All Blacks v Wallabies prediction: Bledisloe Cup ‘love affair’ to continue as Springboks-inflicted wounds begin to heal
Beauden Barrett and James O'Connor collide in the All Blacks v Wallabies clash.
It has been a long and painful 22 years for the Wallabies but there is a growing sense that their wait to grab the Bledisloe Cup off the All Blacks is nearing its end.
Not since 2002 has Australia had their hands on the coveted silverware as New Zealand’s vice-like grip has kept a firm hold ever since under several coaching regimes.
However, there is genuine hope that the group Joe Schmidt has assembled is maturing into a heavyweight Test outfit and while it might not bring success in 2025, there’s little doubt brighter things are nearing for Australian rugby fans. Schmidt has worked wonders and the ship is now most definitely pointing in the right direction.
Injuries to key players and the absence of Will Skelton due to commitments in France does hinder their hopes of what would be a remarkable Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup double. But write them off at your peril as they’ve shown more than enough this year to cause an All Blacks side reeling from a humiliating loss problems.
Indeed, New Zealand will be desperate for a response after that 43-10 defeat to the Springboks as they look to prove it was a freak last quarter and nothing more serious.
In terms of the Bledisloe Cup, just one win over these two matches would be enough to retain the trophy, but one imagines that only back-to-back successes would suffice if they’re to wrestle the Rugby Championship title from South Africa, who have a dangerous Argentina outfit in Durban and Twickenham as their final two fixtures.
The tournament is set for a fascinating climax with the pressure very much on the All Blacks as they look to continue their Bledisloe Cup love affair at fortress Eden Park.
Where the game will be won
Set-piece, as always, will be vital and the All Blacks simply have to improve in that facet or else Australia will spoil the party through the likes of Nick Frost. If New Zealand can shore up that area it makes life so much easier for Cam Roigard and Beauden Barrett to unleash their strike runners and initiate the strike plays off first phase.
Conversely, if the Wallabies can upset New Zealand and win the gainline, they cannot be written off as several other battles appear to be evenly matched in a Test that should go all the way, with Australia finishing strongly this year. However, a bolstered All Blacks bench looks equipped to match them toe-to-toe in the final knockings.
Last time they met
What they said
All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson has backed his side to ‘learn on stage’, after he kept faith with 17 players from the 43-10 defeat to the Springboks last time out.
“We chased a game that got away from us (against South Africa in Wellington), but for the majority, we played some good footie,” he stated ahead of key home match.
“A good core of those guys get to play again; you learn on stage, and they are under the spotlight. It’s another chance for them.”
Wallabies head coach Schmidt insists his team is under no illusions of the task at hand and also paid tribute to two players who will run out for milestone fixtures.
“The squad have worked away this week, fully aware of the challenge that awaits at Eden Park,” he said.
“It’s a fitting occasion for James Slipper to reach the milestone of 150 Test matches and for Tate McDermott to represent the Wallabies for the 50th time.”
Players to watch
The return to international action of Cam Roigard cannot be understated as he was the heir apparent to Aaron Smith but unfortunately has struggled with injury setbacks that have blighted his still young Test career. The hope for New Zealand fans is that he now enjoys a long and uninterrupted All Blacks career as when fit he is a truly special talent, able to light the spark seemingly from nothing. There is no doubt his return could be the catalyst as New Zealand look to bounce back.
A fellow returnee who is key to the All Blacks’ cause is Codie Taylor, whose absence against the Springboks was keenly felt. It’s not just his mobility and skill set around the field that makes him a supreme animal but Taylor’s bread and butter, the set-piece, that puts him out on his own in terms of New Zealand’s hookers. It was clear last time out they missed his solidity in this department and Robertson and forwards guru Jason Ryan will hope the veteran’s comeback shores up what will be a vital area.
For the Wallabies, it’s hard not to look past another returnee in Len Ikitau, who has been outstanding in gold this season alongside Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii. Such a balanced player, Ikitau has become one of the first names on Schmidt’s teamsheet of late and could be a huge threat to the All Blacks at Eden Park on Saturday.
Elsewhere, the shift of Max Jorgensen from wing to full-back in the absence of the injured Andrew Kellaway is another test for this young Wallaby to answer. But judging from how he’s taken to international rugby like a duck to water, we’d expect nothing more than a strong, all-action performance despite the obvious questions New Zealand will look to pose. He is a special talent who has no fear and will hope to prove his versatility on the biggest of stages, which we expect him to do.
Main head-to-head
Two old stagers lock horns at 10 and it should be some watch as Beauden Barrett and James O’Connor face off. With a combined age of 69 years, these two have been there, seen it and done it but this week is right up there in terms of importance. The All Blacks, as mentioned, desperately need a response after that capitulation against the Boks and Barrett therefore must be faultless in his decision-making alongside Roigard. If they are not, the evergreen O’Connor is more than capable of orchestrating a famous win that would leave Australia with a shot at claiming the coveted Bledisloe Cup trophy that has eluded them for so long.
We’re also fascinated to see how All Blacks captain Ardie Savea fares as he takes over the leadership in the absence of Scott Barrett. Some have suggested the captaincy should be Savea’s going forward and it will be interesting to see if an inspirational and measured performance does leave Razor with a choice to make.
Prediction
While the Wallabies are a dangerous animal and New Zealand are wounded after that Springbok mauling, the absence of Skelton, Kellaway, Rob Valetini and Tom Wright, to name a few, is a setback. One feels these Kiwis are poised to unleash a backlash and it would therefore be a surprise to see them stumble, especially at fortress Eden Park. All Blacks by 8!
Previous results
2024: New Zealand won 33-13 in Wellington
2024: New Zealand won 31-28 in Sydney
2023: New Zealand won 23-20 in Dunedin
2023: New Zealand won 38-7 in Melbourne
2022: New Zealand won 40-14 in Auckland
2022: New Zealand won 39-37 in Melbourne
2021: New Zealand won 38-21 in Perth
2021: New Zealand won 57-22 in Auckland
2021: New Zealand won 33-25 in Auckland
2020: Australia won 24-22 in Brisbane
2020: New Zealand won 43-5 in Sydney
The teams
All Blacks: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Ardie Savea (c), 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’ahoo, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Damian McKenzie
Wallabies: 15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Corey Toole, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Filipo Daugunu
Date: Saturday, September 27
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 17:05 local (06:05 BST, 05:05 GMT)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU) and Morné Ferreira (SARU)
TMO: Marius Jonker (SARU)
FPRO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
READ MORE: All Blacks team: Five takeaways as Ardie Savea could force Scott Robertson into ‘big decision’