The short side: Play-off permutations, Typhoon Hagibis

Colin Newboult

The short side returns to Planet Rugby as we study the major talking points ahead of this weekend’s pool games in the Rugby World Cup.

Rugby World Cup

Ireland v Samoa

Ireland are on the verge of qualifying for the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals but know they face a daunting challenge in Fukuoka against the Pacific Islanders, who are desperate for a victory after winning just one of their three previous matches in the tournament.

Joe Schmidt’s men started their campaign in style with an impressive bonus-point win over Scotland but suffered a stunning defeat to Japan in their next match and, although they bounced back with a win over Russia, that was an unconvincing triumph and they will be keen to deliver an improved performance on Saturday.

That is easier said that done, however, as Samoa should be competitive. The Pacific Islanders are also renowned for their physicality which means Ireland will also be hoping to avoid injuries in this match.

Despite that, the Irish will start as favourites and are expected to win this game comfortably and, in doing so, advance to the play-offs.

However, with the spectre of a typhoon looming in the background, Schmidt is also keeping an eye on the other match in the group between Japan and Scotland as a cancellation will mean his side finishes behind the Brave Blossoms in the pool and therefore take on New Zealand in the quarter-finals.

“There is a distraction; there was a lot of talk among the players post-training today when we found out about the cancellations,” he said.

“Because any time there’s something up in the air or something is unknown – especially when two games have already been abandoned – you get players are going to talk about that because it’s newsworthy and influential once games are being cancelled.

“But we’ve just got to make sure our game gets finished with the right result for us, and I’m sure Samoa are going to make that as difficult for us as possible.

“We’re not really having too many conversations with World Rugby; we had a few earlier in the week because at one stage the typhoon pattern was somewhat different from what it is now. For us we just have to be business as usual. We can’t control what happens with Japan-Scotland, it’s up to us to get our business done as best we can.”

Japan v Scotland

There will be plenty at stake if this crucial Pool C encounter between the Brave Blossoms and Scotland takes place in Yokohama on Sunday.

With Typhoon Hagibis wreaking havoc and already the cause of the England v France and New Zealand v Italy matches being cancelled, every effort is being made to ensure Sunday’s matches will go ahead as scheduled. World Rugby has revealed that a thorough assessment of venues will take place after the typhoon has passed before a final decision is made on Sunday morning.

There has been plenty of hype around this fixture as both sides are still in the running to reach the play-offs and, if the game goes ahead, don’t be surprised if it is an entertaining spectacle.

The host nation has been the surprise package at the Rugby World Cup and are the only unbeaten team left in Pool A after beating Russia, Ireland and Samoa. They have lit up the tournament with their brilliant attacking displays and a win in this fixture will be a momentous achievement for the country as it will be the first time in their history that they will have advanced to the quarter-finals.

Brave Blossoms head coach Jamie Joseph deserves plenty of credit for turning his side into a competitive unit. Experienced players like Yu Tamura, Michael Leitch and Shota Horie have done well while new stars have emerged in players like Pieter Labuschagne and Kotaro Matsushima, who have set the tournament alight.

Scotland, meanwhile, have shown steady improvement after starting their campaign on a low note with a 27-3 defeat to Ireland in their tournament opener. They bounced back with impressive triumphs over Samoa and Russia in which they conceded zero points in both matches.

The Scots have shown in those two games that they have plenty of attacking threats so expect players like Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg and Sean Maitland to play leading roles in that department.

Player to watch – Kazuki Himeno (Japan)

The back-rower has been one of the stars of the tournament and, as a result, featured in two of our Team of the Weeks for excellent displays against Ireland and Samoa. Following Amanaki Mafi’s injury against the Irishmen, Himeno has dovetailed nicely with Pieter Labuschagne and Michael Leitch to help them to within touching distance of the quarter-finals.

Plenty of focus has been on the form of their star wings, Kotaro Matsushima and Lomano Lemeki, but it is the work of the number eight which has enabled them to thrive. Himeno is a big ball carrier and regularly gets over the gain line but, like all Japanese players, he combines that with a superb skill set.

The 25-year-old can off-load, understands the game excellently and looks for gaps rather than contact. He is also a threat at the breakdown and caused the Samoans numerous problems in the game last weekend. Scotland will have to watch him closely or else the Sunwolves player will enjoy another profitable contest against Gregor Townsend’s back-row.

One-v-one battle to watch – Jordan Lamour (Ireland) v Tim Nanai-Williams (Samoa)

These two players will have big roles to play in this encounter as they will be expected to give their respective sides go-forward from the back. Both are excitement machines, who have the ability to leave their stamp on a match with a moment of brilliant and don’t bet against that happening in this fixture.

As Ireland’s second choice full-back behind Rob Kearney, who has been rested for this encounter, Lamour will be keen to take his chance and show off his excellent attacking abilities. The 22-year-old announced himself on the international stage with a hat-trick against Italy last year and has shown steady improvement for his club, Leinster, and country since then.

Nanai-Williams is also superb with ball in hand and has the ability to unlock the tightest defences with his vast array of skills. Blessed with a brilliant sidestep, the 30-year-old thrives in unstructured play and Ireland will be wise to avoid that as the Clermont Auvergne man is sure to wreak havoc if that occurs.

Subplot to watch – the impact of the weather

There was always a risk that the inclement conditions would come into play, as we predicted before the tournament, and, unfortunately, so it has come to pass. Two games have already been cancelled, England v France and New Zealand v Italy, and more could follow.

The game between Eddie Jones’ men and Jacques Brunel’s charges didn’t have too much impact on the tournament standings, while the Italians were unlikely to overcome the defending world champions, but it is still a farce that all four teams will not get a chance to play.

It is true that Italy had little chance of qualifying but this decision has had other implications. With Leonardo Ghiraldini set to end his international career following the World Cup, the hooker broke down in tears at the news, knowing that he has been denied a fitting farewell.

And then there is Sergio Parisse. Although one of the greats of the game hasn’t confirmed his retirement, it wouldn’t be a surprise should this be his final tournament in a blue shirt, and it would be a huge shame should it end in such a disappointing way.

Hopefully Typhoon Hagibis doesn’t wreak further havoc on the competition but Japan’s decisive Pool A encounter against Scotland is still in doubt. The pressure is on World Rugby and, should that group be decided by the weather, severe questions will be asked of the governing body as to why acceptable provisions weren’t put in place to ensure the matches went ahead. The decision to bring the World Cup to Japan was made in 2009, yet here we are 10 years later having seen the tournament descend into embarrassment.

Best of the rest

Of the games left, Ireland’s encounter with Samoa is the most important and will have a bearing as to how Pool A plays out. Other than that, all the quarter-finalists have now been decided.

The only question that remains is whether Wales or Australia finish top of Pool D, but it would be a huge shock should Warren Gatland’s men succumb to Uruguay, despite the short turnaround.

In fact, it could be the matches between the so-called ‘minnows’ that provide the most entertainment. For winless Canada and Namibia, who go head-to-head on Sunday, it is effectively their World Cup final, while the USA and Tonga will want to end their campaigns on a high in what should be a closely-fought contest.

Features