Six Nations preview: Wales to suffer drastic slide down table as crown slips from their head

Lawrence Nolan
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Finally in our set of previews ahead of the Six Nations we examine the prospects of last year’s champions, Wayne Pivac’s Wales.

When Warren Gatland headed home and with many of his core players moving into their mid-30s, oft was the opinion proffered that Wales might be heading for a lean spell.

Granted, the pandemic disruption probably served as a refreshing break for some of those core players, but Pivac did a tremendous job both of freshening up the squad without disrupting, as well as bringing a whole new style and identity to the side. It took a bit of time, but the end product was the free-spirited dash to last year’s title.

The team is now short of a few older heads because of injury, but with a re-established identity and plenty of confidence, Wales can look forward to giving a decent defence of their crown, provided the injury curse doesn’t deepen.

Last year

The 2021 Six Nations was when Pivac’s project started falling properly into place. While they certainly benefitted from others’ indiscipline, the truism of only being able to play what’s in front of you was never more apt.

An opening-day win over Ireland was marked by the team’s comeback after the sending-off of Ireland’s Peter O’Mahony, while the second week win over Scotland was marked by similar: only after Zander Fagerson of Scotland had blotted his copybook did Wales really hit their stride, and victory was clinched with an outstanding solo try from Louis Rees-Zammit.

It was the third week win over England, a free-running, lung-busting match in which Wales scored their highest points total against the old enemy, when the team really hit its straps.

A routine thrashing of Italy in week four set up a Grand Slam tilt in Paris, but mental toughness deserted the team just when they needed it, and two yellow cards in the final frantic minutes saw the defence overloaded and France run in two late tries to deny the Grand Slam dream. But the title was secure.

This year

The schedule follows almost the same order, although it’s Italy on the final weekend this year and France in week four. And last year’s home matches are away, meaning Ireland and England at full houses in Dublin and London sandwich a home clash with Scotland in February.

Domestic form of the clubs, although rarely a perfect barometer for the national team, suggests Wales are still struggling with depth, but there’s no denying the quality in the ranks.

A lot will depend on how the team deals with those difficult away games, while should they come through them, the match at home to France will surely be a mouth-watering title decider.

Key players

With Alun Wyn Jones likely (who knows) to be ruled out of the entire tournament, much responsibility rests upon the broad shoulders of new captain and fly-half Dan Biggar. Rarely short of a few words in any game, the leadership role and vocal aspect thereof should be easy for him, but whether he can manage it with the correct balance will be a more important aspect to watch.

The area most perceived as Wales’ weakness is the front-row, where the focus will be on the experience of Dillon Lewis, Tomas Francis and Wyn Jones; none of the other props has been capped more than 16 times while the most experienced hooker, Ryan Elias, has only 23 caps. How this relatively green lot in red measures up will be crucial.

Quieter than Biggar, Jonathan Davies in the centres will also have a critical leadership role in the squad.

Players to watch

He’s been less outstanding this year, but big things are expected of wing Louis Rees-Zammit every time he gets the ball in a square centimetre of space. His try last weekend for club side Gloucester was nothing short of outrageous.

In the back-row, the re-emergence of Ellis Jenkins from a long-term injury nightmare in November was a story as heart-warming as it was exciting for the fans, and with Justin Tipuric and Josh Navidi both out for the foreseeable, Jenkins has a great chance to stake his claim for a permanent spot.

Keep an eye on the half-backs too. Pivac likes a fizzy scrum-half and in Kieran Hardy, Tomos Williams and Gareth Davies, he has three shaken cans of pop ready to go.

Prospects

There was so much positive to take from last year, but the questions about depth and the ability to grind out wins, as well as run them out, hang over the Welsh team like the anvil in the cartoons.

The matches won’t lack for excitement, and nor is this side a bad one, but the impression is that the other teams have developed and got both stronger and tighter while Wales might have been operating at peak performance last year.

The big question is whether Wales can kick on from last year as others appear to have done. If so, then the prospects are good, but with a much harder schedule to deal with, as well as two away games in front of hostile fans, should Wales not be able to maintain their progress it could be a tough tournament. Fifth place.

Fixtures

Saturday, February 5 v Ireland (Aviva Stadium)
Saturday, February 12 v Scotland (Principality Stadium)
Saturday, February 26 v England (Twickenham)
Saturday, March 11 v France (Principality Stadium)
Saturday, March 19 v Italy (Principality Stadium)

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