S14 Preview: Stormers v Waratahs

A packed Newlands stadium will be treated to two teams going full tilt for a place in the Super 14 final when the Stormers host the Waratahs.

A packed Newlands stadium will be treated to two teams going full tilt for a place in the Super 14 final when the Stormers host the Waratahs at their Cape Town fortress on Saturday.

It's the hosts' first home Super Rugby semi-final in eleven years and their first play-offs appearance since 2004, whilst the Waratahs have been there done that having secured a place in the top four for the fourth time in six years.

The visitors may hold the upper hand as far as finals rugby is concerned, but no Australian side has ever won a Super Rugby play-off match in South Africa.

The Waratahs were beaten 27-6 by the Stormers at the same venue during the round-robin phase of the competition and will have to overturn that form and also beat what has become an almost insurmountable hurdle for away teams in semi-finals.

It is eight years since a visiting team last won a knock-out clash, with the Waratahs defeated by fellow Australian side, the Brumbies, in 2002. The necessity of flying to South Africa after playing their final group game in Sydney makes the task even more difficult for the 'Tahs.

To make matters worse, they come up against a side who have a home record of six wins from seven outings – including the last five on the trot.

After completing a rare hat-trick of wins in South Africa last season, the Waratahs lost both their matches in the Republic this campaign (to the Stormers and defending champion Bulls in rounds two and three). There's little doubt then that gears three to five will be required if Chris Hickey's travel-weary team wish to cause an upset.

Whilst there's no magic formula to scoring a rare win in a rugby-mad country like South Africa, the Waratahs – widely condemned as boring in recent seasons – will at least take plenty of confidence from the franchise-record 385 points racked up so far in 2010, including 45 tries, another record haul.

Tries will come in handy against the Stormers who ended the league phase with an incredible defensive record, conceding just 17 tries in 13 matches. Few attacking teams have managed to breach their well organised line, and when they have, the scrambling defence has often got back to prevent a try.

Though the Stormers will start as favourites due to home-ground advantage, they are light in experience at this stage of the competition.

Only captain Schalk Burger and wing Bryan Habana have been involved in a Super Rugby semi-final before, while the pair – along with Jaque Fourie and Ricky Januarie – have won a World Cup and a Tri-Nations with the Boks. But it's uncharted territory for the bulk of the team.

The Australian side finished third on the log, a single bonus-point behind the Stormers, with both teams winning nine matches and losing four. That pretty much sums up how close this game will be and Cape Town can expect a cracking match on Saturday night.

Ones to watch:

For Stormers: Apart from his efficiency in the line-out, Andries Bekker has been a colossus in the physical exchanges, a constant presence on attack and excellent in fielding kick-offs. In short, you can expect to find him all over the field for the entire eighty minutes.

For Waratahs: Full-back Kurtley Beale has stepped it up in the final rounds of the Super 14 competition scoring four tries in the previous three matches. Can he continue his fine form into the semi-finals against the Stormers?

Super head to head: Gio Aplon v Drew Mitchell. On paper, the Wallaby flyer up against the former Sevens speedster should be a mismatch. However put these two opposites on a rugby field and you'll see plenty of fireworks. Both are in impressive form – Mitchell's finishing has seen him notch a competition-best nine tries, while Aplon has sparked some of the best tries witnessed all season for the Stormers. Mitchell may have more power, but Aplon has more pace. Mitchell may be bigger, but Aplon will never hold back… no matter the size of the defender.

Prediction: All signs point to a Stormers win. But there is encouragement for the Waratahs in the fact that three of the four defeats suffered by the Stormers this season have been against Australian sides while before this season, the Australians had won three and drawn one of their previous five matches against the Stormers, including a win and a draw in Cape Town. Still, that was then and this is now. Stormers to win by four points.

The teams:

Stormers: 15 Joe Pietersen; 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan De Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana; 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (c), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg and 1 Wicus Blaauw.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Eusebio Guinazu, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Willem De Waal, 22 Tim Whitehead.

Waratahs: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 6 Patrick McCutcheon, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Dan Palmer.
Replacements: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Chris Thomson, 19 Dave Dennis, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Daniel Halangahu, 22 Rory Sidey.

Date: Saturday, 22 May
Venue: Newlands Stadium, Cape Town
Kick-off: 19:10 (17:10 GMT)
Referee: Mark Lawrence
Assistant referees: Marius Jonker, Cobus Wessels
Assessor: Shaun Veldsman