Top 14 preview, Week 23

A thrilling end to the Top 14 season is approaching, with queues of clubs vying for – and to avoid – spots at both ends of the table.

A thrilling end to the Top 14 regular season is approaching, with queues of clubs vying for – and to avoid – limited spots at both ends of the table.

Mathematically, any club from Brive downwards could still be relegated along with Albi, while any club upwards of Bayonne could somehow nail that final play-off spot in sixth, as well as the Heineken Cup rugby that would come with it.

At the top, five teams are within four points of each other in the race for the two automatic semi-final spots – which include a week of rest while the play-offs are on.

This weekend sees some critical matches. Racing Metro and Brive go head-to-head with sixth spot incumbency up for grabs, while Montauban's trip to Albi could provide the men in green with a handy fistful of points to take them out of danger.

Two other relegation candidates, Montpellier and Bayonne, face trips to high-flyers Clermont and Castres respectively while Bourgoin have a home match with Toulon to navigate. Bet on one of Montpol, Bayonne or Bourgoin to be in 13th come the end of Saturday.

The other two fixtures would have been pivotal last season, but Stade Français' trip to Perpignan is an attempt at salvage from the wreckage of this season. Lose and the Parisians might not even make Europe next year. The same goes for Biarritz, who host Toulouse knowing they are closer to relegation than Heineken Cup rugby.

Fixtures:

Friday March 26:
Bourgoin v Toulon

Saturday March 27:
Racing Metro v Brive
Castres v Bayonne
Clermont v Montpellier
Albi v Montauban
Perpignan v Stade Français
Biarritz v Toulouse

Standings:

1 Castres 67
2 Perpignan 66
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3 Clermont 65
4 Toulouse 65
5 Toulon 63
6 Racing Metro 55
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7 Brive 51
8 Stade Français 49
9 Biarritz 48
10 Bourgoin 44
11 Bayonne 43
12 Montpellier 42
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13 Montauban 41
14 Albi 19
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All times are local – GMT+1

CS Bourgoin-Jallieu v RC Toulon
Stade Pierre-Rajon, 20.45

It's Bourgoin's last match at the Stade Pierre-Rajon this season – their other home match will be against Toulouse in Saint Etienne. Success against Toulouse and away at Brive next week is unlikely, so the Berjalliens would probably have targets this and the final day match against Montpellier as the two most likely wins remaining.

Coach Eric Catinot also conceded this week it would need the side to 'raise their level to one they have yet to find this season' in order to beat Philippe Saint-Andre's men who are on a run of five victories including the success in Toulouse.

A win for Toulon would all but guarantee them a spot in the play-offs after Racing Metro's slip last week, but the squad is stretched thin enough that Tana Umaga is set to play – if his playing licence is delivered on time.

“He's lost none of his timing and still has the enthusiasm of a junior,” remarked Saint-Andre. Bourgoin had better beware.

Prediction: Toulon are just too strong. Toulon by five.
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Racing Metro 92 Paris v CA Brive-Corrèze
Stade Yves du Manoir, 14.15

The Parisians will be out to prove a point after last week's slip at Montauban which has cost them dearly in the race for the finish, but what better time to prove it than against their nearest challengers?

International lock pairing Lionel Nallet and Sebastian Chabal are back, as is prop Clement Baiocco but points machine fly-half Jonathan Wisniewski is missing through injury.

For Brive, Riki Flutey has returned injured from international duty while the furore surrounding his future still continues. The club issued a stark denial of any movement at all of Flutey, despite rumours of his moving to Wasps, London Irish and Munster.

Lose this match and Brive will be all but out of the race for a play-off spot.

Prediction: In Brive, we might have tipped against them, but Racing should be too strong at home with their internationals back. Racing by eight.
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Castres Olympique v Aviron Bayonnais
Stade Pierre-Antoine, 14.30

The Top 14 high-flyers and surprise package of the season enter the final straight of the season needing a win before a horror final three fixtures against Perpignan, Clermont and Toulouse in which any loss of steam from their run could yet see them fall away from the semi-final spots.

They enjoy the return of France's new star Marc Andreu this week, meaning there's no spot for Mathieu Nicolas.

Bayonne's task is very different. They'll take anything the can from this game as the spectre of relegation haunts the Stade Jean Dauger and the final day clash with Montauban looms as decisive.

Locks Rob Linde and Nicolas Laffite return but there's no sign of international winger Benjamin Fall who is likely only to be back for the match against Toulon next week.

Prediction: Castres to take all five points from this one and head into the final weeks in as strong a position as possible. Castres by fifteen.
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ASM Clermont Auvergne v Montpellier HRC
Stade Marcel Michelin, 14.30

Clermont have a gilt-edged chance to storm the summit if there's any slip-up from Castres with a home game against Montpellier, who have shown their ambition for this one by leaving out fly-half Francois Trinh-Duc.

That comes in the midst of an injury crisis which has so many scrum-halves injured that Arnaud Solis will make his Top 14 debut.

Federico Todeschini and Fulgence Ouedraogo are two other key players out injured; it could be a long afternoon in the Auvergne.

Clermont often make a habit of attacking practice for their big guns on opposition such as that but Julien Malzieu and Morgan Parra are both rested while Gonzalo Canale is out injured.

That still leaves a back-line of Brock James, Seremaia Bai, Marius Joubert, Brent Russell, Aurelien Rougerie and Anthony Floch for the Heraults to deal with.

Prediction: A hail of Clermont tries and a thirty-point victory
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USA Perpignan v Stade Français
Stade Aimé-Giral, 14.30

Perpignan's title defence has looked a little fragile at times but they appear to be timing their run just about right and have found a sense of purpose to their long season, according to centre Maxime Mermoz.

“We've spent a lot of this season looking around a bit but not really finding a sense of direction,” he said. “Now our objectives are clear, this is the final sprint.”

Following this, the Catalans have away matches at Castres and Toulon before a final-day cruise at home to Albi