Italy v England prediction: Steve Borthwick’s ‘huge risk’ to pay off as visitors to ‘douse the flames’ with victory despite Azzurri’s shot at ‘rugby history’
Nacho Brex (left) and Tommy Freeman (right) will play big roles for their sides this weekend when Italy face England
Italy welcome Steve Borthwick’s strugglers to Rome this weekend with the prospect of a first Azzurri win over England a genuine possibility.
No Italian coach has ever tasted victory over the English in any of the 32 previous meetings between the sides, with this weekend’s visitors notching a combined 1,271 points to Italy’s 404 in this fixture, but the gap is very much closing between them.
This Six Nations has again been a genuine step forward for the Azzurri, who were once considered the whipping boys of the competition. Their opening round victory over Scotland was far from the giant-killing it would have been a few years ago, with Gonzalo Quesada’s side full value for the win in that Rome monsoon, and they can certainly feel unlucky to have not been two from two at the start of the Championship after being edged out against Ireland. Their defeat to France was a touch more comprehensive, but again they were far more competitive than they have been in previous years against Les Bleus and it took an explosion from the bench to finally squash Italy’s fight.
Italy have never been judged on results, and even in this Six Nations, you should look at their performances. The scrum has arguably been the best in the Championship thus far, their work up-front has again been solid and their lightning-quick backline is playing some delicious attacking rugby, and they will certainly bring that sort of intent this weekend with rugby history on the line.
England, on the other hand, have seemingly fallen off a cliff compared to even a fortnight ago, in an alarming shift in performance. Borthwick‘s side came into this year’s Championship dreaming of a first title since 2020, but have already seen their hopes go up in smoke after back-to-back defeats to Scotland and Ireland. The results will undoubtedly hurt the head coach, but it’s also the manner in which they came.
Borthwick’s side were simply well-beaten on both occasions by their respective oppositions. They dominated both territory and possession in both outings, but yet came away with a combined 41 points across the two Tests. To put that into perspective, they scored 48 against Wales alone in round one.
Around that, their defence was systematically torn apart as well. Across both Tests, England conceded a combined 73 points, which surpassed the 68 they conceded across the four Autumn Nations Series Tests back in November, while missing 53 tackles along the way.
These defeats have left Borthwick wielding the axe ahead of their visit to Rome, with a record nine changes made to his starting XV alone, but as mentioned above, Italy are no pushover anymore. Borthwick has taken a huge risk, but will it pay off?
Where the game will be won
This Test will likely have two very different yet pivotal battlegrounds. The scrum and the sides’ attacking style.
Italy have been utterly barbaric when it comes to scrum time this Championship, quickly making it their key weapon. The combination of Danilo Fischetti, Giacomo Nicotera and Simone Ferrari were unrelenting in their efforts against Scotland and Ireland, besting seasoned British and Irish Lions Test players at every turn and notably sending both Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong into orbit, while also matching a previously dominant French scrum as well. Italy’s scrum is incredibly attack-minded, with Fischetti and Ferrari looking to drive as soon as the ball comes in, but their ability to both remain square and keep their shape in the process is what gets them the rewards.
But, England’s scrum is also flying right now, arguably the only true positive out of their Six Nations campaign to date if truth be told. Ellis Genge and Joe Heyes have quickly got themselves on the same page and become ultra-attacking scrummagers, but it’s not quite the outright dominance of the Azzurri scrum. Both props like to bide their time and hold their shape, but when the time comes and a small gap appears, they snap through and crank up the pressure. It’s technical excellence, both individually and collectively, and it has made England’s scrum a major weapon.
Crucially, both sides have turned their scrums into a proper platform for the rest of their gameplan. Their ability to milk penalties from the scrum quickly gets them footholds into Test matches, and quickly too. That in turn brings their respective attacks into the fold, which will also be a major battleground this weekend.
