The short side: Boks on brink, warm-ups and the PNC

Colin Newboult

The short side returns to Planet Rugby as we study the major talking points ahead of this weekend’s Rugby Championship and World Cup warm-ups.

Rugby Championship finale

The last round of this year’s truncated tournament and the first game of the Bledisloe Cup gets underway in Perth where Australia play host to New Zealand before Argentina take on South Africa in Salta.

With the Wallabies and All Blacks game kicking off early, table toppers South Africa will know what is expected of them to win the tournament by the time their own crucial match begins later on Saturday.

Australia v New Zealand

Although they are playing away from home, New Zealand will start this game as favourites as they have won 10 of their last 11 Tests against Australia, including their last three on the bounce. The All Blacks have also won their last six Rugby Championship games in a row against the Wallabies, despite having trailed at half-time in two of their last three such fixtures.

Irrespective of those statistics, provided by Opta, Australia are undefeated in their last six games played in Western Australia – having won five and drawn one of those matches.

New Zealand’s form on the road is good as they have won 11 of their last 12 Tests away from home with the only loss in that span coming against Ireland in Dublin in 2018.

Australia meanwhile will be chasing back-to-back wins in the Rugby Championship for the first time since 2016 when they defeated South Africa (23-17) and Argentina (36-20) over consecutive weeks on home soil. Although their set-piece often comes in for criticism, Australia head into this fixture with the best line-out success rate (89%) in this year’s tournament – nine percentage points higher than New Zealand, who have the lowest rate (80%).

New Zealand have failed to score more than two tries in four of their last five Test matches, this after a run of 12 consecutive matches in which they’d scored four or more tries.

However, the world champions have missed the fewest tackles (20) of any team in this year’s competition – 29 fewer than the next best side (Australia, 49).

New Zealand’s Beauden Barrett (36 carries, 155 metres) and Australia’s Samu Kerevi (30 carries, 133 metres) are first and second respectively for both carries and metres gained in this year’s competition.

Meanwhile, the Wallabies’ Sekope Kepu has made the most tackles (16/16) of any player in the tournament yet to miss a single attempt, while his captain, Michael Hooper, has made the most of any player overall (27/30).

The last time these sides met, the All Blacks cruised to a 37-20 win in Yokohama last year – a result which highlighted their dominance in this fixture.

Argentina v South Africa

These two sides head into this match at opposite ends of the overall standings with the Springboks setting the pace in top spot – thanks to a win and a draw in their two previous matches – while the Pumas are rooted to the bottom of the table – after suffering defeats in their opening fixtures.

Argentina will be on the hunt for back-to-back wins against South Africa for the first time after securing a 32-19 victory in their previous encounter in Mendoza last year. Two of the previous three games between Argentina and South Africa at Ernesto Maltearena in Salta have been decided by a margin of just two points. However, South Africa claimed a 41-23 win in their most recent encounter there, in 2017.

Los Pumas’ only victory in their last 10 Tests on home soil was last year’s triumph against South Africa in Mendoza. South Africa are a much improved side, though, and have lost just one of their last five matches in the Rugby Championship – winning three and drawing one – and have scored 30 points or more three times during that time.

Although they are yet to register a win in 2019, the Argentinians have conceded 14 penalties in the competition this year – the fewest of any team. Mario Ledesma’s charges have also made the most offloads (26) of the teams in the Rugby Championship and double the amount of South Africa, who have made the fewest (13).

South Africa’s last seven Tests on the road have all been decided by a single figure margin – the Springboks’ results have been evenly split during that run, winning three, losing three and drawing once. Rassie Erasmus’ troops have scored the most tries (6) so far this year, twice as many as any other side in the tournament.

Herschel Jantjies, who starts on the bench for South Africa, is the only player in this year’s tournament to have scored multiple tries (3) so far – the scrum-half has made just seven carries.

Player to watch – Ardie Savea (New Zealand)

The 25-year-old’s game has come on in leaps and bounds over the past year and All Blacks head coach Steve Hansen is finding it increasingly difficult to leave him out of his matchday squad.

He has represented his country with distinction, mostly on the openside flank, but also impressed when he featured at number eight against Argentina in the All Blacks’ tournament opener, and will start on the blindside flank against the Wallabies this weekend – the first time he will wear the number six jersey at Test level.

The decision to select him in that position came as a big surprise as Hansen has previously ruled out the prospect of Savea and Sam Cane playing at six and seven for their country.

