Wales and Australia to go down to the wire

David Skippers

Wales and Australia resume hostilities in what should be a closely fought and entertaining Autumn Nations Series Test at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday.

After suffering a narrow defeat to the Springboks a fortnight ago, Wales bounced back with a 38-23 victory over Fiji at the same venue last weekend.

Although the home side outscored the Pacific islanders six tries to one, they had to dig deep to secure the win as their opponents held the upper hand for long periods despite playing with 14 men for most of that match, after Eroni Sau was red carded and they even had 13 players on the field for two 10-minute periods following yellow cards to Albert Tuisue and Eroni Mawi.

Wales are without the services of several experienced stars like Alun Wyn Jones, Taulupe Faletau, George North, Ken Owens and Ross Moriarty, who are all injured but head coach Wayne Pivac will be impressed with the way players like Taine Basham, Ellis Jenkins and Ryan Elias have stepped into the breach as adequate replacements.

For Australia, this is the last chance saloon as far as the Autumn Nations Series is concerned as they have already suffered defeats against Scotland and England in their previous matches on their end-of-year tour.

The Wallabies came into this month in a confident mood after winning four successive matches during the Rugby Championship before also beating Japan last month.

But things have gone pear-shaped for head coach Dave Rennie and his troops in recent weeks and nothing but a victory – by any margin – will appease their fans and rescue their tour.

Last time they met

These sides faced off during a tightly contested pool match in Tokyo at the 2019 Rugby World Cup with Wales eventually notching a narrow 29-25 victory. Australia outscored Warren Gatland’s charges three tries to two with Hadleigh Parkes and Gareth Davies crossing the whitewash for Wales. The victors’ other points were scored by Rhys Patchell, who kicked three penalties, a drop goal and a conversion and Dan Biggar also succeeded with a snap-shot and a two-pointer off the kicking tee. For the Wallabies, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Dane Haylett-Petty and Michael Hooper scored tries while Matt Toomua added a penalty and two conversions and Bernard Foley also kicked a penalty.

What they said

Wales head coach Pivac expects a big onslaught from the Wallabies, who will be desperate for victory after those defeats to Scotland and England.

“Australia have been on the road for a while now, the series they had down South and a couple of losses in the last couple of games,” he said. “They’ll be hurting from that and they’ll want to finish their tour on a high note, as we’d like to finish our campaign on a high note. It bodes well for a pretty interesting fixture.

“Dave Rennie brings a physical approach to the game and we certainly expect that from the Australians but we have to be able to match that and impose ourselves on the game. It’s going to be an enthralling encounter I think and a great way to finish a series. We’re really looking forward to Saturday.”

Meanwhile, Wallabies fly-half James O’Connor downplayed their recent defeats to Scotland and England and believes they can turn the corner against Wales.

“There’s a heap of good things to take out of this year,” he said.

“It’s two losses and two that we will learn big lessons from.

“This week is all about just putting it together – finding that balance of how we play and also playing the conditions and then just finishing the tour on a high.

“We feel we’ve a had a good year and we’ve really built this year so we want to show the public you know what we can do.”

Players to watch

After being a late inclusion on the replacements bench against Fiji, Uilisi Halaholo caught the eye on the attack during a 30-minute cameo during the second half of that game. The Cardiff centre’s fine display – he gained 39 attacking metres from four runs – has been rewarded with a place in the starting line-up against the Wallabies and he will be hoping to Test his opponents’ defence with his superb playmaking skills.

Since making his return to the Test arena – after a three-year absence due to a serious knee injury – in that defeat to the Springboks, Ellis Jenkins has done well at the coalface of Wales’ forward effort. Solid in the tackle and a powerful ball carrier, the 28-year-old knows he will have to hit the ground running in both departments if Wales want to secure victory. Jenkins also did well as Wales’ captain against Fiji last weekend and his leadership will also be important if the Welsh want to end their 2021 international campaign on a high.

If the Wallabies want to end their losing run, then their forwards will have come to the party and one player who will be important to the cause is Rob Valetini, who has cemented his place as the team’s first choice number eight. The 23-year-old was one of the star performers during the latter stages of the Rugby Championship as he came to the fore with strong attacking performances during his team’s four-match unbeaten run in that tournament.

Another player who will play a crucial role is scrum-half Nic White, who is an important link between the Wallaby forwards and backs. His ability to control the tempo of the game, speed to the breakdown and slick service makes him a genuine attacking threat and if he receives good front-foot ball he should prove a handful to Wales’ defence. He is also handy on defence as Jamie George found out at Twickenham last week.

Main head-to-head

Although they will seldom be involved in direct duels, the two full-backs should be influential and in Wales’ Liam Williams and Kurtley Beale of Australia we have two experienced campaigners who will be at the forefront of their respective teams’ attacking onslaughts. Williams was put in a fine form against Fiji as he finished with a whopping 126 metres gained from 15 carries which included eight tackles broken a couple of offloads and a try. Although Beale was kept in check by England, he has a vast array of skills and should test Wales’ defence if his inside backs provide him with attacking opportunities.

Prediction

This is a difficult one to call as these are two evenly matched teams but Wales will have a slight edge in their own backyard. This game should go down to the wire but Wales will win by three points.

Previous results

2019: Wales won 29-25 in Tokyo (RWC)
2018: Wales won 9-6 in Cardiff
2017: Australia won 29-21 in Cardiff
2016: Australia won 32-8 in Cardiff
2015: Australia won 15-6 in London (RWC)
2014: Australia won 33-28 in Cardiff
2013: Australia won 30-26 in Cardiff
2012: Australia won 14-12 in Cardiff

The teams

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Uilisi Halaholo, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Ellis Jenkins (c), 5 Seb Davies, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Ben Carter, 20 Christ Tshiunza, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Johnny McNicholl

Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Pete Samu, 6 Rob Leota, 5 Izack Rodda, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 James Slipper (c)
Replacements: 16 Folau Fainga’a, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Will Skelton, 20 Lachlan Swinton, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Lalakai Foketi, 23 Tom Wright

Date: Saturday, November 20
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17:30 GMT
Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)