Scotland to end losing run against Wales

David Skippers

Wales' Alun Wyn Jones (left) and Scotland's Stuart Hogg pose for a photo with the Six Nations Trophy during the Guinness Six Nations launch at Tobacco Dock, London.

Little may realistically be on the line for Wales and Scotland as they open the final round of the delayed 2020 Six Nations with the title out of reach, but this encounter is still important for both sides.

Ireland’s bonus-point victory over Italy last weekend ended the hopes of Gregor Townsend’s men, so focus has switched from potential silverware to finishing the competition on a high.

The Scots know that a victory in Llanelli will represent a positive championship following the disappointment of last year’s World Cup. Townsend has had his critics, particularly after what transpired in Japan, but a rare success in Wales would silence some of those doubters.

They will fancy their chances too. Against the Welsh, in the cauldron of the Principality Stadium, the Scots have previously struggled, but that could all change on Saturday. Since Wayne Pivac has taken charge, the 2019 Grand Slam winners have faltered, with their defence a huge concern ahead of this encounter.

Shaun Edwards was one those to depart following Warren Gatland’s decision to step down and there have been far too many holes for opposition teams to exploit. France certainly enjoyed the space afforded to them by Wales last weekend and the Scottish playmakers will no doubt be looking forward to this contest.

Change in style

It could well be the more expansive style preferred by Pivac which has led to their defensive decline, but Edwards remains one of the best coaches in the world and does not seem to have been adequately replaced.

Despite only just taking the role, the former Scarlets head honcho is a man under increasing pressure. Wales have secured just one victory in this year’s Six Nations and the team must defeat Scotland if they are to save their boss from the wrath of their supporters.

Usually, overcoming Scotland at home would be a foregone conclusion but, with the match taking place behind closed doors in Llanelli, they will not have that fervent support behind them.

There is still plenty of talent in the Welsh ranks and it will be a momentous day for captain Alun Wyn Jones, who breaks the all-time Test cap record, currently held by Richie McCaw, but they have not played well in 2020.

Scotland, who have been boosted by a couple of South Africa-born powerhouses and the return of Finn Russell, sense their chance to beat Wales away from home for the first time since 2002. They are not necessarily the most reliable team when expectations are higher, but there is certainly cause for optimism this time around.

Players to watch:

For Wales: With Rhys Webb ruled out through injury, Gareth Davies has been recalled to the starting line-up and the Scarlets stalwart will be desperate to cement his place in the run-on side with a polished display. The 30-year-old will be determined to put his team on the front-foot by delivering a crisp service to his outside backs and will also try to keep Scotland’s defenders on their toes with his sniping breaks around the fringes of the rucks and mauls. Meanwhile, it will also be a special moment for the home side’s captain, Alun Wyn Jones, due to that aforementioned landmark. It’s been 14 years since his Test debut but, despite his advancing years, Jones is still one of the game’s best second-rowers and, as usual, he will be at the forefront of Wales’ charge in this encounter.

For Scotland: If Scotland want to finish on the winning side in this fixture for the first time since 2017 then their two star players, Stuart Hogg and Finn Russell will have to be at their best. As the team’s captain (Hogg) and chief playmaker (Russell), the duo’s decision making will have a huge bearing on the outcome of this match. On current form, Hogg is arguably the best full-back in the world and he will be looking to give his side much-needed momentum with his attacking forays from the back. He also possesses a booming boot which he uses to good effect with raking touch-finders and to land long-range goal-kicks. Not far behind him is Russell, who has the ability to change the course of a match with a moment of attacking brilliance. If he receives good front-foot ball from his forwards, he should have a big impact on this encounter.

Head-to-head: With both sides employing expansive game-plans, don’t be surprised if this is a free flowing game with plenty of end-to-end action. And if that occurs, it should bring the wide men into the game with the showdown between Josh Adams of Wales and Scotland’s Darcy Graham set to be one of the standout battles. Both are outstanding finishers with Adams returning from last year’s Rugby World Cup in Japan with his reputation enhanced after finishing as the leading try-scorer at the global showpiece. Meanwhile, Graham will be chomping at the bit after missing Scotland’s earlier Six Nations games due to a knee injury sustained in January. Although Adams is the bigger and more powerful player, Graham is an excitement machine whose quick feet is his greatest weapon and he will not be daunted by the size of the Welshman.

Previous results:

2019: Wales won 18-11 in Edinburgh
2018: Wales won 21-10 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 34-7 in Cardiff
2017: Scotland won 29-13 in Edinburgh
2016: Wales won 27-23 in Cardiff
2015: Wales won 26-23 in Edinburgh
2014: Wales won 51-3 in Cardiff
2013: Wales won 28-18 in Edinburgh

Prediction: The Scots’ record in Wales is abysmal but it has to end at some point and they may not get a better opportunity. Pivac’s men are playing some decent rugby with ball in hand, but there are currently a number of weaknesses which the visitors now have the ability to exploit. Scotland by 4.

The teams:

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Liam Williams, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Owen Watkin, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Sam Parry, 17 Wyn Jones, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Cory Hill, 20 James Davies, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 Rhys Patchell, 23 Nick Tompkins

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg (c), 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Chris Harris, 12 James Lang, 11 Blair Kinghorn, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Blade Thomson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Rory Sutherland
Replacements: 16 Stuart McInally, 17 Oli Kebble, 18 Simon Berghan, 19 Ben Toolis, 20 Cornell du Preez, 21 Scott Steele, 22 Adam Hastings, 23 Duhan van der Merwe

Date: Saturday, October 31
Venue: Parc y Scarlets
Kick-off: 14:15 GMT
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)

 

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