Race to the ITM Cup semis

The final round of the ITM Cup is closing in with three semi-final positions still up for grabs…

The final round of regular season play in the ITM Cup comes to a close this weekend with three semi-final places still up for grabs. Only Canterbury are assured a spot in the top four.

The defending champions are five points (45) clear atop the tournament standings after the penultimate round of New Zealand's domestic championship and any points against Waikato will secure the red and blacks a home semi.

Should Rob Penney's men progress to the final, a first-place finish on the log after this weekend's action will also give them a chance at defending their crown in Christchurch on November 5.

Waikato are second with 40 points following a last-gasp 27-25 win over lowly Manawatu. The Mooloo Men have a chance of reaching the play-offs for the first time since 2007 – a win against Canterbury could even see a home semi-final. However, a loss and failure to bag any points could see them miss out entirely.

The same can be said of third-placed Auckland who share the same points as Waikato (40). However, their task has been made slightly easier with a meeting against eleventh-placed Tasman at Eden Park where a win will put them through.

If Waikato lose to Canterbury, Auckland only need four points from their match against the Makos to host one of the play-offs. However, if the Mooloos beat Canterbury without a bonus, Auckland will need to bag maximum points against Tasman to secure a semi. If Waikato end Round 13 with a four-try bonus point, Auckland will miss out on a home semi-final.

Wellington were the big movers last weekend, boosting up to fourth on 38 points following a 49-15 home win against Taranaki and now have their fate in their own hands. A win against Southland at Invercargill on Saturday would secure a semi-finals spot. If Canterbury can beat Waikato, Auckland lose to Tasman and Wellington win against Southland, then there will be a game at Westpac Stadium.

Taranaki and Bay of Plenty, who bagged an impressive 33-22 win against Southland at Mt Maunganui, are snapping at Wellington's heels – both with 37 points.

They have away matches against North Harbour and Northland, respectively, this week and would fancy their chances of breaking into the top four if Wellington slip up.

Mathematically, Southland are still a top-four chance if they were to pick up a bonus-point win over Wellington, Taranaki lose to North Harbour and Bay of Plenty are toppled by Northland. But it has a sense of lotto odds about it.

The bright side is Southland are now confirmed to be in the top-seven section of next year's competition, with eighth-placed Counties Manukau unable to get past the Stags.

It means the bottom seven that will make up the Championship division next year have been decided with Counties unlucky to miss out after such a successful season, having ended 2009 rock bottom.

Other teams to miss out on the Premier League next year are Hawke's Bay, Northland, Tasman, North Harbour, Manawatu and Otago.

ITM Cup semi-final contenders:

Canterbury:
Currently: First
Best finish: First
Worst finish: Second

Waikato:
Currently: Second
Best finish: First
Worst finish: Sixth

Auckland:
Currently: Third
Best finish: Second
Worst finish: Sixth

Wellington:
Currently: Fourth
Best finish: Second
Worst finish: Seventh

Taranaki:
Currently: Fifth
Best finish: Second
Worst finish: Seventh

Bay of Plenty:
Currently: Sixth
Best finish: Second
Worst finish: Seventh

Southland:
Currently: Seventh
Best finish: Fourth
Worst finish: Seventh