Seven storylines to watch in the end-of-year Tests

As the northern hemisphere tours begin in earnest, with the best in Europe facing the Rugby Championship giants, we take a look at the stories to follow.

A new direction from England

Out go the old and in come the new. Well, sort of. Head coach Eddie Jones has caused a stir by dropping stalwarts George Ford and the Vunipola brothers for the Autumn Nations Series, with the likes of Marcus Smith and either Alex Dombrandt or Sam Simmonds set to play a prominent role in the upcoming Tests. Of course, Jones may well prefer Tom Curry at number eight, but the overall squad suggests that Jones is looking to introduce some fresh faces over the next month.

Smith will almost certainly be involved, whether from the start or off the bench, and he will be key in Jones’ new England. There are also a couple of exciting scrum-halves in the form of Harry Randall and Raffi Quirke, who will battle for a place in the 23, albeit the experienced Ben Youngs is likely to start. No doubt the core of the squad from the past few years will remain, but this campaign being seen by the England boss as a transition phase ahead of the World Cup where a number of youngsters can ink their names into the 23 for the next couple of years.

Another New Zealand clean sweep?

The All Blacks don’t lose that often anyway but they have been particularly successful in Europe. It started during the Graham Henry era in 2004 as they regularly dispatched their northern hemisphere opponents with ease. They didn’t suffer any end-of-year Test defeats until 2012, where they succumbed to England, and only two further losses – both to Ireland – have followed since then. However, is this the weakest New Zealand side to visit Europe since Henry took charge?

They have certainly improved after a mediocre 2020, with Ian Foster’s men winning five of their six Rugby Championship matches, but the All Blacks look more susceptible this time around. Wales may well struggle on Saturday, with a number of their top players out due to the game falling outside the international window, while Italy will be swatted aside easily enough. The final two games will be their big test, though, with Ireland and France both stacked with quality and aiming to put away a New Zealand team that are at the end of a long season.

An opening at scrum-half for Springbok pretenders

Faf de Klerk has been the man entrusted since 2018 and the Sale Shark did a fine job of steering them to a World Cup title. He also played a significant part in their British and Irish Lions series win and has remained the first choice half-back until his recent injury put him out for up to five months. As a result, De Klerk will miss the Autumn Nations Series and that opens the door for either Herschel Jantjies or Cobus Reinach, who have both been knocking on the door.

There has been criticism of the Sale scrum-half from some supporters but there is no doubt that he offers the type of control and accuracy the Springbok game plan requires. Although Jantjies and Reinach are arguably better around the fringes, Jacques Nienaber will demand they do their core jobs well. If one or both of them does that then they could displace De Klerk who, despite being the man best suited to that role, hasn’t been at his absolute best since the World Cup win.

Welsh woes

It’s been a constant theme for Wales over the past decade that, irrespective of their successes in the Six Nations, they quite simply can’t string together consistent wins against the southern hemisphere giants. Head coach Wayne Pivac, who takes charge of his first end-of-year Test series which includes the ‘big three’, will look to change that over the coming month.

They are unfortunately hampered in their first match against New Zealand, with the clash falling outside the international window and therefore depriving them of their English-based players, and you would expect a difficult 80 minutes this weekend. It would be some result if a depleted Welsh side were to upset the All Blacks, which leaves matches against South Africa and Australia in November. Pivac’s men certainly have the quality at their disposal but that has also been the case in previous years and their performances have often fallen short.

The impact of the captaincy on Antoine Dupont

The scrum-half is regarded as one of the best players in the world and he is now the France captain after an injury to Charles Ollivon ruled the regular skipper out of the upcoming Tests. Dupont is nailed on first choice, now an experienced international and the heartbeat of the side, so it rather makes sense to give him the leadership responsibilities, but is it too much for the Toulouse star to take on?

As one of the prime decision-makers, someone that in his position is always involved in the match, it is a lot of added pressure. Dupont also doesn’t do the role too often for his club side – Julien Marchand is Les Rouge et Noir’s regular skipper – and that may be another issue. The captaincy has always been important in rugby but it is becoming increasingly crucial as they look to develop a rapport with the referees. The 24-year-old has the self-confidence to be a success but it is a huge challenge for the superstar half-back.

Revitalised Australia’s next challenge

After four successive victories to end the Rugby Championship, the Wallabies’ next test is to build on that in the Autumn Nations Series against the best the northern hemisphere has to offer. Over recent years Australia have struggled in Europe, including a 53-24 hammering at the hands of Scotland in 2017.

They have improved under the guidance of Dave Rennie this season but they have been handed a blow ahead of the tour with the news that Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi and Sean McMahon won’t be joining them. Cooper and Kerevi in particular have played key roles in their resurgence, so it will be interesting to see how Rennie deals with their absence. James O’Connor has looked good coming off the bench, while Hunter Paisami is a talent, but it has been an unnecessary distraction leading into the tour.

Ireland’s age-old fly-half conundrum

Johnny Sexton will once again go into the upcoming Tests as the first choice fly-half but head coach Andy Farrell will hope Joey Carbery and Harry Byrne step up to put pressure on the great pivot. Just two years out from the World Cup, the Irish are dangerously close on having to rely on Sexton, who will be 38 in 2023, for the global tournament.

That is obviously not an issue providing he maintains his form and fitness, but Farrell will need some genuine challengers for the shirt should Sexton not make it. Carbery has been widely tipped to take over from the Irish legend, but serious injuries have hampered his progress, while the other option next month, Leinster youngster Byrne, is still inexperienced. He does have significant talent and has impressed whenever featuring for the Dubliners, but Sexton remains first choice for both province and country at the moment.

Has Dupont taken on too much?

Scrum-half Antoine Dupont has been handed the France captaincy following an injury to regular skipper Charles Ollivon.