Scotland to come out on top against Ireland

Scotland will be eager to end a five-game losing streak against Ireland when they meet in the Six Nations at Murrayfield on Sunday.

Not since 2017 have the Scots got one over the men in green but they will fancy their chances of changing that this weekend, especially on their home patch.

Despite their opening weekend win over England, it has been a frustrating Six Nations thus far for Gregor Townsend’s outfit, as they were unable to back up that victory against Wales in Round Two before their meeting with France was postponed. That means their last run-out was a month ago so will they be cold or fresh?

It does, however, feel like the perfect time for Scotland to reignite their campaign and they showed against England that they have both the defensive and attacking game to beat anyone in their path. Yes, Ireland arrive at Murrayfield with a spring in their step after that demolition job in Rome but this is a big step up in quality.

Because of that Paris postponement, Scotland come into the fixture lying in fifth position on five points but are not out of the discussion as Wales set the pace. Ireland meanwhile are in third spot on seven points but even with a success on the road this Sunday, hopes of silverware are gone following their two opening defeats.

Last time they met

It came in the third-place play-off of the Autumn Nations Cup late last year when Ireland would come out on top, winning 31-16 at the Aviva Stadium. The first 38 minutes was a kicking duel between the two fly-halves, Jaco van der Walt and Johnny Sexton, as Scotland led 9-6, but then came the opening try of the game as a kick from Sexton caused chaos in Scotland’s in-goal area and Keith Earls pounced to make it 11-9 at the break, bringing hope of a better spectacle in the second period.

That proved to be the case as prop Cian Healy burrowed over from two metres out shortly after the resumption before things would get even better for Ireland on 50 minutes, wing Earls cantering over on the left after some delicious passing. That made it 25-9 but Scotland were not about to roll over with Duhan van der Merwe grabbing the game by the scruff of the neck to race in from 40 metres out. However, the Irish recovered to see out the match and seal third spot in the tournament.

What they said

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend has admitted his team must be at their very best at Murrayfield this weekend, saying: “We are well aware of the threats posed by an experienced Ireland squad and our players have prepared for a contest they know is going to require one of their best performances.

“Playing Ireland is always a physical affair and one that demands you keep stepping up to make tackles or contest for possession. They have played well in their opening three games of the Championship and have some outstanding players in their squad. It should be a cracking game.”

On his selection of Jamison Gibson-Park at scrum-half, Ireland head coach Andy Farrell said: “He has progressed a lot. Obviously he was new to international rugby and – although his international career has been quite short – he’s had some pretty big experiences, going away to Twickenham and being involved in some big games for us.

“He’s more comfortable in his role in and around the side.

“He understands what it takes now to be a top-class international scrum-half and deal with the pressures of the game and he understands the difference between the club game and the international game, so he’s thriving in the role.”

Players to watch

Where to begin? Despite all of the buzz before the tournament surrounding Scotland wing Duhan van der Merwe, it has been something of a quiet Six Nations thus far for the South African-born finisher, as opposition defences have managed to contain him well. But switch off for one second and this behemoth of a man will punish you and that will have been the message from Ireland’s coaching team and analysts in the lead-up to the game. If Scotland can utilise Van der Merwe’s threat as much as possible then their chances of keeping their title hopes alive will increase significantly, as few teams can live with the Edinburgh star in full flow.

In green we opt for a flanker who grabbed his chance with both hands against Italy a fortnight ago. Will Connors was outstanding on the openside for Ireland in Rome as he scored two tries and put in quite a shift around the field. The Leinster back-row is known for his destructive work in defence and broke onto the Test scene in 2020, against the Azzurri, with a man-of-the-match performance. He did likewise last time out and will be eager to build on that at Murrayfield as he looks to nail down a starting jersey long-term. If he can replicate the form we know he is capable of then it’s going to be tough for Farrell to leave him out.

Main head-to-head

Two players in the frame for British & Irish Lions selection will battle it out at fly-half on Sunday as Finn Russell faces off with Johnny Sexton. At present, the 10 shirt against South Africa in the upcoming series is very much up for grabs, with no player really on top form this Six Nations. Russell is many people’s choice, due to the attacking weapons in his arsenal, but one can’t discount the experienced Sexton who looked revitalised against Italy in their last outing. It’s going to be a fascinating tussle as head coach Warren Gatland watches on, with time running out for players to stake their claim.

Prediction

Recent meetings between these sides have not made for pretty reading for the Scots, but we’re just leaning towards them ending that drought this weekend, despite Ireland coming into this one with their tails up after Rome. Scotland by three.

Previous results

2020: Ireland won 31-16 in Dublin
2020: Ireland won 19-12 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 27-3 in Yokohama
2019: Ireland won 22-13 at Murrayfield
2018: Ireland won 28-8 in Dublin
2017: Scotland won 27-22 at Murrayfield
2016: Ireland won 35-25 in Dublin
2015: Ireland won 28-22 in Dublin

The teams

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg (c), 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 WP Nel, 2 George Turner, 1 Rory Sutherland
Replacements: 16 David Cherry, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 Simon Berghan, 19 Grant Gilchrist, 20 Nick Haining, 21 Scott Steele, 22 Huw Jones, 23 Darcy Graham

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Will Connors, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Andrew Porter, 19 Ryan Baird, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Billy Burns, 23 Jordan Larmour

Date: Sunday, March 14
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 15:00 GMT
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Alex Ruiz (France)