Rugby Championship: Five bold predictions as Springboks to end Eden Park streak after ‘unconvincing’ All Blacks ‘ran scared’ for 12 years
Springboks with the Freedom Cup after beating the All Blacks in 2024, and Wallabies fly-half James O'Connor.
Following the July Tests and the British and Irish Lions series in Australia, attention turns to the Rugby Championship where the Springboks will be looking to defend their title,
Ahead of what is bound to be another thrilling competition, we look at potentially unlikely scenarios that could well come to pass as the tournament develops.
Springboks to win at Eden Park
After 50 unbeaten matches and 31 years, we think the All Blacks’ run at the famous old ground will come to an end when the back-to-back world champions visit in September. It has become an impregnable fortress for opposition teams but it must be breached at some point and Rassie Erasmus’ men are the ones to do it.
In truth, it feels like New Zealand have been running scared of their great rivals for some time with 2013 being the last time they faced each other at the Auckland stadium, but NZR have finally relented and, as a result, have created the most eagerly anticipated clash of the year. In fact, it could well be the biggest event between the World Cups given that the British and Irish Lions’ tour to Australia unfortunately turned out to be a rather underwhelming affair.
There is one big warning for the Springboks, though. They visited Auckland in 2023 to much fanfare – the match taking place at Mount Smart Stadium rather than Eden Park – but they were absolutely destroyed by Ian Foster’s men. We very much think the September 6 encounter will be different, however. You get the sense that this is the big target for Erasmus this year and, with the All Blacks still not quite convincing under Scott Robertson, South Africa will end New Zealand’s remarkable streak.
Argentina to finish above the All Blacks
Probably the boldest of bold calls, especially given Los Pumas’ continued inconsistency and their shoddy 2-0 series defeat to a second-string England in July but, as the British and Irish Lions match showed, they can rise to the occasion and beat the best teams in the world.
Last year, they achieved a remarkable feat by overcoming the Wallabies, All Blacks and Springboks in the Rugby Championship to finish just two points behind Robertson’s side, but this time they could well usurp New Zealand. Oddly, Argentina’s three victories over the All Blacks have come either on neutral territory or away from home, but they will relish having the three-time world champions first-up in South America this season.
Some of their top players were given a well-earned rest in the mid-year series and the likes of Marcos Kremer, Joel Sclavi, Tomas Albornoz, Santiago Chocobares and Juan Cruz Mallia will bolster the 23. It is an impressive set of names and will give them that extra firepower which they hope will propel them to at least one victory over the All Blacks. If Felipe Contepomi’s men can make it back-to-back triumphs then that will set them up very nicely for the rest of the competition where they should finish above New Zealand.
Simon Parker to become All Blacks’ first choice six
One thing poor defeats and performances can do is open the door for other players and Parker very much has an opportunity to put himself in the mix for the blindside flanker spot. The rookie could well get a chance in Argentina but, either way, by the end of the tournament the 25-year-old should be seen as the answer to their problems at six.
Tupou Vaa’i took on the role for the first two Tests against France, with only injury preventing him from taking to the field in the first, and he did a very fine job. However, it did also show Robertson’s complete lack of trust in Samipeni Finau, who also dropped behind Parker in the Chiefs pecking order during the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season.
Had it not been for injury, the rookie probably would have been involved in July, which suggests that the All Blacks management rate him highly. Parker is your modern day archetypal blindside who at almost two metres tall adds another jumper in the lineout, while he hits hard, carries well and has a tremendous engine which gets him around the field. He is very much one to watch in the Rugby Championship.
Every Springboks player in the squad to feature
While we expect South Africa to go full bore in New Zealand for that double header, the other games offer a chance to rotate significantly, just like they did in the Rugby Championship last year.
The Wallabies may have made some strides forwards and look at least a couple of levels above the team that were dominated at home by the Springboks in the 2024 tournament, but that should not deter Erasmus in 2025 in the opening two matches.
After facing the All Blacks, the Boks then take on Argentina home and (sort of) away – it’s at Twickenham – to finish the competition and, again, they could have an opportunity to experiment. They were stung in Santiago del Estero last year, going down by a point in their only loss on their way to the title, but the South Africans have the depth to rotate and still win comfortably.
Nico Janse van Rensburg was the only non-injured member of the 2024 squad to not get a game, so we reckon that in 2025 the head coach will look to go one better and give everyone an opportunity over the next six matches.
James O’Connor to have glorious match-winning moment
Despite receiving a call-up to the Wallabies squad following Noah Lolesio’s injury, Joe Schmidt decided to omit him from the 23 for the three British and Irish Lions Tests with Tom Lynagh and Ben Donaldson the preferred number 10s.
Lynagh suffered a concussion in that third match against the Lions, however, and has duly been ruled out of the Springboks double header, which has logically moved O’Connor up the pecking order. Of course, Schmidt, aware that a home Rugby World Cup is in two years’ time, may want to give experience to the younger Tane Edmed, but the 35-year-old remains the ideal bench option.
It was a role he fulfilled with aplomb for the title-winning Crusaders in Super Rugby Pacific, which included a match-winning penalty over their arch-rivals Blues, and it would be a wonderful story if he could do it in the gold of Australia.
Quade Cooper made a dramatic return to the Wallabies in 2021, with his last-minute three-pointer snatching the win over the Springboks, two years after South Africa lifted the Webb Ellis Cup. Fast-forward four years and another Aussie fly-half has emerged from the international wilderness and should be in the 23 to face the Boks. It couldn’t happen again could it?