Australia v New Zealand prediction: All Blacks’ Bomb Squad to extend record run after finding an answer to Wallabies’ strength
Damian McKenzie and Declan Meredith face off at 10 in Sydney.
Both sides have been hit hard by injury since Eden Park, Australia at fly-half and centre and New Zealand at fly-half and on the wing, and Saturday’s second Bledisloe Cup Test at Accor Stadium will go to whoever copes with it better.
The top line
Dave Rennie coached the Wallabies for three seasons and knows exactly how that changing room feels this week, which is why his line on Thursday, that Australia are a proud side who’ll be hurting after Eden Park, was said with some feeling. He brings his All Blacks to Sydney with the Bledisloe Cup retained for a 24th straight year, 12 wins on the bounce in the fixture and a casualty list that would test any squad.
Australia haven’t beaten New Zealand since Brisbane in November 2020, they haven’t beaten them in Sydney since 2015, and the last meeting at this ground, two years ago, finished 31-28 to the All Blacks after a late Wallaby rally. The Cup is gone for another year, but this is Australia’s last home Test of 2026, and a win would be their first over New Zealand in six years, twelve months out from a home World Cup.
The writer tipped Australia 32-27 in Auckland and has been reminded of it most days since. The first half finished 17-14 and could have gone either way; the second finished 33-5, New Zealand ran in seven tries to three, Les Kiss lost for the first time as Wallabies coach and the Eden Park record stretched to 54 Tests unbeaten.
And, here’s the thing: both coaches left Auckland with longer injury lists than they arrived with. New Zealand were already without Ardie Savea, Ruben Love and Luke Jacobson for the year; Richie Mo’unga’s calf is now a six to eight week job that may keep him out of the Nations Championship tour altogether, Leroy Carter’s ankle went as he scored, Anton Segner and Asafo Aumua are concussed after clashing heads in the same tackle, and Ethan Blackadder and Fehi Fineanganofo are out as well.
New Zealand’s list is the longer one, but Australia’s cuts through the middle of their attack, the fly-half and both centres who started in Perth. Carter Gordon and Tom Lynagh were already out, Ben Donaldson felt his kicking leg on Thursday morning and didn’t train, Len Ikitau failed an HIA inside the first half-hour at Eden Park and is serving his stand-down, Hunter Paisami is suspended, Jordan Petaia rolled an ankle in training, and Taniela Tupou and Tom Hooper are back at Racing 92 and Exeter because this Test sits outside the window. Declan Meredith, three caps, becomes the seventh different Wallaby fly-half in 17 Tests, which is the sort of turnover you’d associate with a Sydney car hire rental rather than a Test jersey.
So, to the selections. Rennie changes three starters and five on the bench: Josh Moorby for Carter on the left wing, Fabian Holland back at lock for Josh Lord and George Bower at loosehead for Ethan de Groot, the last two dropped rather than injured, whilst Scott Barrett, who left Eden Park with the medics, is passed fit to start. Kiss changes four and moves two: Meredith for Donaldson, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii back to 13 with Isaac Henry moving in to 12, Harry Potter up from the bench to the left wing, Aidan Ross for Angus Bell at loosehead, and Josh Nasser for Brandon Paenga-Amosa at hooker, with Bell on the bench and Paenga-Amosa dropped from the 23 completely. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto wins his 50th cap, and Rob Valetini keeps his place despite the tackle that ended Carter’s evening.
Where the game will be won
In the air, first and foremost, because that’s where Eden Park was decided. Rennie put a number on it this week: by his count only about one contestable kick in four is caught clean by the receiving side, so the team kicking the ball either wins it or feeds off the scraps, and New Zealand’s answer in Auckland was to come forward and compete for everything, with the chasers tracking back to block legally and Will Jordan’s track-back starting the move for one of the seven tries. Australia’s back three had been picked to win that battle and lost it, and the box-kicking that won Perth went missing with it.
