Wales’ woes to continue against Ireland

Colin Newboult
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Ireland's Johnny Sexton (left) and Wales' Leigh Halfpenny in action during the Guinness Six Nations match at the Aviva Stadium, Dublin.

It has been an indifferent year for both Ireland and Wales in 2020, but these teams will look to end it on a high during the inaugural Autumn Nations Cup.

While ‘frustration’ is the watchword for Andy Farrell, having seen a potentially promising Six Nations campaign curtailed due to disappointing away defeats to England and France, it is sheer desolation in Wales.

The arrival of Wayne Pivac was meant to herald a new era; an expansive game plan which combined the excellent results of Warren Gatland with the style associated with the teams of yesteryear.

Although the latter target has, at times, been met, the former certainly hasn’t after succumbing in their previous five matches. The only victory under their new head coach was against perennial strugglers Italy, leaving them searching for answers heading into this new competition.

Coaching problems

One of their responses was to sack their coach, Byron Hayward, just five days prior to Friday’s encounter. It was a shock to Welsh fans’ systems and means that they are without a defence specialist for the start of the tournament.

Confidence is low and Pivac is under pressure as they go to Dublin desperate for a result which will ease the burden on the New Zealander. The style has also started to suffer, with their performance versus Scotland in the Six Nations by far their worst in 2020.

Ireland will duly attempt to capitalise on the struggles their Celtic rivals are enduring, despite themselves faltering two weeks ago. Farrell’s men had the chance to lift some silverware on ‘Super Saturday’ but succumbed in Paris to an improving French side, completing an ultimately dissatisfying competition for the Irish.

There is at least a semblance that they are heading in the right direction. While their opening display in the Six Nations against Scotland was poor, the triumph over Wales a week later was a significant development.

After losing to England, the Emerald Isle then returned from the enforced break to put Italy to the sword before they showed glimpses of their quality in going down to France. However, there are questions surrounding their star fly-half Johnny Sexton who, at 35, is surely coming to the end of his international career.

Those same voices have also been snapping at his half-back partner Conor Murray, with the 31-year-old struggling to find the form which put him among the world’s best not so long ago. As a result, Jamison Gibson-Park has been handed a chance to start ahead of Murray, while the uncapped Billy Burns provides the cover for Sexton on the bench.

The next month is an ideal opportunity to bring younger players into the fold, but results are also vitally important, particularly for two teams that have had their critics in 2020.

Ireland are no doubt the favourites for Friday’s encounter, though, and will expect to do the job against a Welsh outfit that may just have to write off this year and start afresh in 2021.

Players to watch:

For Ireland: The Leinster livewire James Lowe makes his international debut having served his three-year residency period and it will interesting to see how he adapts to the highest level. The New Zealand-born speedster has impressed at the Dubliners since joining from the Chiefs, with his attacking prowess causing numerous problems for opposition defences, but Test matches challenge your all-round skill set. Lowe has most things covered with ball in hand due to his pace, balance and superb off-loading ability, while he also has an excellent understanding of the game, but the 28-year-old has had issues defensively. He missed a lot of tackles when playing in Super Rugby and, although it hasn’t been quite as noticeable since moving to Ireland, it will be exploited by the best teams should it still be an issue for the wing.

For Wales: It is obviously a big game for the three reaching their milestones, with Alun Wyn Jones, George North and Tomas Francis all set to hit big landmarks, but it is particularly important for the pack in general. Since Wayne Pivac has taken charge, they have lacked a bite up front and were outplayed by Scotland in their final Six Nations encounter. That means Francis and Jones will have to step up, while they will expect good performances from Taulupe Faletau, who is currently some way off his best, and the returning Justin Tipuric. That back-row duo are vital to how they play, with Tipuric especially missed in Llanelli, and Pivac needs them to step up.

Head-to-head: There are a few intriguing battlegrounds on Friday but the clash at full-back may well play a key role in the way the game goes. For Ireland, you have Jacob Stockdale, a player that is brilliant on the wing but has looked all at sea since moving to the 15 shirt. He had a shocker in Paris, making some obvious mistakes which led to points for the Frenchmen, but it was his general positioning which was particularly concerning. Despite playing plenty of age-grade rugby at full-back, Stockdale struggled with the basics against France and Wales will look to play on that. In contrast, the Welsh have the ever-reliable Leigh Halfpenny, who rarely makes errors. However, Halfpenny is not the threat he once was in attack, leading some to question whether Liam Williams should take that slot and allow the exceedingly talented Louis Rees-Zammit to come into the XV. Both have had their critics recently and they will look to answer them in Dublin this weekend.

Previous results:

2020: Ireland won 24-14 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 19-10 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 22-17 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 25-7 in Cardiff
2018: Ireland won 37-27 in Dublin
2017: Wales won 22-9 in Cardiff
2016: The teams drew 16-16 in Dublin
2015: Wales won 16-10 in Dublin
2015: Ireland won 35-21 in Cardiff
2015: Wales won 23-16 in Cardiff

Prediction: Wales are in disarray at the moment and it is difficult to see anything other than a victory for the hosts. Andy Farrell’s men are no great shakes themselves having had a mediocre Six Nations, but they are in a far better place than Friday’s opponents. Ireland by 12 points.

The teams:

Ireland: 15 Jacob Stockdale, 14 Hugo Keenan, 13 Chris Farrell, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jonathan Sexton (c), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Andrew Porter, 2 Ronan Kelleher, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Dave Heffernan, 17 Ed Byrne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Quinn Roux, 20 Will Connors, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Billy Burns, 23 Keith Earls

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Liam Williams, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Owen Watkin, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Wyn Jones, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 George North

Date: Friday, November 13
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Kick-off: 19:00 GMT
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
Assistant Referees: Pascal Gauzere (France), Alex Ruiz (France)
TMO: Romain Poite (France)

 

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