Scotland to return to winning ways against Japan

David Skippers

Scotland and Japan will both be determined to finish the year with a bang when they face off in their Autumn Nations Series Test at Murrayfield on Saturday.

Gregor’s Townsend’s charges started their end-of-year campaign on a high with a one-sided triumph over Tonga before sealing a shock victory over a highly rated Wallabies outfit.

That set them up nicely for last weekend’s clash with the Springboks and they approached that encounter with plenty of confidence, but the world champions proved too strong in the end.

That defeat has seen Townsend ringing the changes for their clash with Japan, although they still have an experienced core with the likes of captain British and Irish Lions representatives Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell and Hamish Watson in their run-on side.

Meanwhile, Japan’s previous Autumn Nations Series Test against tier one opposition was one head coach Jamie Joseph and his players would want to forget as they delivered a poor performance against Ireland two weeks ago and eventually suffered a humiliating 60-5 in Dublin.

That result came as a surprise as the Brave Blossoms have shown in recent years that they are one of the most improved teams in the international arena, as illustrated by their position in the world rankings where they have consistently occupied a spot amongst the world’s top 10 teams.

That defeat to Ireland would have been a rude awakening for Japan as they put in a sterling performance before going down 32-23 to Australia in an entertaining Test in Oita last month.

The Brave Blossoms were in action last weekend and sealed a 38-25 win over minnows Portugal and they know a much improved performance will be needed if they want to upset the apple cart against the Scots.

Last time they met

The previous encounter between these teams was an exciting pool game at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Yokohama with the winners set to advance to the tournament’s quarter-finals. It was a momentous day for Japan as they sealed a 28-21 win and, in doing so, became the first tier two nation to qualify for the global showpiece’s knockout rounds since 2007. The home side outscored the Scots four tries to three with Kenki Fukuoka leading the way with a brace while Kotaro Matsushima and Keita Inagaki also dotted down and Yu Tamura added four conversions. For Scotland, Russell, WP Nel and Zander Fagerson scored tries which were converted by Greig Laidlaw (2) and Russell.

What they said

After that home defeat to the world champions, the Scots are confident of bouncing back against the Brave Blossoms.

“We have had a positive week as a squad and want to close out our Autumn Nations Series campaign with an improved performance against a Japan side we expect to challenge us from the outset on Saturday,” said Townsend.

“This group of players have another opportunity to represent their country this weekend and show the progress we have made as a group over the past four weeks.”

Meanwhile, Joseph expects a tough challenge and believes the back-row battle will be crucial.

“We’ve had a good week in terms of our preparation and have enjoyed being back in Edinburgh.

“Scotland have really improved since we last played them at the World Cup. They’ve played a lot of Test matches, with two Six Nations and some very strong performance in the lead up to this weekend.

“Their players who were quite young during the World Cup are now senior members of their team and they have changed their game a lot. They’re quite keen to run the ball, which is the way forward.

“We’re expecting a big contest in the loose forwards, where Scotland have shown a lot of improvement. Their back row are strong in defence and at the breakdown, and are very good at jackaling and slowing the ball down.

“We’ll have to be very accurate at the breakdown, but we have an experienced back row in Leitch, Lappies [Pieter Labuschagne] and Himeno, so it’s going to be a big part of the match.”

Players to watch

Much of Scotland’s success stems from the performances of experienced backline duo Stuart Hogg and Finn Russell and if they are on song then it will be a tough day at the office for Japan. Full-back Hogg was in fine form against the Boks and became Scotland’s equal top try-scorer in Tests after crossing for two-five pointers. He will be determined to break that record on Saturday and don’t be surprised if Russell has a hand in helping him achieve that goal as the Racing 92 fly-half is one of the game’s games best playmakers, who can unlock the meanest defences with a moment of brilliance.

He might be in the twilight of his career and no longer be the Brave Blossoms’ captain, but Michael Leitch‘s return is sure to boost the morale of his team-mates as he is a genuine legend of Japanese rugby. The 33-year-old has a high work-rate on defence and attack and with the Brave Blossoms being the underdogs, Leitch’s experience will prove invaluable.

Another player who will be have a big role to play for the Brave Blossoms is excitement machine Kotaro Matsushima, who has the ability to wreak havoc on attack with his outstanding skill-set. The flyer was one of the surprise packages at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan and has continued to shine for his country on the international stage as well as French outfit Clermont Auvergne. If he finds himself in space with ball in hand, it will be a tough challenge for the Scottish defence to keep him in check.

Main head-to-head

Although there are several mouth-watering duels across the park, we expect the back-row battle to play a key role in this game’s outcome. Scotland boast experience flankers in Hamish Watson, Jamie Ritchie, who will be prominent at the breakdowns, while rookie number eight Josh Bayliss will be keen to make a positive impression in his first Test start. They will will tested to the limit by Leitch, Brave Blossoms skipper fellow flanker Pieter Labuschagne and number eight Kazuki Himeno. Leitch and Labuschagne are excellent in tandem – especially on the ground – while Himeno is an outstanding attacker who will be expected to give his side much needed momentum with some strong carries.

Prediction

Although Scotland have made several changes to their run-on side, it won’t be too disruptive and Japan are not in the class of the Springboks. Scotland to win by 15 points.

Previous results

2019: Japan won 28-21 in Yokohama
2016: Scotland won 21-16 in Tokyo
2016: Scotland won 26-13 in Aichi
2015: Scotland won 45-10 in Gloucester (RWC)
2013: Scotland won 42-17 in Edinburgh
2004: Scotland won 100-8 in Perth
2003: Scotland won 32-11 in Townsville (RWC)
1991: Scotland won 47-9 in Edinburgh (RWC)

The teams

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg (c), 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Josh Bayliss, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Jamie Bhatti
Replacements: 16 Stuart McInally, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Javan Sebastian, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Dylan Richardson, 21 Matt Fagerson, 22 George Horne, 23 Blair Kinghorn

Japan: 15 Ryohei Yamanaka, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Shogo Nakano, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 Siosaia Fifita, 10 Rikiya Matsuda, 9 Yutaka Nagare, 8 Kazuki Himeno, 7 Pieter Labuschagne (c), 6 Michael Leitch, 5 James Moore, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 3 Asaeli Ai Valu, 2 Atsushi Sakate, 1 Craig Millar
Replacements: 16 Kosuke Horikoshi, 17 Keita Inagaki, 18 Shinnosuke Kakinaga, 19 Ben Gunter, 20 Tevita Tatafu, 21 Naoto Saito, 22 Yu Tamura, 23 Dylan Riley

Date: Saturday, November 20
Venue: Murrayfield
Kick-off: 13:00 GMT
Referee: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams (New Zealand), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Stuart Berry (South Africa)