Wales v Italy prediction: Azzurri to continue Cardiff dominance as a hat-trick of winless Six Nations campaigns awaits Steve Tandy’s men
Wales flanker Alex Mann and Italy counterpart Michele Lamaro.
Wales and Italy will be determined to finish their 2026 Six Nations campaigns on a high when they face off at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday.
This year’s Championship has been vastly different for these two teams and Italy come into this weekend’s encounter on a high after clinching a historic 23-18 victory over England in Rome in Round Four, while Wales are still winless in this year’s tournament after suffering a 27-17 defeat against Ireland in Dublin.
In fact, that result means Steve Tandy’s troops are now on a 15-match losing streak in the Six Nations which stretches back to 2023 when they last secured a win and that was against the Azzurri (29-17) in Rome.
With such a poor record in the Championship, it’s fair to say Wales will head into this weekend’s clash in a desperate mood and nothing less than a victory over the Azzurri will be good enough for their supporters as they are currently languishing at the bottom of the table.
Although Wales are bringing up the rear in this year’s Six Nations, they have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks.
Their campaign got off to a horrendous start when they suffered huge defeats against England (48-7) at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham and France (54-12) in Cardiff on successive weekends but despite still being winless, they were much more competitive in recent weeks.
In Round Three, Tandy’s troops came agonisingly close to ending their losing streak as they held a 20-5 lead over Scotland during the early stages of the second half, but they lost their way in front of their home fans and the visitors eventually fought back before securing a 26-23 win.
Despite that loss, Wales picked themselves up and held their own for long periods against Ireland before suffering that 12-point defeat in Dublin which extended their woeful form in the Six Nations.
Meanwhile, Italy will come into this encounter with confidence at an all-time high after sealing a 23-18 triumph over England in Rome last week.
That was a historic result as it was the Azzurri’s first-ever win against the Red Rose and follows an impressive 18-15 home victory against Scotland in the opening round.
That result was followed up with another impressive performance against Ireland in Dublin and although they came away with a losing bonus-point after their 20-13 defeat, the Azzurri showed that they are no longer the Six Nations’ whipping boys.
They then headed to Lille, where they came off second best in most facets of play against France who claimed a 33-8 win but Italy showed their class by bouncing back with that memorable triumph against England and will be eager to build on that result by beating Wales to finish their campaign on a high.
Where the game will be won
If Wales want to end their losing streak in the Championship, they simply have to front up in the forward exchanges as the Azzurri have impressed in that department throughout the Six Nations. The scrum battle, in particular, will be huge as that is one facet of play which has been a genuine strength for Gonzalo Quesada’s troops as they have delivered dominant performances in the set-pieces throughout the tournament.
There will be plenty of pressure on Wales at scrum-time as Italy’s starting front-row of hooker Giacomo Nicotera and props Simone Ferrari and Danilo Fischetti have seldom come off second best at the set-piece this year. Wales’ front-row of captain and hooker Dewi Lake as well as the props, Tomas Francis and Rhys Carre have stood up well in the scrums in the Six Nations but they will have to be at their best against the Italians who have been excellent throughout their campaign.
Apart from the scrums, the lineouts and breakdown battles will also be crucial in the grander scheme of things and whoever holds the upper hand in the tight exchanges and provides good, front-foot ball to their backs, should be in control of this match and will subsequently emerge as victors.
Last time they met
What they said
Tandy believes Wales can end their losing run in the Championship and has rewarded the players who were on duty against Ireland in Round Four by naming an unchanged starting XV to face Italy.
“Having an unchanged team, I think it reflects the cohesion and the consistency in the group and the consistency of performance out in Ireland,” he said.
“This week we need to go up another level. We’ve had some really good performances. I think there were parts against France, then we built up into the Scotland game where I thought we were very good.
“Against Ireland we stepped up to the plate physically.
“Now it’s putting it all together and creating our best performance this weekend.”
With Wales winless, Italy are in the rare position of being favorites to clinch victory as they have been the Six Nations’ traditional strugglers.
Replacement back Tommaso Allan believes that could work in their favour in this clash.
“I think that’s a bit of a testament to what we’ve been doing for the last few years. We haven’t really been going in as favourites to many games,” he said.
“They (Wales) have been struggling a little bit, but we know what that means as well. We’ve lived through that for the last 10 years.
“We’re just going to focus on ourselves, like we have been doing for the last many years, and try to control what we can control. Hopefully, we can come out on top.”
