Preview: Wellington v Southland

Wellington will be gunning to make their fourth Air NZ Cup final in a row when they come up against Southland in Saturday's semi-final showdown at the Cake Tin.

Wellington will be gunning to make their fourth Air New Zealand Cup final in a row when they come up against Southland in Saturday's semi-final showdown at Westpac Stadium.

The Lions have become all too familiar with knock-out rugby, they've been there done that and have several runners-up medals to show for it. But this time, they could finally break their winner's drought.

However, there's still one tricky task facing the men from the capital before another shot at the title is even thought about – a rematch against the Stags, the same outfit beaten by Wellington in the semis a year ago.

Both teams are on a high following a good run of form of late, with Southland perhaps running the risk of coming back down to earth with a loud thud following their Ranfurly Shield win over Canterbury last week.

At least that's what Lions fans will be hoping for when the two teams square off, and whether Southland will be suffering from a lingering hangover from their Christchurch heroics remains to be seen. Should they turn up looking green, Wellington – who gave up the Log o'Wood earlier this season – will take full advantage.

Southland must not only come down from the high of their Shield heist but must also overcome a dreadful record against Wellington. They have won just 23 of 89 games and haven't prevailed against their North Island rivals since a 22-20 win in Invercargill seven years ago.

Southland's Air New Zealand Cup campaigns have ended at the hands of Wellington in the play-offs for each of the last two years, succumbing 45-3 in the 2007 quarter-finals and 28-19 in last year's semis. The latter match was a tight affair, with Southland holding a narrow lead entering the final quarter.

They were also within sight late in this year's Round Nine meeting in Wellington before the hosts pulled clear, scoring four tries in a 32-13 win. For a side who have conceded less than fourteen points a game this season, it was a rare lapse from the Southlanders, who strangled the life out of Canterbury in last week's 9-3 triumph.

Wellington have been on a five-match winning streak since that win while Southland won their last three regular-season matches to qualify one spot below them in third place.

However it should be pointed out that the Lions unbeaten run towards the tail-end of the season was against teams that finished 11th, 13th, 12th and ninth – hardly big guns but all gave Wellington a scrap for at least half the match.

The Lions, who have had a patchy season compared to last year, have at least proved – unlike Canterbury – that without their All Blacks they have been a formidable unit.

Though in terms of experience, Southland may hold the upper hand with a whopping eleven Lions players taking part in their first semi-final with the Wellington team.

Lions coach Jamie Joseph has also opted to change a few combinations. This perhaps is the only advantage the Stags have going into this match – stability.

But should Southland go down in Wellington again, they won't be remembered as the Stags team that lost in the semi-finals but rather the class of 2009 that brought the Ranfurly Shield home for the summer.

And that, one feels, should be enough reason to celebrate a memorable campaign… though it isn't over until the fat Stag sings!

Ones to watch:

For Wellington: The Lions enter this clash as the joint best attacking team in the competition, having scored 40 tries during the round-robin series along with Canterbury and Hawke's Bay. Most of them have come from winger Hosea Gear (the leading try-scorer in the competition last year), and after being discarded by the All Blacks – the Wellington try-scoring machine will have a point to prove!

For Southland: Southland will be without inspirational number eight David Hall (knee injury) with Hua Tamariki coming in as his replacement. Tamariki is no stranger to mixing it up with the big boys at this level and has played five games for the Stags earlier this season. A solid performance is needed at the base of the scrum, but whether the big man sinks or swims with semi-final pressure hanging his shoulders remains to be seen.

Head to head: This season, Southland have moved away from a forward-orientated approach, turning to a hard-running backline in which midfielders Kendrick Lynn and Jason Kawau have been outstanding. If conditions permitted Southland would be giving the ball lots of air, which means the Lions centre pairing of Shaun Treeby and Alapati Leuia will need to be sharp on attack and defence.

Prediction: Southland have the potential to take this one, or at least make a game of it. But we feel that the Stags put all their efforts into last week's Ranfurly Shield win, and may have left their tired bodies back in the deep south. Wellington to win by nine points.

The teams:

Wellington: 15 Apoua Stewart, 14 David Smith, 13 Alapati Leuia, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Piri Weepu, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Mathew Luamanu, 7 Serge Lilo, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Daniel Ramsay, 4 Jacob Ellison (c), 3 Anthony Perenise, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Arden David-Perrot, 18 Mark Reddish, 19 Scott Fuglistaller, 20 Fa'atonu Fili, 21 Robert Fruean, 22 Daniel Kirkpatrick.

Southland: 15 Glen Horton, 14 Matt Saunders, 13 Kenny Lynn, 12 Jason Kawau, 11 Tony Koonwaiyou, 10 Robbie Robinson, 9 Scott Cowan, 8 Hua Tamariki, 7 Tim Boys, 6 John Hardie, 5 Joe Tuineau, 4 Josh Beckhuis, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (c).
Replacements: 16 Brayden Mitchell, 17 Fai Mika, 18 Dave Gannon, 19 Dion Bates, 20 Sonny Rangitoheriri, 21 Seminar Manu, 22 James Wilson.

Date: Saturday, October 31
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19.05 (06.05 GMT)
Referee: Chris Pollock
Assistant referees: Keith Brown, Garratt Williamson
TMO: Glenn Newman