Christy Doran: The gap between Australia and New Zealand is real – and there’s three huge areas of concern
Queenslands Reds back-rower Harry Wilson and an inset of Brumbies' hooker Billy Pollard.
Everyone wants Australia’s Super Rugby teams to be closing the gap with their trans-Tasman rivals, but the Super Rugby standings tell the real story.
“The table is fairly accurate,” Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham said on Saturday following his side’s ugly 45-12 defeat to competition favourites, the Hurricanes.
A killer for Super Rugby Pacific
Larkham is right. With five rounds left, it’s an all-New Zealand top four – and there’s plenty of daylight between the top few sides and Australia’s four teams.
That’s a killer for the competition because no Australian team has ever won a knockout match in New Zealand.
Nor does that look like changing this year either.
It’s not just the table that tells the story, but the manner of the victories from New Zealand’s teams too.
The Australian sides largely lost the set-piece battle and they also had little impact at the breakdown.
That’s a theme familiar to Australians because their trans-Tasman opponents have often won the physicality battle, especially at the pointy end of seasons when the days get shorter and cooler.
Joe Schmidt and his coaching staff would have noticed, too.
The Wallabies’ brains trust tried to stay out of the public limelight across the weekend, but the coaching team was in Christchurch for the event.
They would have been pleased by the never-say-die attitude of the Reds and some of the kicking from the Waratahs on Friday night, but there were some otherwise gaping holes and players who struggled in front of the packed crowds.
Set-piece struggles kill chances of upsets
Last Wednesday, Rugby Australia CEO Phil Waugh made mention of the close head-to-head battle with New Zealand this year and said it was “vital” they keep it that way.
Unfortunately, they didn’t – with New Zealand’s Super Rugby sides winning all three trans-Tasman fixtures.
The defeats saw New Zealand move from an 8-7 lead to 11-7.
While some of the results got ugly, Australia’s sides were actually in all three contests, including the Brumbies who managed to strike first in the second half against the Hurricanes to cut the deficit to 19-5.
But one area hurt Australia’s hopes of winning more than most: the lineout.
In total, Australia’s three sides lost 11 lineouts to one.
It particularly hurt the Waratahs early in the second half, while Billy Pollard struggled all afternoon as the Hurricanes continually got up in front in the first half to hurt the Brumbies’ efforts of getting a foothold into the match.
Even the Reds, who have two Test hookers, struggled in the second half, with the Blues’ all-All Blacks pair of Sam Darry and Patrick Tuipulotu regularly getting up at the front of the lineout to pick off Matt Faessler.
While the respective hookers copped plenty of blame, the struggles also highlighted the Reds’ issues in the second-row where Seru Uru has had to cover the absence of Josh Canham.
Super Round HAS to stay in Christchurch
Cam Roigard said it best in the lead-up to his side’s massive win over the Brumbies, saying Christchurch “had put Melbourne to shame” in turning out for the event.
He wasn’t wrong.
After three humdrum years in Melbourne, where rugby was drowned out in a massively AFL-obsessed city, Super Rugby rediscovered its voice and presence in Christchurch.
But are we surprised? Not one bit.
After all, the Crusaders have dominated Super Rugby since the competition’s inception in 1996. They’re also the defending champions.
It wasn’t just locals that enjoyed the occasion either, with Christchurch’s 25,000-seat One NZ Stadium sold out on all three days.
Indeed, everywhere you turned, you saw jerseys of every variety in the city.
It also made rugby fans proud to be supporters of Super Rugby.
Even South African fans were spotted, with a couple of Sharks supporters turning up.
While Christchurch tourism helped fund the event, the tournament was such a success that everyone, including Super Rugby and Union bosses, were saying the event has to return to the city next year.
Those conversations will ramp up over the next month.
10 conundrum
Schmidt will feel he has got some selection headaches ahead of him, but the issues at fly-half aren’t going away for Australian rugby – and they’re not being helped by injuries to the Reds’ Test duo Carter Gordon and Tom Lynagh.
While there’s still more than a month of action to go before the finals, the fact is that only Ben Donaldson, who fell out of favour with Schmidt last year, is the only No.10 genuinely knocking on the door for a return to the Wallabies.
But whether he’s done enough to return to the Test environment could well depend on the next month of action, particularly if the Force miss the finals again. It’s a big match against the Waratahs on Friday in Sydney.
Gordon, who isn’t kicking for goal or touch, has had a stop-start return to Super Rugby and is likely to miss the next fortnight. He will however be in the Wallabies’ squad in July following the investment from Rugby Australia last October to bring him back to Super Rugby.
Lynagh has barely played since wearing the No.10 jersey in all three Tests against the Lions last winter, with the 23-year-old playing just twice since September.
The momentum behind Declan Meredith’s campaign has stopped abruptly too, with the 26-year-old struggling over the past fortnight after being singled out by Schmidt as a player who was putting himself in the mix for a national call-up.
Even Tane Edmed, who has been stuck behind Meredith after moving to Canberra, has struggled to really get going too.
It’s why many will still think Noah Lolesio should still be in the mix for a Test call-up despite playing Japanese second division rugby.
James O’Connor, too, hasn’t given up hope of playing for the Wallabies, but it’s unlikely he will be called up in July.
Captain’s timely reminder
The Wallabies are never picked in February or March, but Harry Wilson made a statement on Saturday against the Blues.
The incumbent Wallabies captain has always been a baller, but many, including in the national hierarchy, have questioned whether he does enough to bend the line and make a dent on the international scene.
On Friday, he helped put some of those concerns as he once again delivered against a New Zealand opponent.
Wilson was superb against the Blues, making 16 carries and 16 tackles during the match.
But more than the numbers were his impact on the game: he scored a try, dented the line and put people through holes (his cut-out pass to Tim Ryan was a cracker).
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He wasn’t the only forward who rolled up his sleeves, with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto also producing one of his best efforts in Super Rugby in years.
The improvement in his body height through contact has been noticeable, too. Just ask Anton Segner, who went flying off his feet following the Test lock’s carry.
If he can continue in that bruising manner, he’ll be a certainty to replace Will Skelton, who will miss the rest of 2026 because of an achilles injury.
Christy Doran’s Australian Super Rugby team of the week
Wallabies XV: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Tim Ryan, 13 Joey Walton, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Sid Harvey, 10 Harry McLaughlin-Philipps, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (player of the round), 7 Rory Scott, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Zane Nonggorr, 2 Josh Nasser, 1 Aidan Ross