S14 Preview: Round Ten, Part One

With five weeks left in the round robin and 25 points up for grabs, there's going to be a rollercoaster ride for Super 14 franchise fans.

With five weeks left in the round robin and 25 points up for grabs, there's going to be a rollercoaster ride for Super 14 franchise fans.

With the table fairly congested and ten teams still in the hunt for play-off spots, no quarter will be asked or given.

It seems New Zealand's hopes of a title are pinned solely on the seven-time champion Crusaders unless fundamental changes can be implemented by the Chiefs, Blues and Hurricanes, who deserve no better than their perches from seventh to ninth.

Australia couldn't get a side into last year's play-offs but three are firmly in the race this time, while the Bulls and Stormers still remain the favourites to represent South Africa come semi-final kick-off.

Chiefs vs Stormers

The Stormers have claimed five points from two tour matches, and they'll be chasing a much needed bonus-point win when they square up against the Chiefs in Hamilton on Friday.

On current form, the odds are stacked heavily against the Chiefs repeating their 2009 final reaching effort and indeed it would hardly be a surprise to see them slip out of contention this weekend when they come up against an impressive Stormers unit.

The seventh-placed Chiefs suffered their fourth defeat of the season last week, going down 19-33 to the table-topping Bulls. They have now lost all three of their home fixtures at Waikato Stadium to date after winning all three of their opening games for the first time on an overseas tour. And their cowbell-clanging supporters will know that another loss will spell the end for their team.

A never-ending casuality list hasn't made matters any easier for the Chiefs. Their first-choice front row and locks are injured, while they also have the likes of captain Mils Muliaina (broken thumb) and All Black wing Sitiveni Sivivatu (knee) on the sidelines. So it's a rather depleted Chiefs team battling to stay afloat.

However, the men from Cape Town will know better than to get sucked into talk that Friday's opposition are weakened by injuries and there for the taking. The Stormers learned those lessons the hard way in the losses to the Brumbies and Force. If they don't perform to their potential, they will once again be vulnerable.

The Stormers showed resilience in recovering from their upset loss to the Force by notching a 33-21 win over the Blues in Auckland. Captain Schalk Burger and his troops showed New Zealand soil held no fears for them last week as they moved to within one competition point of the second-placed Crusaders.

However if they'd secured the four-try bonus, they'd be in second place instead of a precarious fourth.

The Stormers are well-placed at this point, but their path to the play-offs is increasingly steep. They travel back to Brisbane next week to tackle the Reds before returning to South Africa where they'll face the Crusaders, Sharks and Bulls in successive matches.

The Stormers' dominance at the collision area and at set-piece time against the Blues is an ominous sign for a Chiefs side that has struggled dreadfully in those areas this season. The visitors will do well to stick with what's working for them and not change much in terms of their approach this week.

They face a team that are quite similar to the Blues in that any mistakes made against them will be punished.

Chiefs coach Ian Foster – who is desperate to revive his side's misfiring attack – observed the Stormers lifted their game a notch since making the long trip from South Africa, suggesting an entertaining spectacle this weekend.

“Against the Blues they went up a cog in terms of their attacking structure and options. They played a little bit wider and the likes of (Jaque) Fourie, (Bryan) Habana and (Gio) Aplon, they like to use their footwork and sniff opportunities a bit wider,” he said.

“It's going to be a bit more across the park in terms of the threats this week.”

Super head to head: Brendon Leonard v Dewaldt Duvenage. Duvenage has rotated with Ricky Januarie on several occasions this season, but keeps his number nine jersey after a polished performance last week in Auckland. He's maintained a standard of excellence when it comes to tactical kicking and quick service at the breakdown, the cornerstones upon which the Stormers' game-plan is built. But Duvenage will be up against one of the best in Leonard on Friday, a player who lends his team plenty of momentum with penetrative surges.

Prediction: There is no reason that the Stormers cannot repeat their success this weekend, but desperation will make the Chiefs dangerous opponents. The Kiwis' semi-final hopes will be dashed if they suffer another defeat and the Stormers can therefore expect a determined onslaught. Chiefs to win by three points.

The teams:

Chiefs: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Stephen Donald, 11 Dwayne Sweeney, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Sione Lauaki, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam (c), 5 Culum Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Vern Kamo, 17 Nathan White, 18 Romana Graham, 19 Colin Bourke 20 Junior Poluleuligaga, 21 Callum Bruce, 22 Jackson Willison.

Stormers: 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 François Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (c), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 JD Moller.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 JC Kritzinger, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Willem de Waal, 22 Tim Whitehead.

Date: Friday, April 16
Venue: Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand), Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)

Brumbies vs Hurricanes

The injury-struck Brumbies face a desperately-seeking Hurricanes outfit in Canberra, and a loss this week could end either side's chances of being around at the business end of the season.

Barring a miracle, the Hurricanes – who started the 2010 season as third favourites to take the title – are on track to miss the play-offs for the first time since 2007. Unbelievably, they've not tasted victory since Round Three!

They now face the daunting prospect of having to win their last five matches with a few bonus points to boot to have any chance of sneaking into the semi-finals. It's a scenario that Colin Cooper's side aren't really used to having reached the play-offs four times over the last five years and, in 2006, even hosted a final.

In the 'Canes defence, it must be said that a few results this season were hanging in the balance until the last minute of play. They were pipped at the post by the Bulls in Pretoria by one point, denied a last-gasp draw against the Sharks by