Six Nations preview: Ireland to prove too strong for Wales in Dublin

This year’s Six Nations gets underway at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday when Ireland host defending champions Wales in what promises to be a thrilling contest.

After impressing during last year’s Autumn Nations Series, the home side will fancy their chances of making a positive start to this year’s Championship against a Wales outfit who are decimated by injuries.

The absentees in the Welsh camp include the likes of regular captain Alun Wyn Jones and other senior players in Justin Tipuric, Ken Owens, Leigh Halfpenny and Josh Navidi, who have all been ruled out for the entire Six Nations.

Added to that are other stalwarts like George North and Taulupe Faletau, who are also battling injuries which will keep them sidelined during the tournament’s opening rounds and they are doubtful to be in action towards the latter stages of the competition. For now, Wales will have to face the Irish without those experienced players which makes their task a challenging one.

With Wales fielding an understrength team, Ireland will be brimming with confidence as they have named a strong matchday squad filled with plenty of exciting attacking players.

Under the guidance of head coach Andy Farrell they come into the Six Nations in a rich vein of form after impressing during the autumn and that, and the fact that they have won the last eight matches on the bounce – as well as their previous four Tests against Wales in Dublin – makes them favourites to start their 2022 campaign with another victory in their own backyard.

Last time they met

The sides met during the opening round of last year’s Six Nations as well with the only difference from this year’s fixture being the venue which was at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium. Home ground advantage worked in Wales’ favour as they sealed a 21-16 victory and they were aided by a red card issued to Ireland flanker Peter O’Mahony, who was sent off in the 14th minute for a dangerous clear-out on Tomas Francis. Despite playing with 14 men for most of the match, Ireland were competitive for long periods, although the home side held a slight edge throughout. In the end, Wales outscored Ireland by two tries to one with North and Louis Rees-Zammit crossing the whitewash for the hosts and their other points came via the boot of Halfpenny, who succeeded with three penalties and a conversion. Tadhg Beirne scored Ireland’s try while Johnny Sexton added two penalties and a conversion and Billy Burns also slotted a three-pointer off the kicking tee.

What they said

Although Wales’ long injury list means they will not be at full strength for this fixture, Ireland captain Sexton is preparing himself for a tough challenge.

“We haven’t spoken too much about who Wales are missing. We spoke about who they’ve got. They played November with a lot of the same injuries and picked up some good results and good performances,” he said.

“They had some injuries through the Six Nations last year and they ended up winning it. We haven’t spoken about it too much.

“All we’re doing is preparing to play against a very good Welsh team that has had a great run of form over the last year. That is honestly what we’ve seen. We see a big, tough test ahead and that’s what we’re preparing for.

“The guys that are injured, of course, have big reputations because they’ve played multiple Tests for their country. They’ve performed week in, week out.

“These other guys that are coming in are at the start of their journey and could go on to have the same careers as the guys ahead of them. There’s not one ounce of complacency in our squad.”

Although Wales head into this match as the underdogs, their head coach, Wayne Pivac, is quietly confident his side can do well in Dublin.

“The boys have trained well in the last week or so – as well as we could expect really,” he said. “So we’re in a pretty good place going into Saturday’s game.

“A lot of the team that won that competition won’t be there in Dublin. But the guys who will be there, we believe will represent us really well.

“Where we are with the bookies, we’re probably in the same position we were last year. We’ve everything to gain and nothing to lose.

“That’s the attitude, going out there and expressing ourselves. Every Six Nations everyone wants to win, and we are no different.

“We want to go out there, and each individual wants to put their best foot forward. They know there’s a lot at stake as defending champions.

“We worked hard to get that title last year, and we’d like to be in a position to try to do that again. It means week one we’ve got to work very hard to get a result, and then back that up in week two.”

Players to watch

For Ireland, all eyes will be on debutant flyer Mack Hansen, who will make his Test debut after several outstanding performances for Connacht in the United Rugby Championship (URC). Blessed with plenty of pace, Hansen knows his way to the line and his try-scoring instincts have been superb for his province. The 23-year-old is currently sitting pretty atop the URC’s try-scoring charts with six five-pointers from nine appearances and will be determined to continue in that vein in the Test arena.

Ireland’s forwards have been central to their excellent form of late and one player who will be determined to make a positive impression is Tadhg Furlong, who is arguably the world’s best tighthead prop. The 29-year-old is the prototype of the modern day front-row, who shines in his core duties with his powerful scrummaging, strong defensive work and excellent ball carrying ability particularly impressive. Furlong will be at the forefront of Ireland’s onslaught and will be prominent in laying a solid platform up front for exciting players like Hansen out wide.

Wales might be without a host of their first choice players but they still have several outstanding players in their ranks, none more so than young speedster Louis Rees-Zammit. The 2021 British and Irish Lions tourist turned 21 earlier in the week but despite his tender age, he has played with a maturity beyond his years. Rees-Zammit’s undoubted strength is his searing pace but he is also capable of stepping off both feet and has an astute rugby brain. All those attributes make him a genuine attacking threat and he is sure to test Ireland’s defence.

Another player of whom much is expected is experienced back Josh Adams, who will line up in the number 13 jersey in this Test. This will be Adams’ first international start at outside centre and although he is a brilliant attacker with a proven try-scoring record, it’s his defensive work which will be in the spotlight. Defending in the outside centre channel is very different and more demanding than out on the wing and Adams’ defensive duties will be put to the test by Ireland’s strike runners.

Main head-to-head

With the vastly experienced Jones sidelined with a shoulder injury, Pivac has handed the captaincy to fly-half Dan Biggar and his direct opponent in this fixture is Ireland’s vastly experienced number 10 and skipper Johnny Sexton. Both players are excellent playmakers, who have been crucial to their respective teams’ causes and this duel pits the first choice pivots for the British and Irish Lions tour to South Africa (Biggar) in 2021 and their trip to New Zealand (Sexton) in 2017 against each other. The pair possess great skill-sets and that coupled with their leadership skills should be major contributing factors in this Test’s outcome.

Prediction

As the Six Nations’ defending champions, Wales come into this Test with plenty of pride and although they will be competitive, especially during the early exchanges, Ireland will gain the upper hand as the match progresses and will prove too strong in the end. Ireland to win by eight points.

Previous results

2021: Wales won 21-16 in Cardiff
2020: Ireland won 32-9 in Dublin
2020: Ireland won 24-14 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 19-10 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 22-17 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 25-7 in Cardiff
2018: Ireland won 37-27 in Dublin
2017: Wales won 22-9 in Cardiff

The teams

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Johnny Sexton (c), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Caelan Doris, 5 James Ryan, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Ronan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Ryan Baird, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 James Hume

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Josh Adams, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Louis Rees-Zammit, 10 Dan Biggar (c), 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Ellis Jenkins, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Seb Davies, 20 Ross Moriarty, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Owen Watkin

Date: Saturday, February 5
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 14:15 GMT
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Matthieu Raynal (France), Nic Berry (Australia)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)