Springboks v Japan prediction: No ‘Miracle of Brighton’ repeat as Rassie Erasmus’ troops to hit the ground running

South Africa will get their 2025 Autumn Nations Series campaign underway when they face off against Japan at Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday.

After defending the Rugby Championship title earlier this month, the Springboks will have their tails up and they will be in a confident mood against the Brave Blossoms.

The world champions are firmly entrenched as the top ranked team in World Rugby’s official rankings and they will fancy their chances of continuing with their recent good form against Eddie Jones‘ troops.

Although Japan currently occupy 13th position in global rankings, this a potential banana skin for the Boks although their head coach, Rassie Erasmus, has shown that he is not underestimating his side’s opponents by naming an experienced matchday squad.

The total Test caps in the Springboks starting line-up are 781 and there are a further 182 caps amongst their replacements.

However, this clash is against Japan. These teams have only faced each other on three previous occasions in the international arena and although the Boks registered comfortable victories over the Asian outfit in the last two games between these sides, the Brave Blossoms clinched a shock 34-32 win when the sides met in a 2015 Rugby World Cup pool game in Brighton.

A major difference between that Test and the other two encounters between these sides is the fact that Jones was Japan’s coach when they stunned the Boks in 2015.

Renowned as one of the shrewdest coaches in the international arena, the Australian is sure to have some tricks up his sleeve this weekend as he aims for a repeat of that result from 10 years ago – a game which became known as the “Miracle of Brighton”.

Where the game will be won

Japan are renowned for giving the ball plenty of air and playing the game at a fast pace, and although the Springboks have showed this year that they have the ability to play expansively, don’t expect them to take on the Brave Blossoms with that style of play in this encounter. Don’t be surprised if the world champions revert to what’s worked best for them in most of their previous games with a big emphasis placed on the game’s basics.

That means the forward battle will be huge, especially at set-piece time as that will provide the teams with the bulk of the possession, while kicking – out of hand and at goal – will also be crucial in the grander scheme of things. So, if this Brave Blossoms outfit want to repeat the heroics of their predecessors from 2015, they will have to play out of their skins in the aforementioned departments as the Boks usually dominate those facets of play.

Last time they met

What they said

Erasmus is preparing the Boks for a tough encounter and is wary of Japan, whose rugby has shown great improvement in recent years.

“They are a quality team, and they have a top coach in Eddie Jones, so we have no doubt they’ll throw everything at us,” he said.

“They beat us in 2015, and they showed what a quality outfit they are in the first half of our 2019 Rugby World Cup quarter-final against them, so we are expecting them to come out guns blazing.

“They also lost by only four points against Australia last weekend, which is a testament to the improvement they have been making, so we need to be sharp on attack and defence if we want to get the result.

“Very little separates the top teams in the world, and if you are not on your game both mentally and physically on the day, anything can happen.

“So, we will treat them with the utmost respect, and we also know how important this match will be to set the tone for the rest of our tour.”

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Meanwhile, Jones made no secret that his charges will be hoping to cause another upset against the world champions and called on his troops to try and emulate their 2015 side.

“In terms of the history of Japanese rugby, obviously, 10 years ago was a pretty symbolic game for Japan,” Jones said of the 2015 triumph over South Africa.

“Now Japan, because of that game, get the chance to play such quality Test matches: Australia last week, South Africa this week, Ireland, Wales, Georgia.

“It’s up to this team now to make sure that the legacy of what happened in 2015 is enhanced.

“The players understand the responsibility they have. They enjoy the responsibility. So there’s a chance to show how much we can handle that responsibility.”

Players to watch

With Damian Willemse not in action this weekend, due to a hamstring niggle sustained during a Stormers match, Erasmus has selected excitement machine Cheslin Kolbe at full-back for this fixture. When on song, Kolbe is one of the world’s best attacking players and with more space afforded to him at the back, he should prove a handful with ball in hand. However, with the Boks not expected to be too flashy on attack, it will be interesting to see how he adapts if they opt to play conservatively.

Another player who will be crucial to the Springboks cause is experienced number eight Jasper Wiese, who will be expected to give his side valuable momentum as a ball carrier. Wiese missed a large chunk of this year’s Rugby Championship due to a four-match suspension for foul play and his absence was keenly felt. However, he showed why he is the Boks’ first choice number eight with some barnstorming displays during the latter stages of that tournament and will be keen to continue in that vein against Japan.

Also keep an eye on young tighthead prop Zachary Porthen, who is set to become the youngest front-row to make his Test debut for the Springboks in the professional era when he takes to the field in this clash. Porthen has impressed at club level for the Stormers this year, especially his physicality as a ball carrier where he has caught the eye with some deft touches. However, he will be judged on how he performs in the execution of his core duties and if he can hold his own in the scrums, his selection will be justified.

At the age of 37, Michael Leitch is in the twilight of his career but he showed against the Wallabies last week that he is still a vital cog in the Japanese machine and he will be crucial to the cause against the Boks. Solid as a ball carrier and on defence, while also a vital source of lineout possession, the Brave Blossoms will rely heavily on him to provide direction in this clash while his leadership will also be crucial as the team’s captain.

While Leitch’s efforts will be vital for Japan, he will not be able to take the fight to the world champions on his own and another player who will have an important role to play is his back-row partner Ben Gunter. The 28-year-old came to the fore with a polished performance either side of the ball against Australia and was rewarded with a well-taken try for his efforts. He will be hoping to continue where he left off in that clash on Saturday.

If the Brave Blossoms want to run the world champions close, a lot will depend on the all-round performance of their chief playmaker Lee Seung-sin. The 24-year-old is an accurate goal-kicker and will be expected to keep the scoreboard ticking while his playmaking skills will also have to unlock South Africa’s defence. He will also have defend well himself as he can expect several of the Boks’ big ball carriers to run in his channel.

Prediction

Although South Africa will be wary of Japan, they will have too much firepower for their opponents and we expect them to deliver a dominant performance. The Brave Blossoms should be competitive during the early stages but the Boks will take control of proceedings and eventually seal a comfortable win. Springboks to win by 30 points.

Previous results

2019: South Africa won 26-3 in Tokyo (RWC quarter-final)
2019: South Africa won 41-7 in Kumagaya
2015: Japan won 34-32 in Brighton (RWC pool match)

The teams

South Africa: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Zachary Porthen, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok

Japan: 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki, 14 Kippei Ishida, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Charlie Lawrence, 11 Tomoki Osada, 10 Lee Seung-sin, 9 Shinobu Fujiwara, 8 Michael Leitch (c), 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 6 Ben Gunter, 5 Warner Dearns, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 2 Kenji Sato, 1 Kenta Kobayashi
Replacements: 16 Shodai Hirao, 17 Ryosuke Iwaihara, 18 Keijiro Tamefusa, 19 Tyler Paul, 20 Faulua Makisi, 21 Kenta Fukuda, 22 Sam Greene, 23 Tiennan Costley

Date: Saturday, November 1
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London
Kick-off: 16:10 GMT (18:10 SAST)
Referee: Eoghan Cross (IRFU)
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe (NZR), Adam Leal (RFU)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
FPRO: Tual Trainini (FFR)

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