S14 Final Preview: Bulls v Stormers

The Bulls and Stormers will lock horns in Saturday's historic Super 14 Final at Orlando Stadium where a titanic battle awaits.

And then there were two. The Bulls and Stormers will lock horns in Saturday's historic Super 14 Final at Orlando Stadium in Soweto where a titanic battle awaits.

Few would argue that the two best teams in this year's tournament have reached the grand finale, and all that remains to be settled now is who really is the best.

They met in the final league match of the competition, won 38-10 by the Stormers at Newlands. But don't read too much into that one-sided encounter – only seven beaten Bulls return from the Round 14 starting line-up, and they're all on the bench.

While it won't be the first time two South African sides compete for one of the most prized possessions in southern hemisphere rugby, it will be the first time the Final is contested between the great North-South rivals.

Victory for the Bulls – which would give them their third title in four years – would elevate them to joint-second place, behind the Crusaders, as the best team in Super Rugby history. The Crusaders have won seven titles, while the Bulls have two. The Blues are currently in sole second place, with three titles.

A win for the Stormers, however, would see them become only the fifth team since 1996 to capture the title. It is their first final after previously falling out of contention in two previous semi-finals.

They might only be featuring in their third knock-out series in fifteen years of Super Rugby, but the Stormers showed no sign of the finals wobbles against the Wararahs that might have been expected given their novice pedigree in this field.

Playing at Soweto, as opposed to in Pretoria, is hardly a negative either. While the Bulls clearly had the crowd in its corner last weekend against New Zealand opposition, a significant and vociferous Stormers element should be seen among Saturday's gathering, reducing the affect of the intimidating fervour the Bulls often create at a packed Loftus Versfeld.

The visitors will welcome any help from the sidelines they can get as their recent record against the Bulls is pretty dire. However, past results mean nothing in finals rugby and the Stormers are expected to make a real fist of it against their old South African rivals.

Schalk Burger and his troops head to Johannesburg on the back of their best ever home run in Super Rugby. Newlands provided the back drop for seven wins from eight home games for the Stormers, comfortably eclipsing their previous best home return of five from seven during their run to a home semi-final eleven years ago.

The Stormers also boast the meanest defence in the tournament this season, having let in just 17 tries from 14 games. Last weekend was the third time this year that they have kept their try-line in tact, with two of those occurring against the Waratahs.

At the other end of the scale, the Bulls advance to the decider having scored more tries than anyone else, with last week's three tries against the Crusaders taking their season tally to fifty.

Both sides have broken the old team record for penalty goals in a season, another indication that they can create and take scoring opportunities through relentless pressure.

Not only have the Stormers given up the fewest tries, they are also the most disciplined side in the competition in terms of the number of penalties they have given up, while they have been issued with just one yellow card all season. By comparison, the Bulls have had players dispatched to the sin bin on five separate occasions.

Expect nothing new from the Bulls, and also forget that it will be a dour battle for honours – although there will be patches of play where both sides will vie to imprint their supremacy up front. After all, good ball is what the game breakers want and for that the hard slog is needed.

But a final is largely about mental attitude and confidence. Both these psychological factors impact on the calm needed for execution of the systems put in place during the season. And it is here that the Bulls, with their greater experience, have the edge.

The factor that could, however, sink them is too much confidence. A loss of focus at any stage – something the Bulls have been prone to this season – could upset the applecart and with it the whole season's hard work.

Everything considered the bookies are probably right in making the Bulls 1-2 favourites. This is not a match the Stormers will easily win, but it could well be a match that the Bulls can lose.

Ones to watch:

For Bulls: All eyes will be on South Africa's all-time leading points' scorer in Super Rugby once again this weekend – it's pretty hard not to when Morne Steyn is lining up kick after kick. The Bulls pivot accumulated 21 points to boot the Crusaders out of last year's semi-final, and ran up 24 last weekend to advance his tally for the season to 243. Last Saturday's work included six penalty goals, including a boomer from his own side of halfway. Stormers' fans may love Steyn when he's playing for the Boks, but no doubt will be cursing him when those flags are raised behind the posts.

For Stormers: The biggest attacking game breaker in the country – and indeed the Super 14 competition – is Stormers' acquisition from the Lions, Jaque Fourie. How he was overlooked for a starting test berth by Peter de Villiers last year in favour of Adi Jacobs defies logic – and Fourie is the man the Bulls will have to watch more than anybody else.

Super head to head: Check out our in depth individual analysis from one to fifteen.

Previous results:
2010: Stormers won 38-10, Cape Town
2009: Bulls won 14-10, Pretoria
2008: Bulls won 16-9, Cape Town
2007: Bulls won 49-12, Pretoria
2006: Bulls won 43-10, Cape Town

Prediction: With both sides packed with Springboks – boasting 25 between them – Saturday's Final will no doubt be a game of Test-match intensity. If the Stormers lead at half-time, chances are they have what it takes to go all the way, as they have won 10 of the 11 matches this year in which they have led at the mid-point. But the difference on Saturday could be that the Bulls have more firepower in their forwards to implement a winning strategy successfully. Plus you can't beat experience when it comes to these big games and the home team has plenty of history on their side.
It will be close though. Bulls to win by three points.

The teams:

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Bees Roux, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Derick Kuün, 20