So both coaches have shuffled. Suaalii goes back to 13, which makes the Wallaby aerial unit Potter, Max Jorgensen and Tom Wright, and Rennie has picked Moorby over Rieko Ioane because he expects Australia’s kicking to be shorter and more contestable this week. Kiss will want his catchers starting deeper, so they get pace into the leap, with a sweeper behind them to tidy the drop zone, because a static jumper against a chaser arriving at full tilt loses that contest far more often than not. Luke Pearce, swapped from the touchline to the whistle, will have the escort runner in his eyeline all afternoon, and even Rennie admits that anyone who gets near blocking is a penalty waiting to happen, and a soft one at that.
The second thing is what New Zealand did without the ball, and the order of events matters. They won the aerial exchanges first, the territory followed, and by the second half they had almost 60 per cent of the possession to go with 61 per cent of the ground; before that, with the ball mostly in Australian hands, they coughed up 13 turnovers and still conceded nothing cheap at the breakdown or the set-piece, winning the first 20 minutes of each half 14-7 and 14-0. The Wallabies made 200 tackles to 144 and missed 30 of them, and losing Ikitau took the organisation out of the midfield before the fatigue arrived. Kiss’s answer is two specialist opensides, Fraser McReight from the start and Carlo Tizzano from the bench, to slow New Zealand’s ball at source, but there’s a dependency in that worth spelling out. A fetcher only gets a shot at the ball when the tackle in front of him has stopped the carrier on or behind the gainline; if the All Black forwards are winning the collision, the ruck is formed and the ball gone before McReight arrives, and he’s a spectator. So Australia have to tackle their way into those positions first, and last week’s tackle load is the number that should worry Kiss most.
Put bluntly, the 20 minutes after the interval are where Australia have been losing their grip, and it’s happened twice in a fortnight. In Perth they led the Springboks by 25 and finished the match with 11 men on the pitch; at Eden Park it was 17-14 at the break and still a one-score game until Roigard went over on 48 minutes, and from there New Zealand scored 26 points without reply, Codie Taylor finishing Jordie Barrett’s four-carry sequence on 54 and Carter scoring on 67. The answer isn’t complicated, though it’s hard to do with a tired pack: hold the ball for longer spells in that window, kick to the corners rather than to Beauden Barrett in space, and bring the replacements on in it rather than after it, which is presumably why Kiss has loaded his bench with Bell, Josh Canham and Tizzano, three men he’ll want on the field by the 55th minute rather than the 65th.
Sure, the set-piece is where Australia can hurt them, and they know it. Jeremy Williams won three New Zealand throws last week by Rugby Australia’s count, the maul produced Nasser’s try after two earlier drives had been stopped, one by a superb New Zealand goal-line stand and one by an obstruction penalty, and Nasser now starts. At the scrum Ross packs down against Fletcher Newell and Bower against Allan Alaalatoa, but Holland’s return gives New Zealand a second jumper of serious height alongside Barrett.
What they said
Rennie’s explanation of his selection was all about continuity. Asked why the uncapped Josh Jacomb wasn’t in the 23 with Mo’unga and Love both missing, he said the squad wanted consistency, that Damian McKenzie had only had one run at ten, and that most of last week’s side had earned another go. He was frank about Mo’unga, conceding that even a five-week return would cost the first two or three games of the tour.
Kiss was asked about Donaldson and didn’t dress it up: the fly-half was given until Thursday’s session to prove his fitness, the staff decided it wasn’t worth the risk for him or the team, and they moved on. He has, in his words, a lot of trust in Meredith’s game, a ten who takes the line on, kicks well and defends solidly, and he described Harry McLaughlin-Phillips as a physical ten in the same mould. On the week itself, he said Australia got a clear picture at Eden Park of where they need to be better.
Suaalii, for his part, reckons his two Tests on the wing will make him a better all-round player whatever number he’s handed, and said he’d enjoyed it; he gets 13 back on Saturday, and with it the chance to be closer to the ball than Eden Park allowed.
Players to watch
For New Zealand, start with Josh Moorby, who gets Carter’s job in the air as well as his wing. Fabian Holland is back in the engine room after a week out of the 23 that nobody explained, and gives the lineout a second tall target. From the bench, Timoci Tavatavanawai will be sent into a tiring defence with ball in hand, whilst Du’Plessis Kirifi, called in as injury cover only after Eden Park, could be the most important replacement of the lot if the breakdown gets messy. And then there’s Peter Lakai, a try, a steal, a high-ball win and the break that made Carter’s try last week; he’s the man the Wallabies have to keep off their ball.
