Springboks predicted team: Cheslin Kolbe switch on the cards as Rassie Erasmus to hand rookie a debut against Japan
Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus, back Cheslin Kolbe and rookie prop Zachary Porthen.
The Springboks will kick off their end-of-year internationals with a fixture against Japan at Wembley Stadium, with the two nations meeting in England, 10 years on from the ‘Brighton Miracle’.
The match takes place outside of World Rugby’s official Test window, meaning that head coach Rassie Erasmus will not be able to call on any of the players based at PREM Rugby clubs or overseas United Rugby Championship (URC) teams.
However, SA Rugby has reached an agreement with the Japanese clubs to provide the Boks contracted to those teams special dispensation to play against the Brave Blossoms and the other match outside the window against Wales.
This is according to Rapport with Erasmus confirming the news at a press conference following the announcement of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour.
“The Japan game is set up for us for the Japan-based players who don’t currently play in the league and for some players who are coming back from injury,” he explained.
With this in mind, we take a stab at predicting who will crack the nod to feature in the Test match against Japan at the home of English Football.
15 Cheslin Kolbe
As Erasmus explained, the clash against Eddie Jones’ charges will provide the players contracted to Japanese clubs the opportunity to get some match minutes under their belt.
Therefore, Cheslin Kolbe is bound to feature in some shape or form and perhaps earn just his second start for South Africa at full-back. The double World Cup winner plays much of his rugby in the number 15 jersey for Suntory Sungoliath and did so for Toulouse and Toulon too, but has rarely done that job for the Boks.
With Aphelele Fassi ruled out through injury and Willie le Roux dropped, Damian Willemse is the only player who has started in the Green and Gold jumper this year that has been included in the squad.
Willemse could well start all five of the remaining Bok fixtures in the position, but it’s more likely that Erasmus will use this opportunity to test further options in the position, and he isn’t short of players who could fill the role.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is another option, as is Kurt-Lee Arendse and Edwill van der Merwe, while Manie Libbok and Canan Moodie are potential candidates but rather unlikely ones.
14 Kurt-Lee Arendse
Arendse has not played since the Rugby Championship opener against Australia at Ellis Park and was listed as a non-travelling reserve for the Bulls earlier this month.
It is unlikely that he would feature in Johan Ackermann’s team against Glasgow Warriors this weekend, meaning that he will require some game time if he is to play against the likes of Ireland and France.
As mentioned above, he could well start at full-back against Japan, but he will surely pull on a Green and Gold jersey at Wembley.
13 Jesse Kriel (c)
One of the few Springboks who played in that match 10 years ago and will get a shot at redemption. Jesse Kriel could well captain the team too if our prediction is right.
He came off the bench in South Africa’s final Rugby Championship last month, but we’d imagine that most of the Japan-based Boks will play the first end-of-year tour matches.
12 Damian de Allende
Damian de Allende was part of the squad that lost to Japan a decade ago, but was not in the matchday team. He still will have felt the pain of the defeat and is likely to combine with Kriel as the pair extend their record as the most-capped centre combination in Bok history.
Andre Esterhuizen shone for the Sharks on his return, and either of the two powerhouse midfielders could start in the role, or Willemse, but again, the Japan-based players seem likely to get preference.
11 Edwill van der Merwe
The back-three that we’ve predicted is pretty much interchangeable, with Van der Merwe bound to feature in some shape or form.
Like Arendse, he hasn’t played international rugby since the opening round of the Rugby Championship. He has played the first four rounds of the URC for the Sharks, but could still be entrusted with one of the starting roles.
If not him, Moodie and Ethan Hooker provide further options.
10 Manie Libbok
It’s been difficult to predict who Erasmus would select in the number 10 jersey for any given Test this year, but this one does seem a bit more straightforward.
Handre Pollard has racked up the most minutes in the role before the final game of the Rugby Championship, while Libbok remains the only fly-half who hasn’t played since the tournament following his move from the Stormers to the Kintetsu Liners in Japan.
9 Cobus Reinach
A coin toss. Perhaps the fact that Cobus Reinach hasn’t made his Stormers debut yet points to a selection against Japan.