Italy’s attack isn’t the joue joue of France, but the foundations are based around quick ball. The Azzurri are always looking to keep the play alive with offloads, either before contact or on the floor, while they also like to get the scrum-half playing away almost instantaneously, which then gets Garbisi that time in slightly more broken field to pull the strings. Around that, a lot of their play is based on strike plays and linebreaks. The centre duo of Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex, reunited this weekend, are at the beating heart of these efforts with their ability to float between positions seeing them pop up in different spaces and cause chaos ball-in-hand. That then sees flying wingers Monty Ioane and Louis Lynagh given proper space and time on the ball to make things happen. There’s nothing too flamboyant about the Italy attack, but it’s gorgeously intricate.
England’s own attack has failed to fire this Championship, but the backline changes Borthwick has made suggest a new style will come to play in Rome. Fin Smith is more of a ball-in-hand 10 than George Ford, and that should see England in turn play a more running-based style rather than the kicking game they have done so far. That also suits new attack coach Lee Blackett’s system more, as Smith likes to put his backline just a touch wider than where they would usually be and therefore give them that little bit of extra space. Around that, the introduction of Seb Atkinson at 12 and Tommy Freeman at 13 will add some serious punch into midfield that was missing against Ireland, while Cadan Murley also brings electric pace out wide. Tom Roebuck and Elliot Daly are also tidy in the air, which could keep the kicking game alive should Smith want to go to the air.
Last time they met
What they said
Speaking ahead of the Test, Quesada downplayed England’s recent results and detailed how he is expecting the very best version of them to turn up this weekend.
“We shouldn’t look at the results of recent matches, because they do so many important things on the pitch,” he said. “They’re the ones who win the most free-kicks from the scrum and the ones who run the most yards with the ball, they’re the best at dominating tackles, they’re the ones who slow the ball down the most in the ruck, and they’re also the ones who are best at getting it out quickly when they have possession: they do so many things well, even if they haven’t won.
“We’re aware of their strength, and they’re coming to Italy to show who they really are, so we’re preparing for the match without over-analysing past results.
“I expect a game with a lot of possession and less footwork than England’s recent outings. They’ll mainly kick from the base because Ben Spencer has a great foot, but after the initial 30-40 metres, they’ll play a lot with Fin Smith and will attack us a lot by hand.
“And we know they’ll use the drive a lot: last year we conceded three tries from mauls, so we need to be very prepared,” concluded the Italian coach.
Counterpart Borthwick is also very aware of the danger Italy pose his side this weekend, but called for his side to deliver in Rome.
“We’re expecting a big test in Rome and it’s one the players are really looking forward to,” said Borthwick.
“We know the challenge Italy will bring at the Stadio Olimpico, and we’ve selected a team we believe will deliver the level of performance we’re striving for.”
Ben Earl will also win his 50th Test cap this weekend, and Borthwick was full of praise for the back-rower.
“He’s an important leader within this group, someone who drives standards and brings energy every day,” he said. “It’s a wonderful achievement and one he should be very proud of.”
Players to watch
Italy’s attack fires when Tommaso Menoncello gets his hands on the ball, and he will likely be a danger man for the Azzurri once again. The centre is the all-round package, possessing that rare blend of genuine pace, power and skill, and that makes him such a unique threat in this side. He also thrives in strike plays, where he can time his run and burst through space to teleport his side up the pitch. Menoncello will certainly cause England lots of problems this weekend.
Paolo Garbisi is again positioning himself as Italy’s chief playmaker, and a lot of the play will come through him again this weekend. His desire to play wide certainly suits this Italian backline, but as mentioned above it’s controlled, it’s measured and it’s clever; which was potentially missing in his game a few years ago. Garbisi has really matured as Italy have risen up the Six Nations pecking order, and another good game against England will help his team take another big step forward.
The back-row combination of Manuel Zuliani and Michele Lamaro will also look to do some damage against their English counterparts. Both men are expert operators in the tight spaces and particularly on the jackal, and would have seen the blueprint for their success in Ireland’s Twickenham win. Around that, they both enjoy the defensive side of the game and have been among Italy’s leading enforcers this Championship, and will again need to step up to the plate.
Borthwick has put a lot of faith in Fin Smith this weekend, and the Northampton Saint will be out to repay that. His different attacking approach could fully unlock England’s potential ball-in-hand, and while he does have new combinations around him, should steer the ship well. This is also a huge chance for him to retake the 10 shirt after a frustrating few months at Test level, and if he can drive England to victory, could make it his own once more.
