Wales v Springboks prediction: Rassie Erasmus’ troops to end year on a high with ‘dominant triumph’ in Cardiff
Wales fly-half Dan Edwards and Springboks counterpart Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
After several exciting Tests over the past month, this year’s Autumn Nations Series will reach its conclusion at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday where Wales collide with the world champions, South Africa.
This fixture is taking place outside the international window which means that both nations were unable to select their foreign-based members of their respective squads.
With the Springboks having plenty of depth in their ranks, head coach Rassie Erasmus has still been able to announce a powerful matchday squad with a 7/1 replacements bench.
Despite being unable to field the bulk of their overseas players, the Boks did have access to some of their Japan-based stars like Damian de Allende, Jasper Wiese and Franco Mostert, who have all been included in the run-on side.
Meanwhile, it’s a similar story for Wales boss Steve Tandy as numerous of his squad members ply their trade in the Prem while Adam Beard is currently on the books of Top 14 outfit Montpellier.
Heading into this weekend’s encounter, these sides are on opposite ends of the spectrum in World Rugby’s official rankings with the Springboks sitting pretty at the top while Wales occupy 11th position.
The Boks are currently in a rich vein of form as they head into this clash after claiming impressive victories in all four their previous Autumn Nations Series Tests – against Japan, France, Italy and Ireland.
It’s a totally different situation for the home side as they started their campaign with a big loss against Argentina, before clinching a last-gasp triumph over Japan, but last weekend they suffered another huge defeat against the All Blacks.
Where the game will be won
Although Wales face a gargantuan task against the world champions, if they want to cause an upset they will have to match their opponents in the forward battle as that will determine the result. That is, of course, the case in most matches but with South Africa opting for a 7/1 forward heavy split on their replacements bench, there is no secret in how the Springboks will approach this encounter. Whoever dominates the tight exchanges and provides good, front foot ball to their backs, will be in control of proceedings and will ultimately come out on top.
Last time they met
What they said
Wales speedster Rio Dyer is preparing for a tough encounter against the world champions and expects his opponents to come with a big onslaught.
“They’ve got threats all across the board, and they want to get the ball to their threats,” he said.
“They’re elusive, they like playing the open game, and I think it’s making sure in those moments you’re not switching off for that one second, because as soon as you switch off, those kind of players then take their opportunity, and they’ll chuck a cross-field kick in or they’ll make the break.”
Although the Boks will be overwhelming favourites, Erasmus is not underestimating the home side.
“Both teams were in a similar situation with regards to the availability of players, but they have a balanced squad with a few seasoned players and several younger guys who will be desperate to make a statement,” he explained.
“So, we are expecting them to come out firing and to throw everything at us.
“This is also the last match of the year for both teams, so there’s no doubt they’ll give everything to finish their season on a high note and try to improve their world ranking with the Rugby World Cup draw coming up next week.”
Players to watch
After being a late withdrawal from Wales’ matchday squad for last weekend’s clash against New Zealand, due to a hip injury, experienced back-row Aaron Wainwright has made a full recovery and returns to the run-on side at number eight against the Springboks. The Dragons star’s presence was missed against the All Blacks as he has proven over the years that he is outstanding either side of the ball and if he can deliver another superb all-round performance, it will be valuable to the Welsh cause.
Although Wales have found the going tough in recent years and are yet to deliver an impressive 80-minute performance during the Autumn Nations Series, Tandy has opted to include several inexperienced players in his matchday squads and one of those who has showed plenty of promise is young fly-half Dan Edwards. A brilliant playmaker, who is solid off the kicking tee, the Ospreys playmaker will wear Wales’ number 10 jersey for the fourth successive Test after also starting against Argentina, Japan and New Zealand. He will have to hit the ground running against the world champions if the home side want to cause an upset.
Another player to keep an eye on is Edwards’ half-back partner and Ospreys clubmate Kieran Hardy, who comes into the starting line-up as a replacement for first choice scrum-half Tomos Williams. With Williams being one Wales’ best players, Hardy has had limited game-time for his country as he only featured for a combined total of 16 minutes off the bench during their last three Tests and will be champing at the bit to show his ability now that he gets a rare start, against the world champions.
From a South African perspective, there will be plenty of attacking threats in their backline with the Stormers duo of Damian Willemse and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu expected to lead the way. Full-back Willemse possesses an astute rugby brain, quick feet as well as excellent distribution skills and those characteristics will be expected to give the world champions good attacking momentum from the back.
Meanwhile, fly-half Feinberg-Mngomezulu is the team’s chief playmaker, who can unlock the tightest defences with his outstanding skill set. After making his Springboks debut just last year, the 23-year-old’s international career has come on in leaps and bounds and he is now firmly entrenched as the world champions’ first choice fly-half, after starting six out of their last seven Tests. If Willemse and Feinberg-Mngomezulu are on song, it will be a tough encounter for the hosts.
For excitement machines like the aforementioned duo to shine, their forwards have to come to the party and a player who will be determined to make his presence felt in this encounter is burly tighthead prop Wilco Louw. The Bulls stalwart is renowned as one of the most powerful scrummagers in the international arena and if he gets a solid right shoulder in the set-piece, it should have devastating consequences for the Welsh.
Prediction
Although the Springboks are without the services of numerous first choice players, they have plenty of depth in their ranks and should have too much firepower for their hosts. With Wales also being unable to call on several of their regulars, this match presents opportunities to fringe players to impress Tandy. The home side should be competitive during the early stages but the Boks have too much quality and should cruise to a dominant triumph in the end. Springboks to win by 30 points.
Previous results
2024: South Africa won 45-12 in Cardiff
2024: South Africa won 41-13 at Twickenham
2023: South Africa won 52-16 in Cardiff
2022: South Africa on 30-14 in Cape Town
2022: Wales won 13-12 in Bloemfontein
2022: South Africa won 32-29 in Pretoria
2021: South Africa won 23-18 in Cardiff
2019: South Africa won 19-16 in Yokohama (RWC)
The teams
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Alex Mann, 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Rhys Davies, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Christian Coleman 19 James Ratti, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Ben Thomas
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Damian de Allende, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Zachary Porthen, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Ben-Jason Dixon, 22 Kwagga Smith, 23 Cobus Reinach
Date: Saturday, November 29
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 15:10 GMT (17:10 SAST)
Referee: Luc Ramos (FFR)
Assistant referees: Matthew Carley (RFU), Pierre Brousset (FFR)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
FPRO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)