For Australia it starts and ends with Declan Meredith, because a three-cap ten running a reshuffled backline against this defence is the afternoon in a nutshell. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii at 13, where he’s played most of his 25 Tests, gives Australia a big carrier in the wide channel and gives Quinn Tupaea something more physical to think about than last week. Josh Nasser starts his first Bledisloe on the back of that maul try, Carlo Tizzano gives Kiss a second fetcher for the last half-hour, and Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, 22 and fresh from winning the Super Rugby AUS title with the Western Force, becomes Wallaby number 1001 the moment he runs on.
Main head-to-head
New Zealand’s attack in Auckland was built on a screen, and Australia will see it again on Saturday. Time and again a centre or a back-five forward stood at first receiver with Damian McKenzie hidden behind him; he arrived late and fast, and only then decided whether to take the ball to the line himself or play out the back. The Wallaby defenders read the screen as the threat and set themselves for it, which meant adjusting at the last moment to a fly-half arriving at pace, and that half-second was all he needed; he beat four defenders and put Wallace Sititi and Jordan through, and only loose final passes stopped both breaks becoming tries. It works because of the man inside him. Jordie Barrett swapped into first receiver cleverly all night, so with Barrett and Roigard managing the game around him McKenzie was free to play what was in front of him, and with Mo’unga’s calf what it is, he’ll keep the jersey for a while yet.
Declan Meredith‘s task is harder and he has fewer helpers. Australia’s two first-half tries at Eden Park came from set-up rugby, Wright’s off a lineout with penalty advantage and Harry Wilson’s from his own work at first receiver, holding Sititi in the second defensive pillar and popping to Donaldson through the hole, so the structure is there; Meredith has to run it with a reshuffled midfield outside him and his Brumbies half-back partner Ryan Lonergan as the one familiar face. Kiss likes him because he takes the line on, and he kicks well enough for the territory game Australia need, but his cameo off the bench last week was a bumpy one, and New Zealand’s defence will be sent at him from the first minute to find out how he copes with it.
Prediction
There’s a proper case for Australia. They’re at home, they’re hurting, Wilson made 28 tackles last week and created and finished his own try, Wright beat five defenders and ran 66 metres, the lineout work and the maul travel anywhere, and Kiss showed in Perth that he can solve a problem while the game’s still being played. For 50 minutes at Eden Park they were competitive, and for ten of them they were very good.
But the second half there was New Zealand’s by 28 points, and nothing that has happened since narrows that. Australia have lost their fly-half and their best centre and moved four backs around; New Zealand have lost a wing and two concussed forwards, picked a side that largely played together seven days ago with a bench that finished the last Test, and have a 12 in Jordie Barrett playing the rugby of his life. The Wallaby tackle count will climb again, the 50 to 70 will be the period that decides it, and we think the New Zealand bench does to this one what it did in Auckland. We’re going New Zealand by 17, 38-21, and a 13th straight win over the Wallabies before both sides head for Britain next month.
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The teams
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Isaac Henry, 11 Harry Potter, 10 Declan Meredith, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Josh Nasser, 1 Aidan Ross
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Massimo De Lutiis, 19 Josh Canham, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Kalani Thomas, 22 Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, 23 Filipo Daugunu
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (c), 1 George Bower
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Shannon Frizell, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Rieko Ioane
Date: Saturday, 17 October 2026
Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 15:45 (local AEDT), 05:45 (UK), 06:45 (France), 06:45 (South Africa), 15:45 (AEDT), 17:45 (New Zealand), 01:45 (Argentina), 13:45 (JST), 00:45 (EDT)
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace (IRFU) and Damian Schneider (UAR)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
FPRO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
Broadcasters: Nine Network / Stan Sport (Australia), Sky Sport (New Zealand), Sky Sports (United Kingdom & Ireland), SuperSport (South Africa / Africa), Canal+ (France / Andorra / Monaco / Luxembourg), FloSports (USA), TSN (Canada), ESPN (Argentina / South America), Wowow (Japan), Sky Italia (Italy), Premier Sports (much of Asia), Digicel / Sky Pacific (Pacific Islands)
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