All Blacks to copy Wallabies as ex-player reveals area Springboks are ‘exposed’ and expected gameplan
All Blacks vs Springboks: New Zealand to copy style of Wallabies
Former All Blacks and Blues hooker James Parsons has taken a deep dive into the Springboks’ stats ahead of their showdown with the All Blacks on Saturday, as the two sides come together for what could end up seeing the three-time world champions stretching their unbeaten run at Eden Park to 51 games.
The highly anticipated Rugby Championship fixture is far from a foregone conclusion for the home side, however, as they prepare to battle the only side who have won more World Cups.
The current world champions head to Auckland having won four victories in a row over their old rivals, so they will be filled with a ‘not so quiet’ confidence as they prepare to break the All Blacks’ excellent run at the home of the Blues.
It’s difficult to pick a favourite ahead of Saturday’s match, but Parsons has claimed that Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson’s side will need to take notes from the Wallabies’ recent victory over the Springboks.
Copying the Wallabies by sticking to the All Blacks’ DNA
Speaking on Sky Sports’ Aotearoa Rugby Pod, the centurion Blues player said: “When the Wallabies won, what did they do? It’s potentially going to be wet on Saturday night, there is going to be a lot of kicking, so you’ve got to pick the people that are going to play the best and be able to exploit the weaknesses that South Africa showed against the Wallabies. And those weren’t always contestable kicks.
“O’Connor found some nice 50:22’s, little tops [over-the-top] kicks, Nick White grubbers in behind. So those are all options to be regained as well.
“Through the hands is still in the rugby DNA of New Zealand. I think one line break in the last game, two previous, even though if it’s wet, can we chance ourselves? Just get that balance between risk and reward.
“If you look at last year’s stats, much higher line breaks, much higher offloads, much more defenders, better opportunities created, but less finished. We’ve become very clinical at finishing when we get into the 22, but maybe haven’t chanced our arm as much outside of the 22, so is there an element of keeping the ball in hand?
“The Springboks’ rush defence did get exposed a lot by the Wallabies just by giving those bridge passes. So I think for the All Blacks, you’ve got to know what the conditions are, and you’ve got to be able to match the aerial game, one, stopping South Africa, and two, regaining your own ball.”
The former Blues skipper was keen to stress just how important it is to remain true to their own DNA, however, stressing that the fans want to see their side play with ball in hand.
“Don’t go too far away from what you know,” he said. Referring to their loss against Argentina, he added: “It’s one bad result, but the rest, if you look at that second test against France in Wellington, a lot of ball was kept in hands, and it created a lot of excitement.”
Parsons waded through the Springboks’ stats, highlighting the importance of the All Blacks’ flair when it comes to taking advantage of the Springboks’ weaknesses on the day.
“When South Africa win, they tackle at 85%. When they lose, they tackle at 82%. I know it’s only 3% different, but in Test match level footy, you only get a few opportunities, and you’ve got to be able to take them, which the Wallabies did so well in that first Test.”
Springboks conservatism
Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus is known as one of the most innovative coaches in world rugby, constantly pushing the boundaries of what is expected and accepted in the modern game. But just because he’s open to experimentation does not mean he’s not a pragmatic coach.
“It’s going to be a pretty conservative game plan, just based on run stats and their ability to retain ball through contestables,” said Parsons.
“When you look at this season so far, when they’ve won, they’ve had five and a half line breaks. On average, when they’ve lost, they’ve had 14 line breaks.
“When they’ve lost, out of those 14 line breaks, they’ve only scored one and a half points when entering the 22, but with the five and a half line breaks, they’ve scored four.
“So when they’re a little bit more conservative in nature, that actually leads to more victories for them. We saw an adjustment after that loss against the Wallabies to go more like that.
“In terms of their gain line stats, when they’ve lost, the gain line stats were at 78%, and when they’ve won 64%.
“So when they were playing fastball, when they were playing on top, it did increase the errors and the turnovers, and from those turnovers late in the game, we saw Tom Wright’s try.
“So if you look at those numbers, why would you not go to a contestable kick all day? So I think the numbers suggest that I don’t think we’re going to get a South African side that’s going to chance their arm in attack.”
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