Players to watch
If Wales want to finish their Six Nations campaign on a high, then highly rated Bristol Bears speedster Louis Rees-Zammit has to come to the party. The 25-year-old has had some flashes of brilliance in their previous matches but he is yet to produce the goods for a full 80-minutes. Renowned as a brilliant attacking player who is blessed with plenty of pace, Rees-Zammit has to give his side momentum from the back and create try-scoring opportunities for himself and his team-mates. If he manages to do that against the Azzurri, then it could have a bearing on the end result.
After scoring an outstanding individual try against Ireland last week, Wales loosehead prop Rhys Carre is a player who will be closely marked by the visitors. That five-pointer was a momentous one as Carre also scored tries in Wales’ losses against Scotland and France which meant he became only the sixth starting prop in the history of Test rugby to cross the whitewash in three successive matches. Apart from his try-scoring prowess, the 28-year-old will be vital to the home side’s cause in other areas as he will also be expected to be in the thick of the action in the tight exchanges.
Another player who will be expected to play a huge role for the home side is experienced back-rower Aaron Wainwright, who continues at number eight after catching the eye with a fine all-round effort in the defeat against Ireland. The Dragons star is highly rated as he gives his side good momentum as a ball carrier, has a high work-rate on defence and competes ferociously at the breakdown battle. He will have to hit the ground running against Italy if Wales wants to secure that elusive win.
In the Italians’ ranks, the player who will be expected to lead their charge is star inside centre Tommaso Menoncello, who comes into this fixture in red-hot form after delivering a sublime all-round performance against England. The 23-year-old is a handful with the ball in hand as he proved against the Red Rose, where he scored a deserved try and he also set up the match-winning try. Those efforts were rewarded with the official player-of-the-match award and he will be expected to hit the ground running against Wales on Saturday.
Another backline star who will be expected to be crucial for the visitors is chief playmaker Paolo Garbisi, who has caught the eye with some outstanding performances this season. The Toulon fly-half’s excellent playmaking skills make him a genuine attacking threat as he can change the course of a match with a moment of magic. Garbisi has the ability to create space and try-scoring opportunities for his team-mates while his goal-kicking is also of a high standard and his accuracy off the kicking tee could determine this game’s outcome.
Meanwhile, amongst the Azzurri’s forwards, a player who has caught the eye is exciting number eight Lorenzo Cannone, who has come to the fore with outstanding individual displays in all of Italy’s previous Six Nations Tests this year. The 28-year-old is a brilliant ball carrier and adept defender who has shone on either side of the ball throughout the Championship, while he is also a valuable source of possession in the lineouts.
Main head-to-head
There are numerous interesting direct duels set to take place in this fixture but the one to keep an eye on is between Wales’ tearaway Alex Mann and Italy’s counterpart Michele Lamaro. As their respective sides’ blindside flankers, both will be expected to lead the way with powerful ball carries and exceptional defensive efforts.
Mann showed his class in the latter category against Ireland when he made 32 tackles, which is the most tackles ever by a player in a Six Nations Test. Lamaro is no slouch in that department as the Azzurri skipper is also renowned for a high defensive work-rate and he will be keen to match himself against Mann in that area.
While this duel is between these highly rated blindside flankers, both have spent the bulk of their respective careers packing down on the openside flank which means they should also be prominent in the breakdown battle and don’t be surprised if either one of them makes their presence felt in that department by winning a turnover or two.
Prediction
With Wales showing improvement in recent weeks, they should put up a good showing in this fixture as they hope to end their winless streak in the Six Nations and, in doing so, claim their first triumph against the Azzurri since 2023. That is easier said than done though as the visitors are brimming with confidence and are no strangers to winning in Cardiff as they have achieved that feat on both their previous visits to the city in 2024 and 2022. It will be close, but the Azzurri will continue with their upward trajectory. Italy to win by four points.
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Previous results
2025: Italy won 22-15 in Rome
2024: Italy won 24-21 in Cardiff
2023: Wales won 29-17 in Rome
2022: Italy won 22-21 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 48-7 in Rome
2020: Wales won 38-18 in Llanelli
2020: Wales won 42-0 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 26-15 in Rome
The teams
Wales:15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10. Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 James Botham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Ben Carter, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Olly Cracknell, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Blair Murray
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (c), 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 David Odiase, 21 Stephen Varney, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Tommaso Allan
Date: Saturday, March 14
Kick-off: 16:40 GMT
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Christophe Ridley (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU), Eoghan Cross (IRFU)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
FPRO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)