Six Nations preview: France to show title credentials with victory over Johnny Sexton-less Ireland

Every match in the Six Nations is important but this seems particularly significant. It is only Round Two but a fixture which sees two of the pre-tournament favourites collide will no doubt be decisive in the outcome of the Championship.

The French, in the cauldron of the Stade de France and with the majority of the 80,000 people behind them, will certainly be odds-on and those chances only increased thanks to the injury to Johnny Sexton.

Sexton may be advancing in years and moving closer to retirement but he remains Ireland’s best fly-half and was utterly superb in their dismantling of Wales last weekend.

His replacement, Munster’s talented playmaker Joey Carbery, is on paper a fine replacement having finally overcome the injuries which have hampered his career over the past few years.

He is in the mould of the Leinsterman, an attacking pivot and one that likes to attack the line and bring his runners into play, but you can’t substitute experience or, quite simply, the 36-year-old’s game understanding. There was a real fluidity to Sexton’s play in the Six Nations opener and he made the Irish tick, regularly creating holes in the Welsh rearguard.

Carbery therefore has a pretty unenviable task in trying to replicate that, especially away from home at one of toughest places in world rugby to go. As the pivot showed on his debut against New Zealand, and often throughout his time in both a red and green shirt, he rarely – if ever – fears the occasion, but he has a mightily tough task on his hands.

France were not exactly convincing against Italy but, in difficult conditions at the rain-soaked Stade de France, it was a good match to blow the cobwebs away. There were some fine individual performances in the shape of hat-trick hero Gabin Villiere, number eight Gregory Alldritt, star back five forward Cameron Woki and front-row duo Cyril Baille and Julien Marchand, but as a collective they weren’t quite on song.

Fabien Galthie will certainly want more from his world-class half-backs Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, who were surprisingly quiet against the Italians. However, as Les Bleus displayed in the Autumn Nations Series, they can put it together when it matters.

Galthie’s men were pretty poor in overcoming Argentina and Georgia but when New Zealand came to town, they lit up Paris and produced a memorable performance in dominating the three-time world champions.

On that day, Dupont and Ntamack were magnificent and you feel those two will have a decisive impact on Saturday, particularly with Ireland’s linchpin Sexton on the sidelines.

Last time they met

A confident France, who went into the 2021 tournament with expectations of claiming the title, produced a good display to see off Ireland 15-13 and go two from two. It wasn’t perfect from the visitors by any means, but they were the ones that created the moments of quality. That was shown in both of the tries as Charles Ollivon and Damian Penaud touched down to give Les Bleus a 15-3 advantage after 55 minutes. Although Ronan Kelleher crossed the whitewash to provide Andy Farrell’s men with hope of coming back, Galthie’s men held on for the victory. Ireland certainly built on that improved effort, however, and have not lost since that clash almost a year ago.

What they said

France boss Galthie is not expecting Ireland to change their style, despite seeing key playmaker Sexton withdraw from the visiting side due to injury.

“We worked on Ireland and prepared for the game with him at fly-half,” Galthie said of Sexton.

“What we saw against Wales (last weekend) and New Zealand (in the autumn) he was their playmaker, their lead, their captain.

“We think this team are very structured, they have a very serene gameplan, they will keep that style of attack.

“We imagine they will keep the same fundamentals, attack and defence-wise despite the absence of Johnny Sexton.”

Meanwhile, Ireland head coach Farrell believes that the absence of Sexton can prove beneficial to the team in the long run.

“We’re not just one player, it never has been, it never will be, and we want to grow as a group and we make sure we approach every game in that manner anyway,” said Farrell.

“Obviously Johnny is an important member of our group.

“Being skipper of the side, he’s integral to how we push forward with many parts of our environment but at the same time this is just about the group.

“It’s a great development for us as a team going forward as well and we still expect ourselves to be at our best in Paris on Saturday.

“We’re gutted for Johnny. It means so much to him to captain his side and to play in games like this.

“At the same time, he realises it’s an opportunity for us to grow as a group and that’s exciting within itself.”

Players to watch

Where else to start but at half-back? Reigning World Rugby Player of the Year Antoine Dupont was solid in the clash against Italy but the Toulouse star was certainly quieter than usual and will want to play far better this weekend. That could also be said of his playmaking partner Romain Ntamack, who struggled to really influence proceedings in the Round One triumph.

Much of Les Bleus’ good work interestingly was away from those two, with the pack in particular producing some really nice moments. Gregory Alldritt, after a dip in form, looked back to his best, while Paul Willemse and the outstanding Cameron Woki combined superbly in the second-row, but they will be challenged by Ireland’s locking pair.

Tadhg Beirne took some time to settle in at Test level but, now that he has, the Munster second-row is showing all of his skills. After a superb 2021, Beirne carried on where he left off in their Six Nations opener, showing great variety in his play, from solid set-piece work to excellence at the breakdown and some deft touches in the loose. He has usurped James Ryan as Ireland’s premier lock, with the 25-year-old not at the level he was in 2018 and early 2019. Ryan, who has taken over the captaincy from Sexton, was, however, very effective last weekend and Farrell will want more of the same from the lock.

If Ireland can set that platform up front then it will certainly take more of the pressure off Joey Carbery, who as mentioned comes in for their injured fly-half. Carbery has been in good form this season, despite another injury – this time to his elbow – hampering his preparations for the Six Nations, and will look to impose his attacking game on proceedings. The Munsterman is an exciting player to watch but France will certainly look to get at him.

Main head-to-head

Two of the best props in the world face off when Cyril Baille and Tadhg Furlong lock horns on Saturday. Both players are outstanding scrummagers but actually impressed most in the loose in their opening encounters. They are very much the definition of ‘modern day props’, who are technically astute in the set-piece but also offer so much with ball in hand.

Furlong is the slightly more dextrous of the two, with his hands and surprisingly fast footwork giving Ireland so many attacking options, while Baille has an incredible ability to drive through tackles and stay on his feet. However, both players will ultimately be judged on their scrummaging work and that first duel in the set-piece will certainly set the tone in the match.

Prediction

We always felt France were slight favourites anyway but the injury to Sexton has further tilted the scales in the hosts’ favour. It is nothing against Carbery, who is a mightily fine player, but, due to Ireland’s inability to find a reliable back-up and the fact that the Leinsterman is still playing some incredible rugby, his absence is a big blow for Farrell’s charges. France by 8.

Previous results

2021: France won 15-13 in Dublin
2020: France won 35-27 in Paris
2019: Ireland won 26-14 in Dublin
2018: Ireland won 15-13 in Paris
2017: Ireland won 19-9 in Dublin
2016: France won 10-9 in Paris
2015: Ireland won 24-9 in Cardiff
2015: Ireland won 18-11 in Dublin

The teams

France: 15 Melvyn Jaminet, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Gabin Villiere, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Francois Cros, 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Paul Willemse, 4 Cameron Woki, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 18 Demba Bamba, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Thibaud Flament, 21 Dylan Cretin, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Thomas Ramos

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Joey Carbery, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Caelan Doris, 5 James Ryan (c), 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Ronan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Carty, 23 Robbie Henshaw

Date: Saturday, February 12
Venue: Stade de France
Kick-off: 17:45 local (16:45 GMT)
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)

READ MORE: Six Nations video preview with Ireland favourite Shane Byrne and ex-England hooker George Chuter

France v Ireland big game preview

Shane Byrne and George Chuter join James While to preview the big Six Nations meeting in Paris.