However, Savea was one of the standout players in Super Rugby and has brought his excellent form from that competition into the Test arena. If he can do the same in the number six jersey, he could nail down his spot in that position in the All Blacks’ first-choice starting line-up at the World Cup in Japan later this year.

One-v-one battle to watch – Facundo Isa (Argentina) v Duane Vermeulen (South Africa)

Isa and Vermeulen are vital cogs in their respective teams’ wheels and their performances should have a huge bearing on the outcome of this match.

After a two-year absence – due to playing his club rugby in Europe – Isa has returned to the Test arena and he has made an immediate impact on attack during the Pumas’ previous matches against the All Blacks and Wallabies.

Vermeulen has also shone as an attacker for the Boks and impressed with his leadership as his side’s captain during their 16-16 draw with the All Blacks a fortnight ago.

These two players are excellent with ball in hand and will be expected to give their sides much needed momentum on attack. However, it could be a case of an irresistible force coming up against an immovable object when they collide as both players are also superb defenders and seldom take a backward step in contact.

World Cup warm-ups

Two other international matches take place this weekend as Ireland host Italy on Saturday and England go head-to-head with Wales a day later. It may not have the intense media build-up or contain the excitement of the Six Nations, but it should provide plenty of interesting questions and answers.

For three of the sides, places appear up for grabs but, for England, their squad announcement edges closer. They are already down to 33, having released Mike Brown, Ben Te’o, Alex Dombrandt and Ben Spencer, and following the Wales encounter Eddie Jones will name his official 31-man group to head to Japan.

That is almost a month before the September 8 deadline set out by World Rugby which, on the face of it, seems bizarre. Injuries are surely going to happen and changes will duly be made, but Jones is approaching these games as genuine Test matches, rather than concerning himself with who is playing themselves in and out of contention.

There will still, to an extent, be a mix and match this weekend, with Lewis Ludlam, Ruaridh McConnochie and Willi Heinz having just one chance to impress before Monday’s squad announcement, but England won’t be as experimental.

That is in stark contrast to the Welsh, who need to cut 11 from their 42-man training squad, but Warren Gatland is probably just as close to Jones to knowing his World Cup group. After a stunning Grand Slam triumph, all those that played a part – injury depending – will surely be involved.

Gatland will, however, need to find an alternative to Ross Moriarty at number eight following the injury to Taulupe Faletau, while there are some interesting newbies looking ahead to the four matches, with prop Rhys Carre and Owen Lane both talented individuals who are yet to be capped.

In Dublin, Ireland will also take the experimental approach, with many of their experienced internationals sitting out their encounter against Italy. Jean Kleyn and Mike Haley are the two uncapped players looking to force their way in, but it is fellow Munsterman Tommy O’Donnell who is the more interesting story.

Having seen injury rob him of a World Cup place in 2015, O’Donnell has an excellent chance to make it four years later. Joe Schmidt will be without Dan Leavy and Sean O’Brien in Japan, which leaves him and Leinster’s Josh van der Flier as the only two natural opensides in the squad.

Whichever team is fielded, however, they should open with a comfortable victory over Italy, who have struggled over the past few years and are set for another group stage exit, particularly with both South Africa and New Zealand in their pool.

Subplot to watch – Inevitable injuries

It is nothing more than a money making exercise to have so many games and, as a result, player-welfare comes into question. Gone are the days when sides would only play two matches ahead of the global tournament, with most playing four ahead of the World Cup.

Only France out of the Six Nations teams have fewer contests and it simply increases the chances of being injured. Many individuals have seen their dreams of featuring in the competition ended by these encounters and, while they are necessary to prepare, the sheer number isn’t healthy for the sport.

Let’s hope there aren’t too many injuries over the next few weeks and we will see the world’s best take part in rugby’s showpiece.

https://twitter.com/taulupe/status/1157240825241358336

Best of the rest

It is the final round of the Pacific Nations Cup as the USA and Japan battle for the title. Having won their opening two matches in the tournament, both are building well ahead of the World Cup under impressive head coaches Jamie Joseph and Gary Gold.

The hosts will be favourites for this contest after comfortably beating Fiji and Tonga in their opening two rounds, but do not discount the North Americans, who are on an upward curve and will be a dangerous proposition for England, Argentina and France in Pool C.

Elsewhere, defending champions Fiji will be looking to end a mixed tournament on a positive note when they take on Pacific Island rivals Samoa, while winless Tonga and Canada go head-to-head in the other encounter.

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