Six Nations: Are France untouchable at the top of the table?

Stan Wilson

As was predicted before the Six Nations Championship began, France have asserted themselves at the summit of the competition with just two games left to play.

The general consensus was that Ireland were the biggest threat to their Grand Slam but, with Andy Farrell’s side disposed of, England are the only threat left to play.

France have had a near perfect tournament so far, having missed out on only one winning bonus point meaning they sit at the top of the table on 14 points while Ireland are at second place on 11 with England just behind on 10.

With only two games to go, it is looking almost certain that they will win the Six Nations Championship and perhaps even the Grand Slam…

Wales, a team who have been plagued by injury, are up next and will serve as just a stepping stone for the French having scored only five tries all tournament.

They will put up a fight as they did against England, but France should win relatively easily.

Then the following week, Les Bleus’ Grand Slam (and maybe even Championship) chances will fall into the hands of England boss Eddie Jones.

The two likeliest scenarios for France are…

They beat both Wales and England

A Grand Slam for France, with Ireland likely finishing second, depending on bonus points in their game with England and then the same with Scotland the week after. This is by far the most likely scenario going off what we have seen from the so-far-invincible French.

(This one is a bit more complex).

They beat Wales but fall to England in the final round

The Grand Slam dream would be over, but France would still likely win due to the fact they have only dropped one winning bonus so far, and will likely keep it that way when they face Wales this weekend.

The only way England could win without it going down to points difference with France is by gaining bonus-point wins over both Ireland and France which we can all agree is very unlikely for the young side.

Andy Farrell’s men are on 11 points right now and depending on bonus points – they would have to be winning ones as they can’t afford to lose – they could still win overall despite losing to France if, and only if, they get more bonus points than Les Bleus in this scenario (as they would have an equal amount of wins).

The schedules will play a role

England
(Still to play Ireland and France)

England have the toughest run of games possible over the next two weeks as they face the top two teams, having faced all of the non-contenders earlier in the tournament.

They will not be favoured in either, and rightfully so considering they lost to Scotland –  who the French tore to shreds – and barely escaped with a win versus a Welsh team who Ireland dissected in the opening round.

In a rebuild year for England, their likely finishing spot of third is respectable, giving them plenty of room to improve in the future.

Ireland
(Still to play England and Scotland)

As has been mentioned, Ireland are still contenders, despite losing to France, but they aren’t in control of their fate as they’re relying on a French loss to get themselves back in contention.

The young English side should in theory be no match for Ireland but the X-factor that is Marcus Smith has the potential to sculpt the outcome of this game for Jones’ men should he find rhythm.

France
(Still to play Wales and England)

Wales will prove no match, possibly giving Galthie the chance to make replacements earlier in the game to allow key players like Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Gregory Alldritt and Julien Marchand a less tiring week before the all-important potential Grand Slam game versus England.

Wales’ defence was fantastic last week at Twickenham, but will it be a match for the Dupont-led French attack? Probably not.

Final Six Nations table prediction

1. France
2. Ireland
3. England
4. Scotland
5. Wales
6. Italy

READ MORE: Loose Pass on Ireland’s sloppiness in the Six Nations and inconsistent Wales

 

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Planet Rugby's Team of Round Three

France dominate selection in Planet Rugby's Six Nations Team of the Week after they powered to an exciting win in Scotland.