Rugby World Cup draw: Five takeaways as Ireland handed ‘best opportunity’ to end hoodoo amid another ‘lopsided’ tournament benefiting England
Ireland players celebrate and England head coach Steve Borthwick.
Following the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, which was announced on Wednesday, we have picked out our five takeaways.
Pointless pools
You do rather question World Rugby’s decision-making sometimes. In previous editions when it’s been four pools of five teams, with the top two going through to the quarter-finals, there was a sense of jeopardy. In 2015, there was the drama of England going out of their home tournament at the group stage while in 2023, the Wallabies were the biggest nation that failed to make it to the knockout rounds.
Scotland are another big side that have regularly succumbed early on but, in a move which is seemingly designed to make sure all the main contenders make it through the pools, an early upset appears impossible.
The governing body have decided to expand the World Cup to 24 teams, opting for six pools of four and an extra knockout round – the last-16. As a result, the top country from each group, as well as the four best third placed sides, will make it through to the next phase of the tournament. In fairness, it is a great opportunity for the so-called minnows, but we sincerely hope it does not end in a damp squib.
While there will be fascinating match-ups, such as the Wallabies’ clash with the All Blacks and Ireland’s encounter with Scotland, it means very little in terms of qualification from the group. It will have ramifications later down the line but the change in structure could result in a rather disappointing pool stage.
Behemoths to clash early
World Rugby were criticised ahead of the 2023 World Cup for holding the draw too early, resulting in a lopsided tournament when it was eventually held.
They listened and did it slightly later this time around, but the convoluted nature of the draw will potentially pit the current one and two ranked teams – the Springboks and All Blacks – against each other in the quarter-finals.
Should the two giants of the sport win their groups as expected and then get through their round-of-16 matches – again they will be clear favourites in their respective ties – they will collide in the last-eight. It will obviously be a mouth-watering encounter and one which will set the tournament alight but you doubt that either Rassie Erasmus or Scott Robertson will be best pleased. What will potentially make it worse is that whoever gets through that will likely have to face France in the semi-finals.
You never know, there could be a change in the pecking order, as happened in the build-up to the previous World Cup. The Springboks, who have a number of players the wrong side of 30, could decline and the All Blacks may continue to stutter, while on the other side of the draw, England and Argentina are both on an upward trajectory and Ireland may re-find their former brilliance. However, we rather suspect that South Africa and New Zealand will, at the very least, remain rather close to the top of the rankings over the next two years.
Best opportunity for Ireland
Andy Farrell’s men went into the last World Cup with genuine hopes of winning the whole thing but, after their latest quarter-final exit – their eighth in 10 tournaments – they are now thinking that just a semi would be nice. And that may well be achieved with how the draw has panned out.
Providing it goes to plan, they will miss the All Blacks, Springboks and France until the final with them on the other side of the draw if they win their respective groups. Ireland do have to face Scotland in their pool but it is a country they have dominated over the past few years.
They are therefore seeded to face Argentina in the quarter-finals – a team that are on the rise and of course ended their 2015 World Cup challenge – but surely 2027 will be the tournament Ireland finally make it to the last-four.
England the happiest
As was the case in 2023, when England only had to beat Argentina and Fiji to reach the semi-final, they have been handed a generous route through. Getting to the finals of World Cups is never easy but Steve Borthwick, as it stands, will be rather happy with how the draw has turned out. They are currently seeded to have the challenge of hosts Australia in the quarter-finals. Before that England are scheduled to face Italy – probably one of the tougher round-of-16 ties for the sport’s giants – but they are certainly match-ups Borthwick would take heading towards a semi-final.
Ireland or Argentina would then likely lie in wait for a place in the showpiece event should they get through those encounters. It is a great opportunity for all three but, for the Red Rose, they are a relatively young side on the rise who could well be the team to beat from that section. Either way, they would be delighted to miss out on facing the All Blacks, Springboks or France before the final, albeit that goes for Australia, Ireland and Argentina too.
How the ‘minnows’ will fare
As mentioned, the four best third placed countries will qualify for the last-16 which provides an excellent chance for the lower-ranked nations to get the taste of World Cup knockout rugby for the first time. With some of the groups, the top two already seem sewn up, with the likes of New Zealand and Australia, Argentina and Fiji, and Ireland and Scotland from Pools A, C and D, respectively, almost certainties to take those slots.
In the others, Italy will be heavy favourites to join South Africa, although Georgia will have something to say about that, while Wales would like to think they will improve enough to dispatch Tonga and Zimbabwe. Pool E, which contains Japan, USA and Samoa alongside France, could be a real humdinger, however.
Bonus-points will also be critical for those finishing in third place, which makes it tougher for Portugal and Uruguay in Pool D and Chile and Hong Kong China in Pool A, who have genuine heavyweights alongside them in Ireland, Scotland, All Blacks and Wallabies. We’re not necessarily sold on World Rugby’s decision to expand the tournament, but it should create some fantastic stories at the very least.