Why Wales have nothing to lose against New Zealand
Planet Rugby features writer James While looks at the bleak situation facing Wales against New Zealand in their Autumn Nations Series clash in Cardiff.
Fortune
Spend any amount of time on social media chatting rugby and you can bet your bottom dollar that you’ll be curtly reminded that Wales are the reigning Six Nations champions.
You won’t be allowed to discuss the detail of their rather fortuitous 2021 campaign, you’ll be prohibited from reminding anyone that the stokes of fortune along their way were legion and you certainly won’t be permitted to suggest that, despite the titular honour, they’re nowhere near the best side in the Northern Hemisphere.
If you want to be harsh you can argue that last season has papered over a lot of Welsh tactical and selectorial cracks; it demonstrated a return to the old player guard and an over-reliance on experience above youth, despite the emergence of the sensational Louis Rees-Zammit and it underlined the lack of depth that Wales have within their modest playing numbers.
Nevertheless, Wales are a side bonded by a great team ethic and spirit, catalysed by the immense presence of Alun Wyn Jones, a man who will break Richie McCaw’s cap record for one country on Saturday and a player that, despite his fading powers on the pitch, is still the heartbeat of his proud country. As he runs out on Saturday, his barrel chest will burst with pride and his presence will fill the Principality Stadium as his home fans celebrate their favourite deity.
However, this is the biggest test Wales have faced in years. It’s a real litmus of where they are now and where they’d aspire to be. Without a win against the All Blacks since 1953, 67 long years of disappointment have passed for the rugby mad nation and Saturday looks like another result repeat of the result of their last 30 fixtures.
Yes, Wales have some clear mitigation as their side is seriously affected by injury and unavailability, the latter due to the lack of a release agreement with the English Premiership clubs. However, looking at the team selected, the PRL situation, whilst notionally removing 10 availabilities, possibly makes a real difference of three nailed on starters in Rees-Zammit, Dan Biggar and Taulupe Faletau, with a couple of fringe players like Thomas Young and Owen Williams also affected. However, with the WRU well aware of their availability issues outside of the November window, you have to question the wisdom of placing this fixture on a date where they already knew they’d be brimming with unavailability.
Success
What does success look like for Wales? It really depends on which lens you look through. Already, the litany of the resale of tickets on fan groups and the like suggests the rank and file supporter isn’t fancying the Welsh chances and New Zealand (at the time of writing) are slated at 1/33 to win.
For some, a spirited defeat within 15 or 20 points would be an outcome; for others, the chance just to see New Zealand is enough. But for the players, only a victory will be good enough and it just might be that the secret weapon Wales possess is their lack of international exposure for their younger players.
Fortune favours the bold and sometimes, points of reference and previous experiences can jaundice a player’s thinking to the point of performance paralysis. Take the simple example of Michael Vaughan’s Ashes win in 2005 – where he removed players like Graham Thorpe from the team purely because he (and the selectors) believed they were shell-shocked from their previous drubbings by Australia. The outcome was a side playing without fear and one free of the mental encumbrance of consistent failure against the very best team in the world.
It may be the case that, prior to kick-off, none of the Welsh 23 would get close to getting into the New Zealand matchday squad, but those young charges have 80 minutes to disprove that theory. The message from captain Jones and head coach Wayne Pivac should be clear – play without fear, play without worry.
There is absolutely nothing to lose here and everything to gain and, with the weather forecast certain to hamper the running style of New Zealand, perhaps, just perhaps, we might see 67 years of uncomfortable history overturned.
Wales’ 23 to be blown away
Planet Rugby features writer James While gives his view on the Wales squad.