Report suggests English rugby is stalling

A new report, the Carnegie Review of Rugby, suggests that while the game is currently in good health in England, the spectacular expansion of recent years is going to come to a halt.

A new report, the Carnegie Review of Rugby, suggests that while the game is currently in good health in England, the spectacular expansion of recent years is going to come to a halt.

The review focuses on the sport as an industry, intended as such to be a counterpart to soccer's annual Deloitte review which has been the soccer industry's benchmark for 16 years.

It was compiled by the sporting partnerships team at Leeds Metropolitan University's Carnegie faculty and commissioned by Rugby Expo to coincide with its inaugural summit, in London on Monday and Tuesday.

“We are not pretending to have all the answers, but we are hoping to ask some of the right questions,” said the report's author, Chip McClure, to The Guardian.

“We hope this initial report will act as a trigger so we can, in future, offer greater and more meaningful in-depth analysis.

“The industry has a lot less to worry about than football.

“That is because sponsorship is spread over a wide series of sectors. That should help to reduce any risk and the sport as a whole is comparatively solvent.

“There have been and continue to be many challenges. Rugby of whatever code, wherever it is played, continues to grow and change to meet those challenges.”

But the credit crunch and a likely saturation of the sport into its new markets will not help to sustain the growth, and there are some more localised dangers for a myriad of reasons.

For example, while the overall attendance figure continues to grow in the sport, some specific clubs and areas are struggling. Bath's protracted expansion problems at the Rec have seen their figures level out because of the lack of space, while Newcastle's figures continue to fall.

“It is estimated that as many as one in three games is sold out and that stadia are operating to an average 85 per cent capacity,” McClure said.

“Some clubs such as Sale, Leicester, Bath, Gloucester and Worcester frequently record locked gates.

“These headline figures are indeed impressive but they disguise the true picture, which is less rosy. Eight clubs recorded a reduced average attendance in '07-08 from the previous year. The overall drop in average attendance was 6.7 per cent.

“This would be more pronounced if it weren't for big increases at London Wasps, Harlequins and Gloucester. The northern clubs continue to attract significantly lower crowds.”

Rugby has certainly broken into new markets and increased its profile dramatically since the Millennium. But as belts are tightened and soccer continues to dominate, it could be that rugby will have to undergo a levelling-off period in its popularity, or even a brief recession as strategies are adapted to suit the stalling industry climate.

“The competition is still heavily reliant on the popularity of international rugby for awareness,” concluded McClure.

“In addition, there are indications that saturation point is being reached and opportunities for growth are harder to find.”