Stormers v All Blacks prediction: Dave Rennie to get ‘answers’ in a comfortable win featuring mouth-watering ‘master versus apprentice’ showdown
All Blacks veteran Beauden Barrett and an inset of Stormers forward Evan Roos.
The inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series is finally here with the All Blacks embarking on their first tour of South Africa in 30 years.
As is tradition, the men from New Zealand kick off their tour against a local team, with the Stormers first on Dave Rennie’s charges’ hit list. This will be the first-ever meeting between the Stormers and All Blacks in what promises to be an epic night at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town.
New Zealand arrive on African soil with a new head coach who has been tasked with getting their Rugby World Cup bid back on track, and so far, the former Wallabies boss has delivered with the All Blacks going three from three in July.
They defeated France, Italy and Ireland, respectively, during the Nations Championship, and whilst the Springboks will be the main challenge for Rennie and his charges in South Africa, they will be wary not to slip up against the United Rugby Championship teams, with the Stormers being one of their biggest threats.
Where the game will be won
Despite being without nine Springboks stars, John Dobson has still managed to name a strong matchday 23 for the historic fixture. Many regular starters from last season feature with a healthy mix of experience, youth and X-factor littered throughout.
That means that Rennie’s men won’t get an easy ride in the Mother City, and that’s precisely what they would be hoping for. The matches against the URC teams are not just an opportunity to get match minutes in preparation for the Boks, but they can provide answers for the coaches on tactics and player selections. It also allows fringe players the opportunity to force their way up the pecking order for the Test matches, and the harder the opposition, the better for the All Blacks.
While Rennie’s men will be the favourites heading into the match, they will know that they will be sternly challenged in multiple facets of the game, particularly up front. The Stormers have a reputation for being an attractive attacking team, but the foundation of their game is one not too dissimilar from the Springboks, with power and set-piece accuracy being paramount.
The URC semi-finalists produced a 91% lineout success rate in the competition, a percentage only bettered by champions Leinster (92%), while they also won more scrum penalties (64) than any other club. Sure, they will be without the services of Zachary Porthen, which is a blow, but in Neethling Fouché, Vernon Matongo, Ntuthuko Mchunu, and Sazi Sandi, they have brutally effective scrummaging props.
“Parity up front is important, or dominance to be fair. It’s going to be a physical game; set-piece is very important,” Beauden Barrett told reporters, and he is right.
The All Blacks have identified the threat; the question is, can they do anything about it? The scrum is a massive weapon for the Stormers, and if they have any hope of clinching a historic result, they will need reward from it.
Barrett is an experienced campaigner and has played against South African clubs many a time before, and his verdict that the All Blacks will need parity up front extends beyond the set-pieces and rightly so.
The Stormers had an astute defence last season and have the ball-carrying threats to really trouble the All Blacks. Being able to stop the men in blue and white hoops before they get momentum will be key, with Evan Roos being the main threat in the forward pack.
What they said
The topic of South African teams leaving Super Rugby was understandably raised again this week with Rennie weighing in.
“I still think it’s a real pity South Africa aren’t part of Super Rugby,” he said after naming his team. “It was pretty special, and I understand why.
“It’s a hell of a lot easier. They’ll go north, fly overnight, wake up there, same time zone. But it was a pretty special part of Super Rugby to come over here and challenge yourself against great sides in tough conditions.”
The head coach has handed veteran playmaker Barrett his first start of the year after he missed the opening three Tests. The 35-year-old is raring for the challenge but is wary not to get ahead of himself.
“I know how excited I am and I’m conscious that I don’t want to overdo it either, like overplay,” he said.
“It’s about containing that and making good decisions because there has been a few weeks between games for me. So there might be a tendency to really rip in and get stuck in, but at the same time it’s about controlling those emotions, those temptations, and just backing myself in the preparation.”
Fellow veteran, Deon Fourie, will mark his comeback from injury against the All Blacks. The soon-to-be 40-year-old has endured a truly torrid run of injuries over the past two years but has the opportunity to tackle the men from Aotearoa again after his heroic efforts in the Rugby World Cup final in 2023.
“I am definitely raring to go, and it’s a great opportunity. I was looking forward to this match since it was announced a year or two ago,” he said earlier in the week.
“Just to represent your club, where I’ve spent almost my entire career, against a Test side like the All Blacks is such a big occasion. To face the Haka is something every little boy dreams of when they start playing rugby.”
Players to watch
Three years ago, Deon Fourie produced arguably the performance of his career – he has an incredible catalogue of top-drawer shifts – when he came off the bench for Bongi Mbonambi in the Rugby World Cup final. The relentless forward makes a timely return from injury to be named on the side of the scrum for the showdown with New Zealand and is bound to wreak havoc. A breakdown master, Fourie is a real workhorse around the park as he proved in that final and remains a seriously strong and athletic ball carrier despite being 39 years old.
New Zealanders might know Stormers captain Ruhan Nel better for his brilliance on the sevens scene, but since making the switch to the 15-aside game, he has become a classy outside centre, a glue-man for the Cape-based team’s backline and leader of the defence. Nel is one of the more experienced campaigners in the squad and will be crucial in leading the defence in particular.
