England v Australia prediction: Steve Borthwick’s Bomb Squad to extinguish Wallabies threat
Tommy Freeman and Joseph Suaalii collide in midfield.
There is a lot to live up to for England and the Wallabies this Saturday after last year’s absolute thriller at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham.
That 42-37 victory for Australia was a thrill-a-minute clash as the underdog visitors got the job done late on thanks to Max Jorgensen’s try, capping a fine debut from Joseph Suaalii.
England will therefore be hunting revenge as they look to get their Autumn Nations Series campaign off to a winning start at home against a disrupted Australia outfit. That is because Len Ikitau, Tom Hooper and James O’Connor are all unavailable due to this international falling outside of the World Rugby Reg.9 window.
Those absences and home field advantage have contributed to England coming into this Test as favourites but, as always, it will be fascinating to see how the northern hemisphere fares coming in cold against those from the south who have had Rugby Championship – and in Australia’s case a further game against Japan – in their locker.
The Wallabies also have the added incentive of giving coach Joe Schmidt a positive send-off on this tour as he enters the final matches of a hugely successful tenure before handing the baton to Les Kiss. The New Zealander has helped pull Australia back from the brink both on and off the field and will no doubt want to finish strong.
How he would have loved to have had that aforementioned trio available to him this weekend as England, on paper, come into this match looking the stronger. But that was the case 12 months ago too so ruling out the Wallabies would be foolish despite the fresh hosts holding an edge in some crucial areas, especially the bench.
Where the game will be won
It has just been mentioned and those replacements could play a significant role in the second period, with England boasting star quality right through from 16 to 23. Expect Luke Cowan-Dickie, who is celebrating his 50th cap, Ellis Genge and Will Stuart to provide serious impact in the front-row while Tom Curry is an international stalwart coming on at flanker. Henry Pollock will also add bite all over the field while Ben Spencer and Fin Smith could easily be starters.
Elsewhere, the aerial game could be pivotal in how this one plays out as England look to combat the threat Suaalii poses by stacking their side with the likes of Tommy Freeman, Tom Roebuck, Freddie Steward and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, all strong in the air, while half-backs George Ford and Alex Mitchell will no doubt be pinpoint with their kicking.
Last time they met
What they said
England head coach Steve Borthwick was brimming with excitement when discussing their opening November clash and knows they will have to be at their best on Saturday.
“We are excited to begin our Quilter Nations Series campaign against Australia and to test ourselves against a strong, in-form side,” he said when naming his line-up.
“Australia have had four months together, so it’ll be a great challenge for us first up. We’ve worked hard with the time we’ve had, and the players can’t wait to play in front of a passionate home crowd.
“It’s another opportunity for us to take a step forward as a team.”
Ranked: The 11 players who matter most in this year’s Autumn Nations Series
Meanwhile, Wallabies boss Schmidt has had to balance coming off a tough Rugby Championship and the unavailability of some players in his preparation for this meeting.
“The group travelled well to London earlier in the week and have had a couple of trainings ahead of this weekend’s Test,” he said.
“The coaches have tried to balance this year’s tough schedule in terms of Test matches and travel, so it was great to freshen a few players up last week and we hope that allows the group to be really competitive on Saturday.”
Players to watch
There was a good amount of focus leading up to the autumn over whether Borthwick would stick with George Ford or recall Fin Smith to the number 10 shirt after touring with the British and Irish Lions. As many expected it was the former who was retained after an outstanding summer tour and early-season start for Sale Sharks.
Ford has gone up another level in the past 12 months and is now an incredible leader and tactician, proving to be a coach’s dream in that he can execute the correct decision time and again. His performances in the summer in a young and inexperienced side illustrated his value to Borthwick and it’s no surprise he’s kept his spot.
Alongside Ford there will also be plenty of eyes on Tommy Freeman as he moves in one position to outside centre in a bold move from Borthwick, especially with Ollie Lawrence and Henry Slade in impressive form for their respective clubs. Freeman is firing too though and it will be interesting to see how he goes at number 13.
For Australia a now fully fit Rob Valetini is a significant boost to their arsenal, not least with Hooper unavailable for this weekend’s game. Valetini is one of the most destructive players around when on song and will look to punch holes in England’s defence alongside back-row colleagues Fraser McReight and Harry Wilson.
Further back and one cannot overlook the talent that is Joseph Suaalii. A player who hit the ground running at Test level this time last year, he has proven a remarkable acquisition from Rugby Australia and is very much the key to the Wallabies building towards becoming a genuine contender for their home World Cup in 2027.
Suaalii’s ability to draw in defenders and offload in an instant, fend and dominate the skies are just three attributes that make him a marked player by every rival.
Prediction
The general feeling is that England will be too strong, despite there being plenty of talent on show right through this Wallabies team. Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou could have a big say in the tight exchanges early on but, over the course of 80 minutes, it feels like Borthwick’s men will come out on top. England by seven.
Previous results
2024: Australia won 42-37 in London
2022: England won 21-17 in Sydney
2022: England won 25-17 in Brisbane
2022: Australia won 30-28 in Perth
2021: England won 32-15 in London
2019: England won 40-16 in Oita
2018: England won 37-18 in London
2017: England won 30-6 in London
2016: England won 37-21 in London
2016: England won 44-40 in Sydney
2016: England won 23-7 in Melbourne
The teams
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George, 1 Fin Baxter
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 Fin Smith
Australia: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Harry Potter, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Hamish Stewart, 23 Filipo Daugunu
Date: Saturday, November 1
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Twickenham
Kick-off: 15:10 GMT
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (GRU)
Assistant Referees: James Doleman (NZR), Craig Evans (WRU)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
READ MORE: Autumn Nations Series: Team news, kick-off times, venues and how to watch week one
