Three key scenarios for the third Lions Test
Planet Rugby features writer James While gives us three scenarios that could play out in the third Test between South Africa and the British and Irish Lions.
Reinach revival
For many, Faf de Klerk is rightly considered the heartbeat of the South African side. A brilliant thoroughbred of a scrum-half, his speed of thought matches his speed of execution and his pinpoint kicking has been the tactic South Africa have relied upon to tease and tantalise the British and Irish Lions for the last two Tests.
Some may have thought the Lions would breathe a sigh of relief when the Sale number nine was sidelined for the series decider through a hip flexor issue, but the 2019 Rugby World Cup champions have immense depth and are in the envious position of replacing a world class scrum-half with another absolutely brilliant performer in the former Northampton Saint, Cobus Reinach.
For two Tests, the Lions have built their defence around the simple premise of shutting down De Klerk’s game, but Reinach has a different skill set, one based upon outright pace and brilliant breaking combined with a nose for the intercept try. He brings a totally different challenge and one that requires much stronger defence around the ruck fringes than perhaps De Klerk’s more varied game demands.
In a Test where the Lions may very well have to force their hand to score tries, Reinach’s ability to read a pass, intercept and steal, may very well prove crucial and we just have a feeling that the sensational former Saint might have rather more than just a bit part to play in this series.
Greeting cards
Let’s be honest, at least four or five players were lucky not to receive cards of colour in the last Test. De Klerk’s wild no-arms tackle on Conor Murray may have seen red in any other scenario, whilst Duhan van der Merwe can count himself similarly lucky not to have seen further sanctions.
Maro Itoje’s knee-led reminder to Damian de Allende might have been an old school move to encourage the Bok centre to stay onside, but in the modern era, he’s lucky not to have been sanctioned, whilst there’s absolutely no doubt that Cheslin Kolbe’s head high tackle on Tom Curry and his subsequent tip tackle on Murray should have seen a much sterner outcome.
With tempers simmering throughout the match, both sides were lucky to have 15 men each on the pitch at the end of the game and if we see anything more physical than the scenes we witnessed last week, there will certainly be tougher sanctions.
Referee Mathieu Raynal is used to the pressure cooker of the Top 14 – a league that vacillates between modern art in the backs and gang warfare in the forwards, and his default is to act swiftly and decisively, with little tolerance for some of the carelessness and stupidity that defined the second Test.
It’ll be a great shame if a card defines the series, but there’s a feeling of deep inevitability around this. The game will be ill-tempered, it will be niggly and it’s only a matter of time before someone cops a big sanction, judging from what we’ve seen so far.
Catch-up
Our last scenario is the most probable. It’s a delicious irony that once the game was switched to sea level that both sets of players decided to play the matches at as high an altitude as possible, and promptly spent the last 160 minutes hoofing the ball as far into the sky as they possibly can.
Sure, the underfoot conditions at the Cape Town Stadium are horrendous and not fit for Test rugby, so it’s a good plan to cut them out of the reckoning altogether, but that surface also means that any side trying to run the ball as a vehicle to play catch-up rugby is going to spend their time spinning their wheels in the many sand-dunes that lie under the seemingly lush green turf.
That means we might just see the side chasing a small lead in the third quarter gets absolutely shredded through trying to play catch-up rugby in the latter stages, as turf gives way during runs, players slip and get isolated and the evening dew makes speculative passing just about as rewarding as climbing Table Mountain in flip-flops.
We can honestly see a big score today – one where one of these two magnificent sides finally falls and crumbles, unable to resist the power of their opponent.
The only question is which side will that be?
Planet Rugby - 3rd Lions Test - Jon Newcombe
Jon Newcombe brings Planet Rugby his thoughts on the third and final Lions Test against the Springboks as the series sits on a knife edge. There's also a special offer with us here at Planet Sport Bet too!