 84.06 v ENGLAND (5) 84.75
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Argentina 85.13, England 83.68
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Argentina 85.66, England 83.15
Draw – Argentina 84.13, England 84.68
England win by 15 points or less – Argentina 83.13, England 85.68
England win by more than 15 points – Argentina 82.66, England 86.15
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Current World Rugby Rankings
1 South Africa 93.96
2 New Zealand 91.04
3 Ireland 89.32
4 France 87.43
5 England 84.75
6 Scotland 84.09
7 Argentina 84.06
8 Australia 80.60
9 Fiji 78.69
10 Italy 77.31
11 Japan 76.42
12 Wales 76.38
13 Georgia 73.30
14 USA 69.40
15 Portugal 68.67
16 Spain 67.66
17 Uruguay 67.62
18 Chile 67.59
19 Samoa 66.27
20 Tonga 65.85
