Wales to avoid shock defeat to Fiji in Cardiff

Another busy Autumn Nations Series round concludes in Cardiff on Sunday with an intriguing contest between two nations with plenty of history, Wales and Fiji.

Wales come into the game on the back of a narrow 23-18 loss to South Africa while Fiji recovered from early setbacks in Madrid to beat Spain 43-13 last week.

It’s very much a new-look Welsh XV this week as they roll the dice in some selections, with one eye possibly on taking on Australia next Saturday. Meanwhile, the islanders make seven changes to their team, with the likes of quality trio Josua Tuisova, Peni Ravai and Viliame Mata coming into their starting line-up.

Looking back over the history books, Wales have got the better of Fiji 10 times in 12 previous attempts, drawing once and losing an epic clash in Nantes that saw them knocked out of the 2007 Rugby World Cup in a match that lasts in the memory of both nations. But it hardly tells the full story, with four of those victories being decided by seven points or less, while Fiji led their last meeting – a World Cup pool fixture in Japan in 2019 – 10-0, before Wales prevailed.

Fiji’s often devastating combination of unpredictability and blistering attacking rugby makes them dangerous and Wales know they can’t switch off for a second or they will be punished, with it promising to be another high-octane and dramatic contest between these two familiar rugby foes at the Principality Stadium.

Last time they met

It came in the 2019 Rugby World Cup pool stage as Wales won 29-17 to go top of the standings after their third match. Fiji opened the game in scintillating fashion as Tuisova barged over on the right wing and things could’ve got even better but for a Frank Lomani try being chalked off due to a forward pass. Fiji didn’t let that throw them off their rhythm though and Kini Murimurivalu went over on nine minutes to double their lead to 10-0. Thankfully for Wales that sparked them into life with Josh Adams crossing twice before the half-hour mark as they moved 14-10 in front, but Fiji hit back with a penalty try as the lead changed hands once again. Replacements Rhys Patchell levelled things up off the tee and then came a moment of magic from Jonathan Davies as he set up Adams for a well-taken hat-trick, with Liam Williams crossing on 69 minutes to extend the margin to two scores, which ultimately made sure of the result at Oita Stadium.

What they said

Wales flanker Thomas Young is excited about playing his first game at the Principality Stadium on Sunday – 20 years after running out in Cardiff as a mascot.

“I have obviously been there to watch games, but I’ve never played there,” he said. “I think I trained on the pitch once, maybe.

“I have never played there, not even at club level. My cousin has played there more than me, and he doesn’t let me live that down, so hopefully this weekend he can stop talking about it!

“I remember the noise of running out – that sticks in the memory, for sure.”

Meanwhile, Fiji head coach Vern Cotter, who is watching the team from afar due to being based in New Zealand, said their focus is to do the little things well.

“We should get away with the mindset of just competing with these teams but actually playing to beat them,” he demanded. “We are working on the skills and on what we can do to become a more resilient opposition and learn to win.

“I hope we get clarity in our set-piece, get over the gain line off our carries and I hope defensively we defend well plus there are a lot of little things we need to do right against Wales.

“Following up the All Blacks series is important because they are a good team and exposed us in certain parts of the game. We have worked on these areas and I think we are becoming better in our set-piece, tight plays as we avoid giving away penalties and we now learn to win games.”

Players to watch

The positional shift of Josh Adams to outside centre will certainly be one to keep a close eye on as head coach Pivac looks at different options in this fixture. George North was one such experiment that worked very well and with Adams such a devastating runner, it’ll be interesting to watch how possibly seeing more ball either enhances or scuppers his impact on this Welsh team. Also keep an eye on the returning Alex Cuthbert, who must be applauded for fighting his way back on to the international stage. His form for Exeter Chiefs last season caught the eye and one hopes it will be a positive comeback in the red shirt.

For Fiji we’re excited to see prop Peni Ravai come into the starting line-up as he featured off the bench against Spain, coming on to score a try. This powerful front-row will cause Wales plenty of problems with ball in hand and if Fiji get within the Welsh try-line, watch out for him and Sam Matavesi taking short carries. While Fiji are renowned for exciting backs, it is their skilled and mobile forwards who often steal the show and Ravai is one to watch, not just in the loose but in the set-piece, which was an area Wales struggled last week against the Springboks. If Fiji get on top there a shock could happen.

Main head-to-head

Wales excitement machine Louis Rees-Zammit must have chuckled to himself at the team selection as his switch from the right wing to the left results in him facing off with the mighty Josua Tuisova. Tuisova has shown on countless occasions that he can steamroll those standing in his way and Rees-Zammit will therefore need to not take a backward step in what is often seen as a losing battle against the hulking Fijian. On the flipside, Tuisova must be wary of the Welsh speedster’s threat with ball in hand in what is a wonderful battle between two players with very different qualities. Imagine them on the same team.

Prediction

While Fiji will pose the Welsh problems throughout the match in Cardiff, we feel there is enough quality for the hosts to prevail at home. Wales by 12.

Previous results

2019: Wales won 29-17 in Oita
2015: Wales won 23-13 in Cardiff
2014: Wales won 17-13 in Cardiff
2011: Wales won 66-0 in Hamilton
2010: The sides drew 16-16 in Cardiff
2007: Fiji won 38-34 in Nantes
2005: Wales won 11-10 in Cardiff
2002: Wales won 58-14 in Cardiff

The teams

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Josh Adams, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Louis Rees-Zammit, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Taine Basham, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Ellis Jenkins (c), 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Rhys Carré
Replacements: 16 Bradley Roberts, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 WillGriff John, 19 Christ Tshiunza, 20 Seb Davies, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Nick Tompkins

Fiji: 15 Setareki Tuicuvu, 14 Josua Tuisova, 13 Waisea Nayacalevu, 12 Vilimoni Botitu, 11 Eroni Sau, 10 Ben Volavola, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Viliame Mata, 7 Mesulame Kunavula, 6 Albert Tuisue, 5 Temo Mayanavanua, 4 Api Ratuniyarawa, 3 Mesake Doge, 2 Sam Matavesi, 1 Peni Ravai
Replacements: 16 Zuriel Togiatama, 17 Eroni Mawi, 18 Leeroy Atalifo, 19 Tevita Ratuva, 20 Masivesi Dakuwaqa, 21 Nikola Matawalu, 22 Apisai Naqalevu, 23 Aminiasi Tuimaba

Date: Sunday, November 14
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 15:15 GMT
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)