With the set-pieces being crucial in this fixture, the performance of Andre-Hugo Venter will be under the spotlight. The 24-year-old was released by Rassie Erasmus to represent the Stormers in this game, which also serves as an opportunity for him to prove that he can mix it with a top international team after earning his two caps against Portugal and Wales.
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Similarly, the clash is a massive opportunity for All Blacks hookers Samisoni Taukei’aho and Asafo Aumua. Codie Taylor misses the match through injury and is primed for a return ahead of the first Test. It’s plainly obvious that Taylor is Rennie’s first-choice in the number two jersey, but the next in line is less clear with Taukei’aho and Aumua battling it out for the 16 shirt. A big shift against a powerful Stormers pack could go a long way for either man to claim that jersey.
It’s also a huge chance for Rieko Ioane to stamp his mark after being overlooked for the Nations Championship matches. The 29-year-old had a turbulent spell at Leinster, where he struggled to really shine. Ioane fell out of favour with Scott Robertson last year and that hasn’t changed with Rennie taking over. Once a regular starter in the number 13 shirt, Ioane has been named on the wing to face the Stormers – perhaps the position where he has a better chance of getting regular game time.
Rennie’s team is littered with players who have a point to prove and have been given the chance to force their way into the Test team. Ethan Blackadder certainly fits into that category with the Crusaders star earning his first appearance in the black jersey since starting at Ellis Park back in 2024. The 31-year-old was in incredible form at the time but has had a troublesome run of injuries since. He enjoyed a strong run of form during the latter stages of the Super Rugby Pacific season and could be a real weapon for Rennie in the back-row.
Main head-to-head
When a player of Beauden Barrett’s experience and calibre dubs a player ‘the future’, one cannot help but keep an eye on him, and that’s precisely what he said of his opposing number 10, Yaqeen Ahmed. The duo are at completely different points of their careers, with Barrett being the master of the trade, a two-time World Rugby Player of the Year, a World Cup winner and an all-time great of the All Blacks.
At 35 years old, he is on the decline as he isn’t as rapid as he once was, but he still operates at an elite level with his tactical kicking and overall game management. The master will look to flex his outrageous skill-set in Cape Town once again and outfox the Stormers apprentice.
Ahmed makes his Stormers debut against the All Blacks, with the 20-year-old handed the reins after starring for the Junior Boks, the side who defended their World Rugby Junior World Championship. We saw during that tournament just how talented the Wynberg Boys’ High School old boy is. He has all the tricks in the toolbox to be really successful at the highest level. A raw talent, he is a triple-threat – run, kick and pass – fly-half, but also had a real swagger and attitude about him, something that is needed in the position.
We saw the rawness, though, against Zimbabwe when he was red-carded, and what will be crucial is the ability to remain cool and collected when facing the All Blacks. While the battle up front is bound to decide the fixture, there is no more box-office head-to-head than the one in the number 10 jumpers.
Prediction
The All Blacks are comfortable favourites heading into what could be a real banana skin match for Rennie, who has made a plethora of changes for the tour opener. It’s also arguably the club that has the best chance of knocking over the tourists.
Dobson’s charges are bound to wreak havoc over the 80 minutes, and suggestions that the All Blacks will rack up a cricket score are well off the mark. The Stormers will be physical, aggressive and highly motivated to clinch a historic result and have the talent to do it. They have a front-row and scrum capable of winning penalties, power carriers that can get them on the front foot and backs like Ahmed, Imad Khan and Warrick Gelant who can create something out of nothing.
The All Blacks have the players who ticked all of those boxes too, and the major difference is they just have more of them. We can certainly expect a tight first half where the Stormers stay in the fight and go toe-to-toe with the All Blacks but Rennie’s men are bound to pull away in the final quarter in particular.
In the historic first-ever meeting between these two proud teams, we predict that the All Blacks will surge to a comfortable 20-point victory.
The teams
Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Ruhan Nel (c), 12 Jonathan Roche, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Yaqeen Ahmed, 9 Imad Khan, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Hacjivah Dayimani, 6 Deon Fourie, 5 Connor Evans, 4 Adré Smith, 3 Neethling Fouché, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Vernon Matongo
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotzé, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Sazi Sandi, 19 Ruan Ackermann, 20 Keke Morabe, 21 Wandile Mlaba, 22 Dewaldt Duvenage, 23 Wandisile Simelane
All Blacks: 15 Josh Moorby, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Anton Segner, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu (c), 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Pasilo Tosi, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 George Bower
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Siale Lauaki, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Ethan Blackadder, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Caleb Clarke
Date: Saturday, 10 October 2026
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19:10 (local NZDT), 07:10 (UK), 08:10 (France), 08:10 (South Africa), 17:10 (AEDT), 19:10 (New Zealand), 03:10 (Argentina), 15:10 (JST), 02:10 (EDT)
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
Assistant Referees: Luke Pearce (RFU), Damian Schneider (UAR)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
FPRO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
Broadcasters: Sky Sport (New Zealand), Stan Sport / Nine Network (Australia), Sky Sports (United Kingdom & Ireland), SuperSport (South Africa / Africa), RugbyPass TV (USA), plus other territorial partners (WOWOW Japan, Premier Sports various Asian markets, etc.)