Meanwhile, Grant Williams and Morne van den Berg have both turned out for their URC teams since the conclusion of the Rugby Championship.
8 Jasper Wiese
Again, we predict that players contracted to Japanese clubs will get favoured for this fixture, and Jasper Wiese is another who hasn’t played since the clash against Argentina.
It would not be overly surprising if he featured in all five November tour fixtures, considering the lack of minutes he has racked up this year and the shortage of number eights included in the squad.
Kwagga Smith could also pack down at the back of the scrum, while it seems unlikely that Siya Kolisi will play any part in this match.
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
While Pieter-Steph du Toit has played most of the Springboks’ matches this year, he missed the entire domestic season for Toyota Verblitz.
He was a starter against Jones’ Japan 10 years ago and will be licking his lips to get another crack at the Brave Blossoms.
If not him, Franco Mostert and Ruan Nortje are other makeshift blindside flanker options, while Ben-Jason Dixon could mark his return to international rugby in the fixture.
6 Kwagga Smith
With Kolisi playing for the Sharks following the conclusion of the Rugby Championship, it looks likely that he will be saved for the likes of France and Ireland, possibly earning his 100th Test cap against the latter if he doesn’t against Italy.
That leaves Smith and Marco van Staden as the frontrunners for the number six jersey. The former is mightily effective from the bench for the Springboks, but often starts these outside of the window matches for South Africa.
5 Franco Mostert
Quite simply, Mostert is in need of minutes. The veteran lock hasn’t played since the round two Rugby Championship clash against Australia in Cape Town.
Nortje is another who could well make the 23, having yet to play in the URC after rejoining the Bulls after the Rugby Championship.
4 Lood de Jager
Lood de Jager is likely to join Mostert in the second-row as he too is short on game time, having last played against the All Blacks in Wellington in September.
RG Snyman is unavailable as he is contracted to Leinster and is not required to be released to the Springboks under World Rugby regulations. The same is true for Munster’s Jean Kleyn.
3 Zachary Porthen
There are just three tighthead props in the Springboks touring squad: Wilco Louw, Zachary Porthen and Thomas du Toit.
Bath-based Du Toit won’t be available to the Boks for this fixture, meaning that Louw or Porthen are the likeliest starters against Japan.
Sure, Erasmus and scrum coach Daan Human could throw a surprise and test Ox Nche or Jan-Hendrik Wessels as a tighthead prop. A gamble but not a massive one considering that Japan aren’t renowned for their scrummaging prowess. With that in mind, a Test debut for 21-year-old Stormers prop Porthen looks to be on the cards.
His inclusion in the starting line-up allows for Louw to be included on the bench as a destructive insurance policy.
2 Malcolm Marx
All of the hookers in the squad will be available for selection to Erasmus against Japan.
The starting hooker berth will hinge on whether the coaching staff want to save Malcolm Marx for later in November or not. If they feel he is in need of minutes, he will surely start against the Boks. If it’s the latter, then it’s likely that Johan Grobbelaar will start with Wessels on the bench.
1 Gerhard Steenekamp
Finally, we predict that Gerhard Steenekamp will be in the mix, whether he starts or comes off the bench. The Bulls loosehead quickly became regular in matchday 23s after the 2023 Rugby World Cup, going a long way in filling the void left by Steven Kitshoff’s retirement.
Boan Venter is another who won’t be eligible for selection, leaving the loosehead prop options at Erasmus’ disposal to Wessels and Nche.
The clash against Japan will ease Steenekamp back into international rugby in the set-pieces, but will provide a litmus test on the pace South Africa can expect later in the month.
The bench
Johan Grobbelaar, Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Wilco Louw, Ruan Nortje, Ben-Jason Dixon, Morne van den Berg, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Ethan Hooker
Japan are renowned for their high-paced game, backing their fitness and skill-set. This will certainly play into Erasmus’ selections on the bench, where we predict that he will back youthful backs with the likes of Van den Berg, Feinberg-Mngomezulu, and Hooker; perhaps even Willemse.
The same applies to the forward five forwards, including the three Bulls forwards and lock Nortje. Van Staden could pip Dixon for a spot on the bench in a bid to slow their breakdown.