Want more from Planet Rugby? Add us as a preferred source on Google to your favourites list for world-class coverage you can trust.
Ben Earl has also come through this Six Nations with good credit in difficult circumstances, and will again be expected to lead from the front in Rome. He again seems to be England’s primary ball-carrying option within the pack, but that is a role he relishes with his desire to get as many touches of the ball as he can in either the tight exchanges or out in broken field. With the threat of the aforementioned Zuliani and Lamaro, his breakdown work needs to be spot on.
Joe Heyes has also been a bright spark in an otherwise tough campaign, even aside from his work in the scrum. He just seems to get better and better with each passing Test, and is starting to really make that number three shirt his own as a result. Heyes always seems to be in the thick of the action on both sides of the ball, and will again need to front up to neutralise the Italian pack.
Main head-to-head
There are some scintillating match-ups across the park, but it’s hard to overlook the battle between Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommy Freeman at 13.
Brex’s form at Test level has been nothing short of glorious for the past few years now, and he plays such a crucial role in this Italian backline, to the point where you argue they beat Ireland and potentially even France if he’s in the side.
In a similar way to Menoncello, his ability to float between 12 and 13 just sees him pop up in different spaces across the pitch and allows him to make consistent inroads through the opposition line as a result. Around that, when he does make a break, his intelligence to look for support just means Italy can convert their chances, which again was really lacking in their game a few years ago.
His work in defence is often overlooked, largely due to his attacking quality, but that is also a crucial part of his game and will again come to the fore against England.
Freeman is still fairly new to life in midfield, but his impact is clear for all to see. His punch in that channel was a major part of their win against Wales, and he gave it a pretty good go against Scotland too. The Northampton man has always been given the freedom to come off his wing and look for work, but shifting him into 13 just means he can consistently get the ball in those spaces he likes to play in.
The way England use him is really clever, and arguably more in the mould of a rugby league centre than anything else. On any strike play, Freeman likes to start wide and then cut back against the grain, adding some strike into the play as a result.
This is also arguably the biggest test of his midfield credentials, and if he can pass it could make 13 his home for the foreseeable future.
Prediction
There’s a lot on the line for both sides this weekend. Italy face the very real prospect of downing one of Test rugby’s heavyweights, and with that, well and truly announce themselves as a force to be reckoned with at the top table of the global game, while prompting some potentially existential questions over the Borthwick regime, which seemed preposterous before the Championship started. A win for England, however, will douse the flames engulfing them and put them back on course.
In the here and now, the second scenario seems the more likely one.
Yes, England are in a tough spot, but they should head to Rome as favourites. The changes Borthwick has made suggest they will bring a slightly different attacking mindset with them, driven by that absorbing centre battle, while Smith also likes to play more ball-in-hand too. England’s problems have also come from poor starts, but the introduction of 182 Test caps in the form of Daly and Jamie George will give them a touch more experience from the get-go.
For the Azzurri, though, this again feels like a Test where the result doesn’t matter in the wider scheme of things. Only once in the past 10 meetings between the sides have Italy been within a score of winning, coincidentally in England’s last visit to Rome, but if Italy can replicate the performances they have put in across the Six Nations this weekend, they will certainly be within touching distance.
Italy will give England a real run for their money, don’t think this is just the arrogant English thinking it’ll be a walk in the park, but the visitors should come away with the spoils. England by 5.
Previous results
2025: England won 47-24 in London
2024: England won 27-24 in Rome
2023: England won 31-14 in London
2022: England won 33-0 in Rome
2021: England won 41-18 in London
2020: England won 34-5 in Rome
2019: England won 37-0 in Newcastle
2019: England won 57-14 in London
The teams
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (c), 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 18 Federico Ruzza, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Tommaso Allan
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Ben Spencer, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith
Date: Saturday, March 7
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Kick-off: 17:40 local time (16:40 GMT)
Referee: Luc Ramos (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Pierre Brousset (FFR), Sam Grove-White (SCO)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
FPRO: Ben Whitehouse (WRU)
TV: ITV, Virgin Media, TF1, SuperSport, Sky Italia, Sky NZ, Stan Sports, Peacock
