Talking points from the RWC draw

Editor

The "Pool of Death" is back – but how deadly is it? That and more as we pick out the winners and losers from the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw.

WINNERS

Japan: The hosts will have been delighted to avoid the top two sides in the world, New Zealand and England, and overall there seems to be an air of optimism surrounding Japan's prospects in Pool A given they will be on home soil.

How much those good vibes can transfer onto the field is up for debate. Jamie Joseph has had to essentially start everything from scratch since taking over, with Eddie Jones packing up the whole circus seemingly down to the smallest details and moving on.

How Japan fare in this year's Pacific Nations Cup and then in the November Tests will offer up an indication of where the side currently are, but going off the development of a few key players for the Sunwolves, namely Yu Tamura, Shota Emi and currently uncapped Sydney-born back-row Rahboni Warren-Voyasco, there are signs of progress.

Tack on an extra two years in Super Rugby for the core of Joseph's side and we will get a far more well-rounded Japanese outfit than the one who shocked the world in 2015.

Australia: Who better to be paired with in your Rugby World Cup pool than the side you have 15 wins against in your last 16 matches.

2016 wasn't pretty for the Wallabies as Michael Cheika handed out new caps with an eye to the next four-year cycle, and while there has been nothing in Super Rugby to provide any optimism when it comes to the Wallabies, Cheika will have been pleased to avoid South Africa and Argentina.

If, like in 2015, the quarter-final line-up plays out as expected then a tough quarter-final against the runner-up in Pool C awaits. But that seems a fair price to pay for heading up one of the easier pools, and their record Wales means there is little reason to suggest they won't got through as pool winners.

Ireland and Scotland: No sign of the All Blacks or England in the group stages has to be a good thing, although Jamie Heaslip punching the air at the news that Ireland were in Pool A with Scotland, at an event in London, felt a little presumptuous.

After all, it's only a few weeks since Scotland got the better of Ireland at Murrayfield, and expectations are high for Gregor Townsend's tenure in charge of his country after success with Glasgow Warriors.

Even better, both sides will be prime candidates to take part in the opening game of the tournament, which given their Band 1 status we would currently edge going Ireland's way.

The 2019 RWC is set to be unlike any spectacle we have had before in the sport and being part of that first contest will be an enormous honour, and a stage for Ireland to set out their credentials after their disappointing campaign in 2015.

LOSERS

South Africa: The worst possible outcome. Grouping a Springboks side outscored 98-28 by the defending champions in last year's Rugby Championship couldn't really come at a worse time.

There is no Test side around lower on confidence and it's a blessing that Argentina were not the Band 3 side pulled out to compete in Pool B.

Now, with two and a half years to go there is no reason why Allister Coetzee cannot steady the ship and at least make South Africa competitive enough to push the All Blacks close in the group stages. Look at England's turnaround. Then again, in no way are England facing the same issues as South Africa when it comes to player resources.

England: Not as harsh a group as Australia and Wales in 2015, and Eddie Jones and his squad will rightly feel confident about topping Pool C and getting the easier quarter-final draw given their ranking and having won 18 out of 19 matches under Jones.

That said, there were certainly easier pools out there for England (Pools A and D). So much hinges however on what France and Argentina produce over the next couple of years.

Les Bleus are making progress under Guy Novès yet have some way still to go to, that defeat to a weakened Australia side last November sticking in the mind. And the (admittedly) knackered Argentina side we saw in last year's Rugby Championship and November Tests, who fell far short of the standards they set in 2015, need to recapture that spark that took them to the semi-finals.

If that happens the Pool C could be an all-time classic, and England will be sorely tested. Whether that is a positive for the knockout stages is up for debate. Possible Pool C qualifiers in the USA (Americas 1) and Samoa (Oceania 2) would make things interesting too.

Wales: As previously mentioned, Welsh confidence levels against Australia are so low that backing Warren Gatland's side to run the Wallabies close as they did in the last Rugby World Cup would be hard to do with any authority.

The stark difference in quality between the two teams' attacks last November was alarming; the Wallabies carving up and Wales trudging their way forward as we've seen so often. There were glimpses of attacking reform from Wales during the Six Nations, although not enough to suggest the 2011 semi-finalists are about to start playing Super Rugby (the Kiwi version anyway). 

Aside from New Zealand, the Wallabies were the one team Wales would have desperately wanted to avoid. No such luck.

BEST FIXTURES

New Zealand v South Africa: Rugby World Cup contests between these two in the past have tended to be classics and all neutrals will hope this will be no different. Who knows how high a level New Zealand might be playing at come 2019 with both Barretts and Saveas running the show, not forgetting Rieko Ioane.

Japan v Scotland: A re-match of one of the quality contests from the 2015 Rugby World Cup that has been overlooked by some. Japan were only a few days off their win over the Springboks when they fell to Scotland at Kingsholm.

Both sides have since met during last year's June Tests, the second Test won narrowly by Scotland. Amanaki Mafi up against Jonny Gray from the two packs could be sensational. Of the two games against Ireland and Scotland, it is likely Jamie Joseph will target this fixture as the one to win to make the last eight.

England v France: Le Crunch in the Rugby World Cup pool stages? Sign us up. France showed at Twickenham earlier this year that thanks to new additions Rémi Lamerat and Kévin Gourdon they are evolving nicely, as Guy Novès' coaching begins to sink in.

The pack, centred around a young tight five, has huge potential too, meaning by 2019 France could really push England up front.

France v Argentina: The opening game of the 2007 tournament when los Pumas shocked the world still sticks out as one of the greatest Rugby World Cup matches of all time, and then went on to win again the Bronze final.

The two teams have not met in the World Cup since then, avoiding each other in 2011 and 2015, and setting up a huge encounter in Pool C with plenty on the line. In what might be a battle of French power against Argentine flair, it feels right to get excited.

Georgia v Fiji (Oceania 1): Fiji's current status as the tenth best side in the world according to the rankings makes it fair to assume they will qualify in the Oceania 1 slot, which would set up a fascinating clash with Georgia in Pool D.

In terms of playing style the two sides are chalk and cheese, with Fiji's scrum still a long-term project for head coach John McKee but the quality of their wide play still phenomenal, although Georgia are noticeably trying to play with more adventure too.

There is so much talent available for Fiji, from battering rams Peceli Yato and Levani Botia to proven finishers in Josua Tuisova, Patrick Osborne and Nemani Nadolo, that they could be a real force with enough time to prepare.

by Ben Coles