Springboks to end Cardiff hoodoo against Wales

David Skippers

After winning their last four Tests against South Africa on home soil, Wales will be quietly confident when these sides face off in their Autumn Nations Series Test in Cardiff on Saturday.

Matches between these teams have been closely fought battles of late and although their previous encounter – at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan – saw the Springboks claiming a narrow victory, Wales will be determined to continue their winning run at the Principality Stadium.

It will not be easy, however. After coming off second best in most departments during a 54-16 defeat against New Zealand last week, Wales suffered a double setback when talismanic lock and captain Alun Wyn Jones and back-row Ross Moriarty were ruled out of the clash with South Africa due to shoulder injuries.

Losing that duo has been offset by the return of British and Irish Lions duo Dan Biggar and Louis Rees-Zammit. Their presence will add some zip to Wales’ attack and that should be especially handy against South Africa, who are arguably the best defensive side at Test level.

Although Wales’ home record against the Boks will boost them psychologically, they can ill afford to underestimate their visitors, who finished their recent Rugby Championship campaign with a morale-boosting victory over the All Blacks last month.

Last time they met

These teams were involved in what can best be described as an arm wrestle in a semi-final at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan. Both sides scored a try apiece with Damian de Allende crossing the whitewash for the Springboks and Josh Adams dotted down for Wales. Handre Pollard scored South Africa’s other points courtesy of four penalties and a conversion while Biggar added three penalties for Wales and Leigh Halfpenny succeeded with a conversion.

What they said

After last week’s big defeat against New Zealand, Wales kicking coach Neil Jenkins believes his team can bounce back against the Springboks.

“Against South Africa we need to be playing for the full 80 minutes because they will be no different to New Zealand,” he said.

“They play a different way, but they can be very ruthless and efficient in what they do.

“We certainly need to be ready. They play a certain type of rugby. It’s an effective type of rugby, but we need to be effective in the way we go about things and try and exert our own pressure on them.

“If we possibly can, we need to exert our kicking game on them as well. There will be a lot of aerial bombardments I am sure.

“There certainly will be from them and there will be a few from us as well. The battle of the air is huge in today’s rugby and you need to come out on the right side of it to win.”

Bok front-row Trevor Nyakane said the world champions are preparing themselves for a physical onslaught from their hosts and believes it would take an effective performance in all areas of the game to emerge victorious against the Six Nations champions.

“In international rugby one doesn’t get many opportunities to run the ball and score many tries,” he said.

“It’s going to be a hard forward battle and they also have physical backs, so it will come down to which team uses their opportunities the best.”

Players to watch

If Wales want to continue their impressive home form against the Boks then their forwards have to provide good front foot ball to their backs where players like Dan Biggar and Louis Rees-Zammit will be crucial to the cause. Biggar’s playmaking skills will be expected to build momentum on attack and his goal-kicking will also be crucial. Meanwhile, Rees-Zammit is one of the most exciting players in the game and he will be determined test the visitors’ defence with some strong attacking runs.

With experienced heads like regular captain Jones, Moriarty, Ken Owens and Taulupe Faletau not in their ranks, there will be plenty of pressure on Wales’ forwards and one player who will be expected to lead the charge up front is second-row Adam Beard. The 25-year-old has shown steady improvement in recent years and was rewarded with a Lions call-up earlier in the year where he was handed a Test cap in the final game against the Boks in South Africa. An excellent lineout operator, Beard will be his team’s go-to man in that department but he will also have to step up in his other core areas against physical opponents if Wales want to win this Test.

For South Africa, all eyes will be on the recalled backline trio of Damian Willemse, Jesse Kriel and Herschel Jantjies. At the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan, Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe and Faf de Klerk were the Springboks’ preferred choices at full-back, right wing and scrum-half respectively and that entire trio made big contributions during that triumphant campaign. Willemse, Kriel and Jantjies know they have big boots to fill but all three are genuine game-breakers and although they have hardly featured in the Boks’ run-on side since that triumphant campaign at the global showpiece, each one will be determined to make an impact on attack.

Main head-to-head

Although Wales came up short in most departments against the All Blacks, one player who enhanced his reputation in that match is openside flanker Taine Basham, who caught the eye with a fine all-round performance. The Dragons stalwart was only playing in his fourth Test but took the fight to the New Zealanders especially at the breakdown where he made a nuisance of himself. Good at winning turnovers and a solid defender, he goes comes up against Bok skipper Siya Kolisi, who, apart from doing well on the ground, also does well in other facets of play with his counter-rucking and ball carrying particularly impressive. The duel between these tearaways should be one of the game’s highlights.

Prediction

Although Wales will be boosted by the return of players like Biggar and Rees-Zammit, losing their captain Jones and Moriarty will be massive setbacks. The Boks received a shot in the arm after that Rugby Championship win over the All Blacks and will be highly motivated to make a positive start to their year-end tour. South Africa to win by eight points.

Previous results

2019: South Africa won 19-16 in Yokohama (RWC)
2018: Wales won 20-11 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 22-20 in Washington DC
2017: Wales won 24-22 in Cardiff
2016: Wales won 27-13 in Cardiff
2015: South Africa won 23-19 in London (RWC)
2014: Wales won 12-6 in Cardiff
2014: South Africa won 31-30 in Nelspruit

The teams

Wales: 15 Johnny McNicholl, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Jonathan Davies (c), 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Ellis Jenkins, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Rhys Carré
Replacements: 16 Bradley Roberts, 17 Wyn Jones, 18 WillGriff John, 19 Ben Carter, 20 Seb Davies, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Gareth Anscombe, 23 Liam Williams

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Jesse Kriel, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Kwagga Smith, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nché
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Jasper Wiese, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Frans Steyn

Date: Saturday, November 6
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17:30 GMT
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Andrew Brace (Ireland), James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Olly Hodges (Ireland)